ISABEL VAN BRUGEN
Ukrainian forces breaking through defensive positions in the southeastern settlement of Robotyne will reveal the next phase of how fighting in Kyiv's counteroffensive will play out, a think tank assessed, shortly before a Ukrainian official announced that the village had been liberated.
The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based think tank, said in its latest analysis of the conflict in Ukraine on Sunday that ambiguities about Russian defensive positions in Ukraine's south mean it is unclear how the "next phase" of fighting will transpire. Breaking through these defensive positions, however, will reveal how the counteroffensive could progress.
Kyiv is three months into its counteroffensive to recapture territory seized by Russia and Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that the push to liberate its territories has so far been difficult.
The ISW cited a Ukrainian soldier, "likely operating in the Robotyne area" as describing in detail complex Russian defensive positions. These include a system of interconnected trenches and dugouts scattered with anti-tank ditches and minefields. He suggested Ukrainian forces were working to demine these in order to advance further.
The defensive positions are the result of months of Russian preparation, the ISW said, noting that it's unclear at this stage if they have been extended further south by Russian forces.
"The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire," the think tank assessed.
On Monday morning, hours after the release of the ISW assessment, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced that Kyiv's forces had recaptured Robotyne and are attempting to advance further.
"Robotyne has been liberated," she said during a national broadcast on Monday, Ukrainska Pravda reported.
"In the south, we are carrying out an offensive. This is our main offensive front. In Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, the enemy is on the defensive," Maliar said. "Our troops are moving southeast of Robotyne and south of Mala Tokmachka."
She added that Ukrainian forces had also recaptured 1 square kilometer (0.39 square mile) around Bakhmut, an industrial city in the Donetsk region that has seen some of the most intense fighting of the war.
The ISW said the next Russian "defensive layer will, nevertheless, very likely pose significant challenges for the Ukrainian advance."
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