Nandita Banerji
If global warming reaches or exceeds two degrees Celsius by 2100, it could lead to deaths of roughly a billion people, a study quantifying future harms caused by carbon emissions has found.
Mainly richer humans would be responsible for the deaths of mainly poorer humans over the next century, it said, comparing it to involuntary or negligent manslaughter.
The analysis suggested aggressive energy policies to enable immediate and substantive decreases in carbon emissions. It also recommended a heightened level of government, corporate and citizen action to accelerate the decarbonisation of the global economy, aiming to minimise the number of projected human deaths.
The major review of 180 articles from scientific literature was authored by Joshua Pearce, University of Western Ontario’s John M Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Richard Parncutt from the University of Graz, Austria. It was published in journal Energies on August 19, 2023.
The oil and gas industry, which includes many of the world’s most profitable and powerful companies, directly and indirectly emits more than 40 per cent of carbon emissions, affecting billions of people in remote and underdeveloped communities, the paper said.
1,000-tonne rule
The authors found that peer-reviewed literature on the human mortality costs of carbon emissions converged on the “1,000-tonne rule”. The rule is an estimate that a future person is killed prematurely every time 1000 tonnes of fossil fuels are burned.
The authors also focused on changing and challenging the language and metrics of global warming to make the harsh realisties of world’s reliance on fossil fuels clearer. On recognising the direct correlation, greenhouse gas emissions liabilities can no longer be ignored, they said.
The authors advocated for a bolder approach to energy efficiency and renewable energy. They also called for prioritising several areas in energy policies to mitigate climate change.
The paper called for improved energy conservation and efficiency. Rational use of energy, supported by government programmes for industrial, agricultural, transportation, residential and household users were also supported by it.
High carbon fuels like coal, oil and natural gas should be completely replaced by zero-carbon-content fuels (hydrogen, electricity, etc) from renewable energy sources, other measures suggested.
The authors further recommended developing technologies for carbon waste management, natural capture and storage of carbon dioxide and replacement of carbon subsidies by carbon taxes.
In a statement on the university website, Pearce pointed out that energy numbers like megawatts mean something to energy engineers like him, but not to most people.
“To be clear, predicting the future accurately is hard. The 1000-ton rule is only an order of magnitude best estimate. The number of caused deaths will likely lie between a tenth of a person and 10 people per 1,000 tonnes. Regardless, the bottom line that we need to act fast is still crystal clear,” said Pearce.
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