18 September 2023

Lee Headed Towards Canadian Maritimes


Lee continues to speed northward towards the Canadian Maritimes this weekend. Meanwhile, Margot continues to churn in the open central Atlantic, but will only be a threat to shipping lanes.

As of 8 a.m. AST (EDT), Lee is now a Post-Tropical Cyclone and was located near 42.7N and 66.2W, or about 160 miles south-southeast of Eastport, Maine, or about 185 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Lee’s top sustained winds are 80 mph, which makes it a Category 1 equivalent hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. Lee is speeding north at 25 mph, and its minimum central pressure is 965 mb, or 28.50 inches of mercury.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from New Brunswick from the U.S.-Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island. Additional Hurricane Watches are in effect for Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Westport, Mass., northward towards the U.S.-Canada border, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. Additionally, Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for New Brunswick from the U.S.-Canada border to Fort Lawrence which includes Grand Manan Island and from Shediac to Tidnish, as well as Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Prince Edward Island, Madalen Islands, New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac and for Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove and Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper.

Lee will generally move in a north or north-northeast direction today. Lee will gradually weaken today as it encounters stronger winds throughout the atmosphere and moves over cooler waters of the Atlantic. Despite the gradual weakening, Lee will likely remain the equivalent of a low-end hurricane through today.

Lee will create dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents across Bermuda into the entire East Coast, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick through this weekend.

Lee is expected to make landfall somewhere in southwestern Nova Scotia or in New Brunswick this afternoon. While Lee has made the transition from a hurricane into a post-tropical cyclone, the impacts across New England and eastern Canada will not be any different.

Bands of heavy to very heavy rain will continue to move over Cape Cod, eastern portions of Maine, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia this morning. While rain will come to an end this afternoon over Cape Cod, rain will continue into early Sunday over Maine, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Gusty winds will occur, especially closer to the New England coast, including Cape Cod. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will also continue throughout the Eastern U.S. into the Canadian Maritimes.

Tropical Storm Margot continues to spin over the open central Atlantic. As of 9 a.m. GMT (5 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Margot was located near 35.0N and 38.3W, or about 660 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Margot is packing top sustained winds of 60 mph. It is moving toward the southwest at 7 mph and has a minimum central pressure of 990 mb, or 29.24 inches of mercury.

Margot will remain a threat to shipping lanes across the open central and northern Atlantic throughout this week. Dry air and an increasingly hostile upper-level environment will lead to gradual weakening of Margot through the weekend.

Tropical Depression 15 (TD 15) is moving across the central Atlantic. As of 5 a.m. AST (EDT), it was located near 17.9N and 45.3W, or about 1070 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Currently, it has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It is moving north-northwest at 14 mph and has a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, or 29.74 inches of mercury. TD 15 is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by early next week as it passes well to the northeast of the Antilles.

TD 15 will pose a threat to shipping lanes across the open central Atlantic this weekend into early next week. Warm surface sea temperatures will strengthen it into a tropical storm and then eventually a hurricane by Monday morning. Bermuda will need to keep a look out on the development of this cyclone as it looks to track near the vicinity around mid-week.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season “officially” began on June 1st and runs through November 30th. A low pressure system that formed off the Northeast coast in January was reclassified as a subtropical system. It was not given a name though since it was classified as subtropical after it had dissipated. Otherwise, this season has seen 14 tropical storms, five hurricanes, and three major hurricanes so far. This includes Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend in late August.

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