Thore Schröder
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has bogged down and soldiers have been able to do little to counter Russia's firepower. At next week's NATO summit, the West must decide how much a victory over Putin is worth and finally get serious about delivering urgently needed weapons systems.
Ukrainian soldiers near Zaporizhzhia in early July: "Too much to die and too little to live." Foto: Libkos / AP
It's a bitter realization: The Ukrainians have thus far fallen far short of the goals they set for their counteroffensive. They don't have the equipment they need for a rapid breakthrough in the southeast – they lack rocket launchers, howitzers, munitions and, especially, air defense systems and modern fighter jets. It turns out it isn't going to be easy to push out the Russian invaders.
With Ukrainian soldiers unable to adequately protect themselves, units have become stranded in minefields and are sitting ducks for combat helicopters, warplanes, drones and artillery fire. Ukrainian soldiers on the front are reporting that they can do little to counter Russia’s firepower, particularly the constant air strikes. It's also now becoming apparent why Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy begged his Western partners to send warplanes.
The much-anticipated counteroffensive has thus descended into a brutal war of attrition. The Ukrainians attack in small infantry units, moving from village to village, from woodline to woodline, suffering terrible casualties in the process. During the past week, the Ukrainians say they reclaimed a total of 38 square kilometers of territory in the southern and eastern part of the country, an area even smaller than Manhattan Island in New York.
Didn't the West give the impression that a rapid victory against a deeply entrenched Russian opponent was possible after delivering modern weaponry to Ukraine and providing its troops with training? Didn’t U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken even say in early May that the Ukrainians had "everything they need" to retake territory occupied by the Russians? And didn’t the Ukrainian leadership believe in their chances for success when they launched the counteroffensive?
The fact is that the leadership in Kyiv hardly had a choice. The expectations from their own populace and from the West to finally begin the process of reconquering occupied territory were overwhelming. On top of that were concerns that support from the United States might wane following next year’s presidential elections should a Republican like Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis emerge victorious. Neither thinks much of support for Ukraine.
A rapid advance to the Sea of Azov, cutting off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, forcing Moscow into peace talks with no preconditions – all of that was mere political fantasy. What reality looks like was recently described by a senior Ukrainian army officer in an interview with the Washington Post: Every meter is given by blood. It’s as if his Ukrainians are fighting "with bows and arrows" against Russia’s superior air power.
Even as Ukraine is doing all it can to push back the Russian invaders, the situation looks rather different among its allies. As has so often been the case since the beginning of this war, the West hesitated for so long that a setback became inevitable. It was a similar story last summer when Germany became bogged down in an endless debate about delivering heavy weaponry to Ukraine even as the Russian army had long since begun pounding the Donbas region into submission without encountering comparable resistance.
The Ukrainians need large numbers of weapons systems right now, not small numbers supplied in a slow trickle.
"It’s too much to die and too little to live," is how Markus Reisner, a military expert with the Austrian army, described Western support for Ukraine. It is an analysis that essentially applies once again today. Except for the fact that for many Ukrainian soldiers fighting on the front lines, dying is the more likely option.
Putin’s strategy in Ukraine relies on attrition and fatigue. He has shifted his country to a war economy, with tanks and kamikaze drones being produced in mass quantities. Putin can also mobilize tens of thousands more soldiers at any time. And following the Wagner Group uprising, he is likely to have become even more determined to destroy Ukraine as an independent country.
All of which leads to one single conclusion: The West must do more for Ukraine. Immediately. The Ukrainians need large numbers of weapons systems right now, not small numbers supplied in a slow trickle. More than anything, that means: F-16 fighter jets, long-range munitions, more anti-aircraft weaponry and a lot more artillery ammunition than they have been receiving so far.
"Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia, never," U.S. President Joe Biden has said. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has insisted on several occasions that Berlin will support Ukraine for as long as it takes. French President Emmanuel Macron has even gone so far as to promise that France will provide its support until Ukraine is victorious.
If these proclamations were meant seriously, then now is the time for action. The NATO summit slated for next week is the perfect time for this. It is the moment when the West must decide once and for all what the fight against Putin – and with it, the defense of freedom – is really worth.
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