In an astonishing turn of events starting 23 June 2023, the Wagner Group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared all-out war on the Russian state, leading a convoy of mercenaries to march straight toward Moscow. The mutiny, which embarrassed Russian President Vladimir Putin and caught the Russian military and security services completely off guard, developed at lightning speed and ended just as quickly, leading to widespread confusion and chaos. After storming through towns and cities in southern Russia, largely unopposed and in many cases welcomed by locals, Wagner troops announced a sudden return to their field camps, following a deal cut by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Under the terms of the deal, Prigozhin accepted exile in Belarus, leaving the future of Wagner very much in question. This special report puts the Wagner Group into perspective and foreshadows the factors that will shape what happens next.
Correction: Our report published on June 25, 2023, included an error regarding the Wagner Group’s global footprint. The country of Syria was incorrectly omitted from a map on page 21. A typing mistake was also corrected on page 14. This page provides a corrected version of the special report.
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