Paul D. Shinkman
Several indicators suggest that Ukraine has opened up new fronts in the east and south of the country, particularly in Luhansk – one of the two provinces Russia first invaded in 2014 – and Zaporizhzhia – a key region at the Dnipro River and home to one of Europe’s largest nuclear power plants.
Analysts in Russia, Ukraine and in the West noted late Wednesday that the Ukrainians appear to have advanced several miles along each of the fronts, while continuing to face the deeply entrenched and deadly positions of Russian fighters, who, since stalling their own offensive, have spent the past several months focused on strengthening their defenses.
“The Ukrainian counteroffensive is advancing slowly in southern Ukraine because Ukrainian forces must overcome a three-echeloned Russian defensive line,” the independent Institute for the Study of War wrote in its latest analysis note, citing statements from Ukrainian Col. Petro Chernyk.
“The Russian line of defense includes a first line of minefields stretching several kilometers wide; a second line with artillery, equipment, and personnel concentrations; and a third line of rear positions meant to preserve resources,” according to the institute. “Ukrainian counterbattery measures are especially important in order to prevent Russian artillery from targeting Ukrainian mine-clearing equipment.”
Other indications suggest Ukraine has begun deploying some of its most well-equipped and best-trained units to the front lines, a sign that it sees new opportunities for them to exploit battlefield advances – and, likely, that Ukraine feels the need to act while it still has forces in reserve.
Footage circulated online shows what appears to be a Russian drone tracking and then targeting a Western-supplied Stryker armored personnel carrier – the first time one is believed to have been fielded in Ukraine – as it sped down a narrow roadway near the front lines. Though it remains unclear what happened to the Stryker, analysts say those advanced fighting vehicles have been employed by Ukraine’s elite units and signals a forthcoming increase in counterattacks by these troops.
But Ukraine’s advances are not limited to the ground – despite Western reluctance to do more to bolster its manned air forces.
The drone war between Ukraine and Russia has similarly escalated in recent days, as Kyiv seeks – not always openly – to capitalize on its intermittent strikes against Russian cities and logistics hubs. Forces loyal to the Kremlin similarly continue to hammer Ukrainian urban centers with drone, missile and rocket barrages.
Analysts believe Ukraine has deftly used its airborne drones to conduct strikes against Moscow and elsewhere while using naval drones to maintain pressure on key corridors like the bridge connecting mainland Russia with the Crimean Peninsula.
“On land and sea, drones are playing an increasingly critical role in the Russo-Ukrainian War, and Ukraine is now demonstrating its ability to strike back,” Marcel Plichta, a former U.S. Defense Department analyst, wrote in a detailed post on the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert blog on Tuesday.
Though both sides are stepping up their drone attacks, Plichta thinks Ukraine has gained an edge.
“Recent Ukrainian drone attacks in the Black Sea and against Moscow suggest that the momentum in the drone war may be shifting in Ukraine’s favor,” he wrote. “Russia is now faced with the task of redeploying its air defenses to counter the growing threat posed by Ukraine’s increasingly sophisticated drone army. Crucially, Russia may be far more vulnerable to all-out drone warfare, with the country’s vast energy industry infrastructure presenting a particularly inviting array of potential targets for Ukrainian drone operators.”
Western intelligence, however, believes that Moscow may regain some of that edge in the coming weeks. British military intelligence concludes that Russia appears to have begun manufacturing Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones, which have become a mainstay of its aerial bombardments since beginning importing them in the fall. While still relying on Iranian imports, likely across the Caspian Sea, the Kremlin appears to be moving toward becoming self-sufficient in drone manufacturing within the coming months.
“Indigenous manufacturing will likely allow Russia to establish a more reliable supply” of the one-way attack drones, according to the new intelligence.
It adds that Ukraine – due to Western-supplied defences – remains effective at defending against the drone attacks.
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