David Ignatius
On the day when the leading Republican presidential candidate was indicted for the fourth time, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was trying to explain some of the pillars of U.S. foreign policy that are meant to endure, no matter what.
Blinken’s description of U.S. diplomacy during an interview on Monday might strike some people as whistling in the dark. But to me, it’s more like an anchor to windward. Who knows what political tempests lie ahead? But at least this administration is trying to foster partnerships and norms of behaviour — in dealing with China, Russia and Ukraine, as well as new challenges such as artificial intelligence — that are broadly based and, hopefully, sustainable.
Blinken began by describing the trilateral summit that President Biden will host with the leaders of Japan and South Korea this weekend at Camp David. Given past enmity between Tokyo and Seoul, this three-way alliance is a small miracle. It’s not an Asian NATO, Blinken said. But it provides a baseline of U.S. nuclear deterrence against threats from North Korea and China — so that Tokyo and Seoul don’t have to build their own bombs.
“This is the pillar in Asia for us,” Blinken said. Though he wouldn’t discuss what the three leaders will announce this weekend, another senior administration official said it would include “steps on data sharing for ballistic missile warning systems and other efforts to counter North Korea’s unlawful [weapons of mass destruction] and missile programs,” as well as new economic, technological and freedom-of-navigation cooperation.
Blinken then turned to China, the elephant in the room of U.S. foreign policy. His visit to Beijing in June was meant to reset a floor under what was becoming a dangerously acrimonious relationship. Blinken said “Engagement itself is important … to make clear our intent, what we’re doing and not doing,” and thereby avoid a mutually disastrous conflict. But he said there is also “a clear demand signal on both of us” from a region that doesn’t want an economically devastating war.
Whether the re-engagement with China will produce any real cooperation “remains to be seen,” Blinken said. He noted, for example, that China hasn’t offered any specific help to North Korea. “They’ve been open to having a conversation,” he said, but haven’t taken action “that has produced any results.”
One intriguing area of U.S.-Chinese cooperation was a dialogue about AI. Blinken said he discussed the subject when he was in Beijing, and “there’s a clear interest in China in talking about this at some point.” The Biden administration is already discussing AI norms with private companies and international regulators. “At some point, in some way, China will need to be part of that conversation,” he said.
This exploration of AI rules is important because it’s an essential building block for the future, regardless of who is president of the United States. The more the Biden administration can get done now in terms of creating a durable framework, the better.
Ukraine is the most obvious place where the Biden administration needs to build bipartisan, multilateral policies that can transcend the vagaries of our election system. Foreign-policy experts in the United States and Europe fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin might be trying to wait out the West in the hope that former president Donald Trump will be reelected next year and make a deal that hurts Ukraine and helps Russia.
Blinken offered a guarded assessment of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. “I think the jury is still out,” he said. “I don’t think we will know for … at least a month and maybe longer whether the counteroffensive is going to make significant strategic gains for Ukraine in terms of recovering territory.”
The secretary was also sceptical about peace prospects. “In this moment, I don’t see any kind of real opening … principally because Putin has shown no interest to date in engaging meaningfully in negotiations or diplomacy.”
But beyond the daily order of battle, “we’re also working to set up Ukraine for the medium to long term,” he said, in a way that isn’t dependent simply on a continued stream of U.S. military aid. He cited the July commitment in Vilnius, Lithuania, by the Group of Seven countries, the world’s strongest democracies, to provide a continuing flow of weapons and military training so that Ukraine can deter Russia.
“We need to have something … that is both effective and sustainable, to move to a longer-term and more sustainable posture in helping them build a world-class military,” Blinken explained. One benefit of such “long-term security assurances,” he said, is that they will “disabuse” Putin of his “conviction that he can outlast Ukraine and outlast us.”
Blinken has been with Biden for so long — going back to Biden’s days in the Senate — that the president is said to speak of his secretary of state as almost another son. He knows Biden’s strengths and weaknesses as well as anyone, and he knows the policy initiatives, such as this weekend’s Japan-South Korea summit, that are legacy items for the president.
Even at a moment when American politics seems to be in free fall, this administration has kept its feet on the ground in foreign policy. That should reassure people who care about American interests — at home and abroad.
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