Bradley Martin, D. Sean Barnett, Devin McCarthy
Research QuestionsWhy has the Russian invasion of Ukraine stumbled so significantly?
What are the possibilities for the ultimate outcome in Russia's attempt to challenge a Ukrainian regime?
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 22, 2022, on multiple fronts to establish Russian dominion on several provinces where separatist movements had contested Ukrainian government control. Given the apparent overwhelming imbalance in military size and capability between Ukraine and Russia, this operation was expected — both by Russian leadership and external observers — to last no more than a matter of weeks. The attack failed to achieve its stated objectives, in part because of poor planning and lack of capacity in logistics and sustainment. Similar issues have persisted, up through the time that this report was written in January 2023. In this report, authors examine the issues of logistics and sustainment facing the Russian armed forces throughout this campaign.
Key Findings
Russia's failures in the war with Ukraine were due to poor planning in that Russia did not correctly assess the logistics requirement, even if it possessed the capacity.
However, even if Russia had assessed the threat more effectively, it is not clear that Russia possessed the required force structure to execute its plans to dominate Ukraine.
Russia ran out of critical supplies early in its campaign to rapidly seize territory, but this gap appears to be largely the result of simply underestimating the resistance encountered. Russia did not provide for adequate capacity because it did not believe such a capacity would be necessary.
However, when the Russian army was required to rely on extended ground transportation, it became increasingly vulnerable to interdiction, particularly when Ukraine came into possession of standoff missile systems.
Over the course of the conflict, basic issues of poor maintenance and supply support, compounded by a lack of trained and effective maintenance personnel, have affected Russia's ability to carry out the war. To a degree, inability to carry out even basic sustainment has led to failure on the battlefield.
Also, over the longer term, Russia does not have the capacity for a long war in the face of economic sanctions. Although Russia can continue to generate revenue from oil and gas exports, it does not have the ability to manufacture advanced weapons or even sufficient materiel to keep the Russian army fielded.
Recommendation
Russia's invasion may have cautionary value for any force planning a prolonged fight and provide potential insight into how a nation can defend itself against an aggressor trying to carry out a complicated operation with major support requirements.
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