Rajiv Kumar Srivastava - Defence Commentator
G 20 provided an Evolving Successful Model of Indian Diplomatic Initiatives
Immediately on conclusion of G 20 summit, a group of five Indian Foreign Services officers came up on news identifying themselves for success of getting Delhi Declaration approval without any hiccups. Alongwith their profiles, it was underlined that this small group of Ministry of External Affairs officers went out of their way to get the consensus on the agreement. This group functioned and delivered results mainly for two reasons. One, they were specifically made responsible for achieving end results which were time bound. And two, national political aim was in sync with success of G 20 summit. High degree of diplomatic seriousness was visible. This success template was required for all the challenges this country faced externally, be it Pakistan or China and even transfer of nuclear, space, defence, energy and critical technologies.
Indian Diplomats Downplayed Seriousness of India –Tibet Border Issue
A cursory look at foreign equations with neighbouring countries will indicate that group of Indian diplomats or the Diplomatic Corps have avoided their direct involvement in resolving the India-China dispute. Since 1949, they could not give any out-of-the-box solution to the border dispute with China. A perfunctory study of the career profile of 27 Indian ambassadors posted to China after-independence, from 1950 to 2023, will reveal that all these media-savvy Indian diplomats used their tenure with China only to promote their personal career advancement. On one hand, political leaders were trying to find a solution to this complex problem, the other hand, these diplomats from Indian Foreign Service Group with brilliant minds in academia were trying to suppress vexed India China border issue. Their entire efforts appeared to have been focussed to prevent any untoward incident happening with China during their tenure. Whenever any incident happened, this diplomatic corps instead of getting to the bottom of these incidents and finding solutions, their entire energies were put behind diverting country's attention towards Chinese history or Chinese indifferences. The list of diplomats who attained prominent position after ambassadorship at China includes Shri K.R. Narayanan (07 July to 11 November 1978), the President of India. Shri Brijesh Mishra (19 April 1969 to 11 August 1973) and Shri Shiv Shankar Menon (03 August 2000 to 07 July 2003) both served as National Security Advisors. And now, current Foreign Minister Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar was the Ambassador to China from 12 August 2009 to 14 August 2013. The current External Affairs Minister's views on economic disparities between India and China as an obstacle to finding a solution actually reflected his disconnect with the common Indian sentiments towards China. He is probably not aware of the acute feelings towards China that exist in the heart of every Indian and the immense desire to take back lost land which is under Chinese illegal occupation. From the first Ambassador to China, Shri K.M. Panikkar (20 May 1950 to 12 September 1952) to Dr Subhramanyam Jaishankar, almost all these ambassadors wrote memoirs or monographs and spoke at length on China's history or contemporary economic issues, but none of them offered any practical solution to the border issue in open domain. They buried themselves only in diplomatic protocols. Similarly, 34 Foreign Secretaries have served country from 1948 to present 2023, their commitment and actions taken or initiated by them individually are recorded which now needs serious introspection and assess their individual contributions in shaping and implementing our national foreign policies towards China. Imagine the strategical fallout in region if the border issue with China is mitigated.
Indian Defence Forces to shape the Environment for Diplomatic Success
Military actions against Chinese intrusion in Arunachal in 1986 gives out mechanism of its role in defending well defined border given by the Indian Government. From June-July 1986 onwards Chinese took misadventure of inserting their troops near India – Bhutan- Tibet trijunctions of Sumdorong Chu valley. In October 1986, after lodging protest with Chinese authorities, Indian Army airlifted one brigade strength of troops and inducted in the area to encircle Chinese incursions. Troop build-up from both sides increased. Initially General K Sunderji, the Indian Army Chief was even blamed by the policy making bureaucrats for this resultant escalation in threat matrix. General K Sunderji replied; please make alternate arrangements if you think you are not getting adequate professional advice. This generated confidence among political hierarchy which made Arunachal Pradesh as full-fledged statehood of Indian Union in February 1987 itself. Throughout 1987, Indian Defence Force continued with its effort to sharpen their combat efficiencies by conducting Exercise Checkerboard involving approx six divisions and Indian Air Force. On the other hand, China inducted approx ten divisions into Eastern Tibet. Till this event of 1986, China was suffering from 1962 illusion of a weak Indian Army, which was not so. These strong stands taken by General K Sunderji in Arunachal Pradesh embolden Indian Prime Minister to discuss border issues with China from a respectable position on his visit to Beijing from 19 - 23 December 1988. Indian Army actions shaped the environment for successful diplomatic initiative. This summit resulted in divorcing border issues from developing bi-lateral relations. Subsequently, a border joint commission under Ministry of External Affairs was formulated, which has made no tangible progress which could be rejoiced by Indian citizens.
After the Galwan incident, a representative of the Ministry of External Affairs attending the Corps Commander Border contact meeting with Peoples Liberation Army was publicised. Effectiveness of these meetings are questionable and token diplomatic presence can be best used to coin a new term that the country has an integrated approach to resolve border issues. This mechanism reflects serious flaw. Indian defence forces are designed to defend or launch offensive operations to protect their boundaries. LAC In North East India including Arunachal Pradesh border with Tibet Autonomous Region is well defined. Indian Defence Forces and its warriors are aware with crystal clarity on their role and level to use of degree of weapons. Minor scuffle or border line violence are discussed at various level of army commanders which are mutually acceptable. But this is not the case in Ladakh. There is more than one imaginary line. These self-proclaimed lines set conditions on patrolling activities which are confusing. Indian map which has been with us since generations and taught at schools need to be respected and honoured.
G 20 Completes Isolation and Encirclement of Chinese Energy Supply Lines
The Chinese President absence from G 20 summit was part of their deliberate diplomatic initiatives. During BRICS summit at South Africa from 23-24 August 2023, the Chinese President did not take the bilateral talks with the Indian Prime Minister seriously. Within a week of this conference, China published a controversial map in which sovereign parts of not only India but many countries connected to their land and sea were erroneously or deliberately shown as theirs. In such a situation, it was not surprising for the Chinese President to register his absence. In the last one year, China has been opposing India's activities at various Sherpa level G20 conferences. China had objections to India's slogan of Vasudev Kutumbakam and said that Sanskrit is not the official language of G20. Subsequently, meetings held in Arunachal Pradesh and Srinagar were also boycotted by them calling it disputed places. They deliberately curtailed joint declarations by registering objections to the official announcements of the Economic and Foreign Committees. At every step, China tried to hurt India's pride, but could not succeed. Most of the points articulated in the Delhi Declaration, are aimed at reducing the influence of China in the future. The most important vision of connecting Middle East Asia with Europe is to reject in Asia to challenge Chinese hegemony.
America is using all international platforms to isolate China. They want to achieve three goals by creating another war like situation in Asia Pacific. First of all, draw China for war with Taiwan so that economic sanctions like Russia could be imposed on them, which will ruin China's economic condition. Despite continuous provocation, China is avoiding attacking Taiwan because it would not be able to bear the serious consequences of the economic sanctions imposed on them. America will benefit the most by economic sanctions as most of the Chinese economic components are based on American soil. Another US goal is to sell arms to nations having military conflict with China, which is a very profitable business for them. In absence of mutual and exclusive defence treaty, India falls in to this category and the third goal is to always keep any kind of military operation away from their soil. The incident of 9/11 hurts America till date and this is the reason their intelligence system is still running on Global War on Terror.
America is continuously strengthening China's blockade by giving priority to it Pacific Ocean and South China Sea region. American President Joe Biden, returning from the conclusion of G20, went to Vietnam and signed several agreements and also promised full support in their ongoing disputes with China. This is an example of the rapid mobilization of international diplomacy against China.
Now, coming to South Asia, India has a very important role against China. Indian military action on the border dispute with China in future is now linked to likely manifestation of multi-dimensional conflict at sea, land, air and space. End result will be devastating for China. Till now, India has been responding only to ground military action in the border dispute with China. But now in the last five years, according to a very well thought out strategy, all three military organs of India are being developed and strengthened. The Air Force got Rafael, Light Combat Aircraft developed from America's jet engine technology, more capable transport aircraft, advanced radars and helicopters. With the inclusion of Agniveer in the army, the young age and advanced training of the warriors, fighting on the frontlines gave an edge in possible battles fought on high altitude hills. A platoon of the Indian Army is capable of delivering more firepower on its battlefield than ever before. India's maritime strategy is revealed through the drones recently acquired from America, half of which goes to the Indian Navy. Indian Navy will not only be able to keep an eye on every maritime ship passing through the Indian Ocean but also has the power to destroy them. Now, in case of border dispute, India is capable of stopping any Chinese ship in the Indian Ocean. This will have an adverse impact on China’s global trade and energy supply chain. In war, it is not the weapons but jointness of the warriors who wield them is important. In this direction, the Parliament of India passed a law and created three integrated commands. Under this law, the defence force divided into several headquarters has been given the ability to fight integrated battle on land, air and sea. Defence Forces have been given extensive exposure to multinational, multi-platform operational capabilities. Indian warriors are highly motivated to defend their motherland against communist ideology of PLA soldiers which may not work. Corruption among high level PLA officials has added a new humour that in the event of war Indian politicians will be able to bring many PLA commanders to defect as they do with their elected representatives. This is a paradigm shift. Now, in future, border incidents like Galwan or Doklam happens then after a certain threshold limit, China will have to be prepared for a multi-dimensional strategic contest with India.
After China's effective blockade in East and South Asia, America is now engaged in conquering the Arab countries of the Middle East Asia. The G20 policy of connecting Europe with the Middle East Asia will take Arabs energy lines economically away from China and will also reduce Europe's dependence on Russia for its energy supply.
Tibetan Religious Leader Dalai Lama and independence of Tibet
The presence of the 14th Dalai Lama in India is at the centre of India-China relations. Till now, Indian policy makers or rulers have suppressed the Dalai Lama's democratic activities on Indian soil and kept him away from the glare of open media, for which there could be several reasons.The role of Dalai Lama in Tibet and why China calls him a traitor and considers his activities dangerous to maintain its national integrity, all these dimensions are covered in history.
During G20 conference, media also published small news about Tibetan refugees demanding their independence from China at a demonstration at Majnu ka Tila at Delhi. This was symbolic, meant only to attract the attention of the heads of state at G 20. America has always been opposed to communist ideology. The relationship between China and America also affects India and Tibet. China in turn is always suspicious that America can pose a major challenge to its authority over Tibet with the help of the Dalai Lama living in exile in India. In the current situation, China has to face the threat of Taiwan War. At this time, China knows that the public rebellion in Tibet and Xinjiang region will cost it very dearly. America's support to the people of Tibet had become an old issue, but after 2020, the law related to Tibet and Xinjiang was passed by the American Senate. Separatist movement which has been going on in these areas for many years against Chinese occupation with the help of America, can become even bigger and the final stage of which can be their separation from Chinese mainland. Internal security developing in these two areas seems to be posing a serious and tough challenge to China.
After the Second World War, America's intelligence system, the CIA, has been continuously providing armed support to the people of Tibet against the Communist Party. In his autobiography, Dalai Lama's brother Gyelo Thondup, The Noodle maker of Kalimpong - The Untold Story of My Struggle for Tibet, describes the selection of Tibetan youths by the CIA, their training at a US intelligence base and their subsequent training in a highly organized intelligence base at Nepal and also in India under codename Operation Mustang. He has given detailed information about the armed conflict in Tibet. China was aware of this campaign run jointly by America, India, Nepal and the people of Tibet. As a result, China, as part of its counter- policies, openly supported the terrorists’ activities of Naga, Manipuri, Mizo and Assam in the North-Eastern states of India and also instigated Pakistan against India, which created a serious security challenge. American covert support to Tibetan continued till 1972 and was stopped only after US President Richard Nixon and his Foreign Secretary Henry Kissinger visited China from 21 to 28 February 1972 through mediation done by Pakistan. This diplomatic incident gave a big blow to the independence movement of Tibet .Even after so many years, there is no discussion on this entire episode in India and information about it is kept secret citing security concerns.
By connecting these points, China's apprehensions on Tibet’s independence through armed struggle are clearly visible. America's support to the people of Tibet has become an old issue, there is a need for our diplomats to sit with China and openly discuss what Deng Xiao told Indian Prime Minister that past mistakes must be forgotten in Tibet and find a permanent solution, which is possible.
UN and the Major countries of the World did Not Recognised Peoples Republic of China Till 25 October 1971
The China of 1948 is different from the China of today .At the end of World War II, an armed conflict began between the ruling Nationalist Party and the Chinese Communist Party to seize power in China, in which America openly supported the Nationalist Party.
On October 1, 1949, Communist Party established its dominance over the whole of China and drove Nationalist Party out of mainland to Formosa (now Taiwan). America established its embassy in Formosa. Taiwan or Formosa based China, known as the Republic of China (ROC), joined the United Nations in October 1945; and under Article 23, became one of the five permanent members of the Security Council.
But on 18 November 1949, the Communists staked their claim in the newly formed United Nations and demanded the membership of the sovereign China established by them, which was named People's Republic of China (PRC). United Nations membership was not granted. The Republic of China (ROC), whose capital was moved to Formosa, was recognised as the permanent representative of the Security Council and given all powers as a member. For two decades, the entire world, including India, was confident that China would end the Communist Party and form a democratic government. The Chinese Communist Party, which had succeeded in removing the Nationalist Party from power with public support, became even more autocratic under the leadership of Mao Zedong. They isolated themselves from the world and as part of their expansionist policies, annexed huge part of 16 bordering countries through war or threat or some autonomous regions which included regions like Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia. This action of China adversely affected its relations with the West and democratic countries.
Communist Party-dominated China gained international recognition following the passage of United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 on 25 October 1971, allowing current People’s Republic of China (PRC) to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, replacing the Republic of China (ROC) of Taiwan. This UN resolution was supported by 76 countries while 35 countries voted against Communist China. The most important thing is that after 30 years, on January 01, 1979, America also recognized the current communist People's Republic of China and withdrew support from the Nationalist Party-run government of Taiwan. Whereas India had immediately recognized Communist China and till date continues to consider Mainland China and Taiwan as one nation under the one nation policy. Analysis on these point also highlights that legally there was no approval by the United Nations for all the activities of Communist China from 1949 to 25 October 1971 .Then Indian border dispute with Tibet, the war of 1962, Aksai Chin, construction of Karakoram Road in Gilgit, transfer of Saksham valley by Pakistan to China in 1963 and their views and actions regarding the Dalai Lama are illegal at the international level. India showed its foresight and recognized Communist China from initial days itself but China continued to display cunningness by considering Indian weak.
Way Ahead
The Ministry of External Affairs along with India's Group of Ministers is responsible for drawing the outer line of the borders with China and the Ministry of Defence is responsible for setting a realistic timeline for reclaiming the lost areas with gradual capacity building. Now in awakened India, responsibilities of diplomats or defence forces will also be assessed with time. In 1972, Henry Kissinger, the US Secretary of State, surprised the world by bridging the ideological differences between the US and China, showing his foresight. That was the need of the hour for America. Similarly in 1988, Indian Prime Minister visit to China provided impetus to bilateral relations.
Now India is truly capable of challenging China. With modern improvements in road and rail communications, China will be able to build alternative road and rail lines to Xinjiang, as the old road through Aksai Chin, which once served strategic importance to them, has become less important. But under the Belt and Road Initiative, China has invested heavily in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor or Karakoram Highway, connecting the Arabian Sea and the Tibetan Autonomous Region through this part of the highway. Hence economic investment weighs heavily over military calculus. The diplomatic wisdom lies in convincing China to change the road structure or alignment away from Aksai Chin, which will cost a few hundred million dollars, which India can afford and China can use road outside Aksai Chin for its long-term economic benefits. At the same time Saksham valley can be returned to India. All parties would benefit from India mediating with China on the return of the Dalai Lama to Tibet with enhanced autonomous status within the Republic of China. The peaceful coexistence of China, India and Tibet is sure to bring tremendous benefits to all stakeholders. There is a need for China to reduce their nervousness and sit with Indian diplomats and openly discuss Tibet and find a permanent solution, which is possible. And India that is Bharat is required to replicate its G20 diplomatic success model to Sino India border dispute as well.
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