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The Ukraine military's intensified push to regain territory seized by Russia could jump-start Kyiv's slow-developing counteroffensive, but some experts say the war won't be won on the battlefield anyway.
Western officials said a surge in troops and firepower was underway in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia province, and Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Thursday that “hostilities have intensified significantly.” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, asked this week about the progress Ukraine has made, stressed that "it's not a stalemate. They're not just frozen. The Ukrainians are moving."
Some experts, however, say a stalemate is the most likely scenario.
Steven Myers, an Air Force veteran who served on the State Department's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy under two secretaries of State, told USA TODAY that one of the West’s narratives is that Putin planned to conquer Ukraine and continue west if not stopped. But Myers argues that Russia's military tactics have been "completely inconsistent with conquest." The agenda was, is and will always be to keep Ukraine out of NATO at all costs, he said.
"Strategically, this war was lost by both sides before it started. It will end in stalemate, which I now think was Putin’s intent from the get-go," Myers said. "President Biden, NATO and (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy have trapped themselves in a Catch-22 of their own making, unable to deliver on unrealistic expectations they created."
Sean McFate, a professor at Syracuse University and senior fellow at the nonpartisan Atlantic Council think tank, says Zelenskyy is "in a box. He can’t win but can’t afford to lose either." For more than a year he demanded increasingly sophisticated weapons and billions of dollars from NATO and promised to push Russia out in a spring offensive. That offensive "has been floundering," McFate says.
"NATO is experiencing donor fatigue and disappointment with Zelenskyy’s bluster," McFate told USA TODAY. "He’s losing credibility, Ukraine's main asset."
Providing Ukraine with more weapons and expecting the nation to win the war is "the definition of strategic insanity," McFate said. This war won't be won on a battlefield because no wars are won that way anymore, he said.
"The U.S. has been winning battles and losing wars for 50 years now," he said.
Jeff Levine, a former U.S. ambassador to anxious Russian neighbor Estonia, thinks Zelenskyy is doing fine and Ukrainians should feel good about what they are accomplishing. Levine says the Ukrainian leader's government has exceeded expectations on the battlefield while maintaining services and information flow to the civilian population amid a devastating war.
Zelenskyy also has made a "desperately needed" effort to combat corruption and appears to be doing a good job managing international aid and crucial bilateral relationships, Levine said.
"How the conflict will end remains the million-dollar question, but I doubt it will be on Putin's terms," Levine said. " I think Putin is suffering far more from weakened political and public support than Zelenskyy."
Developments:
◾ Ukraine's Parliament approved legislation extending martial law another 90 days, until Nov. 15. Ukrainian men 18–60, with some exceptions, are not allowed to leave the country because they may be called up for military service.
◾ The Russian-aligned Wagner Group mercenaries training in Belarus are recruiting soldiers from Belarusian military ranks − and one of the conditions of the contract is the willingness to fight in Poland and Lithuania if required, Ukraine's National Resistance Center reported.
◾ A Russian missile attack on Kivsharivka, a town of 18,000 near Kharkiv in the northeast, killed a 74-year-old woman and wounded four people, local official Oleh Syniehubov said.
'Second wave has begun':'Second wave has begun': Ukraine makes push for southern province: Live updates
China lending Russia a huge helping hand, intelligence report says
China is playing an increasingly vital role in helping Russia during its invasion of Ukraine, according to a new report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence that accuses Beijing of bolstering the Russian economy and lessening the impact of Western sanctions and export controls.
Though the Chinese government tries to present itself as neutral and even a peacemaker in the conflict, it has criticized the sanctions and the Western supply of weapons to Ukraine. In light of other countries refusing to do business with Russia after it attacked its neighbor, China has become ''an even more critical economic partner'' for Moscow, the report said, noting a large increase in semiconductors provided by Beijing.
The People's Republic of China "has increased its importation of Russian energy exports, including oil and gas supplies rerouted from Europe,'' says the unclassified report, released Thursday. "The PRC has also become an increasingly important buttress for Russia in its war effort, probably supplying Moscow with key technology and dual-use equipment used in Ukraine.''
Ukraine appears to advance in southeast as Putin claims heroic stands
Initial signs of moderate success for Ukraine's new offensive push in the southeast clashed Thursday with an upbeat report by Putin, who claimed his troops have imposed 10 times more casualties than they've taken.
His statement stood in contrast with the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think thank that said Ukrainian troops "appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv'' in the Zaporizhzhia province.
Farther east in the Donetsk province, Kyiv's forces said they liberated the village of Staromaiorske as part of Ukraine's two-pronged thrust toward its eventual goal of reaching the Sea of Azov coast and splitting the regions Russia controls in the east and south and the troops defending them.
"Our South! Our guys! Glory to Ukraine!'' Zelenskyy said in a Twitter post that included a short video of Ukrainian soldiers holding the country's flag and announcing the capture of Staromaiorske.
Earlier in the day, Putin praised his troops for “heroism” while saying they were repelling attacks in Zaporizhzhia, and he credited his military with destroying Ukraine’s equipment and inflicting heavy losses. "Unfortunately, we did not do without losses either,'' he said. "But the difference is colossal, at times more than 10 times less than that of the enemy."
The Institute for the Study of War noted the mixed reports from Russian military bloggers, who are typically hawkish and consistent in their assessments, and said they indicate "that the situation remains less than clear and that Ukrainian forces may have been more successful than assessed by Russian commentators."
Putin says Russian troops are inflicting 'colossal' losses on Ukraine
Putin praised his troops for “heroism,” saying they were repelling attacks in the Zaporizhzhia region. He credited his military with destroying Ukraine’s equipment and inflicting heavy losses to personnel. Ukraine is waging much of its counteroffensive with Western-supplied weapons and Western-trained troops. But the Russian military has dug in across much of the territory it claimed in the early days of the war, constructing vast minefields to slow Ukrainian advances while using combat aircraft and other munitions to strike Ukrainian armor and artillery.
"The enemy has very heavy losses of personnel, more than 200 people," Putin said. "Unfortunately, we did not do without losses either. But the difference is colossal, at times more than 10 times less than that of the enemy."
Ukraine fencer ousted from Worlds, refused to shake hands with Russian
Ukrainian fencer Olga Kharlan was disqualified from the World Fencing Championship after refusing to shake hands with her defeated Russian opponent, Anna Smirnova, who was competing under a neutral flag. Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the International Fencing Federation to reinstate Kharlan, saying she showed "dignity" after winning the match in Milan.
Smirnova approached the Olympic champion to shake hands, but Kharlan held up her saber in protest and walked away, the Guardian reported. Smirnova, who was competing under a neutral flag, refused to move for almost an hour.
"Anna Smirnova lost the fair competition and decided to play dirty with the handshake show," Kuleba tweeted. "This is exactly how Russian army acts on the battlefield."
Baltic countries want Russian, Belarusian athletes kept out of Olympics
The foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania released a joint statement expressing “deep concern” over the International Olympic Committee’s plan to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete at the Summer Olympics in Paris next year. The three Baltic countries, all former Soviet republics, have been among Ukraine's strongest supporters in the war and say they don't want those athletes competing under a neutral flag.
Russia has always used sports as a "tool of politics" to gain legitimacy for its regime, the statement said, adding that many Ukrainian athletes have been unable to participate in sports because of the war, and some have been killed or injured. The statement also said Ukrainian sports facilities have been destroyed by Russia's targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure.
"The desire to change borders by force, as well as the scale of war crimes and crimes against humanity constitute a gross violation of the United Nations Charter, and undermine the core principles of the Olympic movement," the statement said.
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