Ben Solis
An independence movement that has been building inside Russia for decades has been supercharged by the Ukraine war, creating another potentially devastating crisis for Putin.
While more than a dozen former satellite nations broke away from Moscow during the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, other semi-autonomous regions remained under the control of the Kremlin, and have been struggling for freedom ever since. Now, their effort has renewed hope and momentum as the Russian regime appears significantly weakened.
Last week, the representatives of more than a dozen of these captive nations from across Russia’s far east regions, all part of an organization called the Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum, (FNPRF) gathered in Tokyo for a long-anticipated summit. There, they met with members of Japan’s House of Representatives from both major political parties to seek support for breaking from Russia and shaping a “post-Russian space.”
“Countless ethnic groups have been oppressed by Russia’s government,” Professor Yoko Hirose of Keio University told national television network NHK. “Never before have so many groups aiming to de-imperialize Russia come together in Japan,” he stressed, adding that it was “the first step toward a free and peaceful world after the war.”
The leaders of FNPRF are convinced that the collapse of Russia as it has existed since the fall of the U.S.S.R. is imminent. As such, they have emphasized the need to proactively develop a plan for “decolonization” of states like Chechnya, Dagestan, Buryatia, and Krasnodar.
The meeting marked the seventh such forum to be held since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last February. The first gathering was held last May in Warsaw, Poland, and the most recent in April at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C.
During the Tokyo conference, Japanese leaders announced their intention to create a “center to support the enslaved nations of the Russian Federation,” as well as a “Free Eurasia Coordination Center” as part of what they called the Tokyo Declaration. “From the participants who gathered from all over the world, we had the opportunity to hear the real voice of the peoples who are under the oppression of the imperialist and colonial policy of Russia,” Professor Yoshihiko Okabe, who will be the coordinator of the Free Eurasia Center, said.
One of the speakers, Inar Shelip, a senior official of the Chechen government in exile, emphasized the importance of using the Ukraine war to call attention to the broader independence movement inside Russia. “If the world had not been silent then,” Shelip said, referring to the outcome of the Second Chechen War, “there would have been no aggression today… it is time for all the people of the national independence movement to come together.”
Stanislav Suslov, a senior representative of the United States of Siberia, argued, “Russia’s return to democracy was not a safeguard against eventual relapse into dictatorship.” As such, he said, it is vital that non-Russian nations be granted sovereignty.
Dr. Maria Ochir, a representative of the Congress of the Oyrat-Kalmytsky people, said the bubbling independence movements inside Russia also have significant implications for the West’s efforts to counter the alliance between Russia and China: “The free world can prevent these authoritarian regimes from uniting by the support of sovereignty for national republics emerging in Russia.”
For Japan, the prospect of more democratic nations emerging from Russia’s Far East region is no doubt an enticing one. Japanese leaders have had conflict with China for thousands of years and have feuded with Moscow since Russian expansionism reached East Asia in the 19th century. If Japan could facilitate the establishment of friendly states within Russia’s current territory, it would be a major strategic victory.
This has made Japan a particularly strong ally of the FNPRF. As part of the Tokyo Declaration, Japanese parliamentarians, including a representative of the ruling Liberal Party, proclaimed that they are “committed to the deimperialization of the Russian Federation and liberation of all nations within the territory of Russia.”
Following the conference, a leading Japanese daily newspaper declared, “the countdown to collapse has begun.”
Other international groups have also started to take notice of FNPRF’s efforts in recent months, adding to their momentum. In June, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which enjoys observer status at the United Nations, released a statement condemning “the violently imperial and colonial nature of the State of the Russian Federation” and the “deliberate subordination of indigenous and ethnic minority nations within the Russian Federation.”
Although the Western media has largely ignored these developments, they nonetheless have the potential to dramatically alter the balance of world power. If Russia’s empire collapses, it would be a major blow to not just Moscow, but Beijing as well – and as such is something leaders in Washington and European capitals should be paying close attention to.
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