Daniel Elkins
Western Media had been brimming with enjoyment over others' misfortunes, as we watched The Wagner Group and Russian media clash.
The speculation of a coup, a collapsed Russian war effort, or general Russian disorder was quashed as quickly as it started.
While dissatisfying to many, media commentators have been quick to find a silver lining; the evil Wagner Group and their Bond-villain leader, Prigozhin, are in exile, and Putin is weaker for it.
This is a dangerous misunderstanding of Russian political theater and it's amisreading of the conclusion to very recent events.
The Wagner Group’s relocation to Belarus is comparable to NATO’s expansion into the Baltic Region. Using Minsk as a proxy, Moscow effectively has pushed Russia’s first line of military recourse closer to NATO pact or allied countries, with the potential to open new fronts on the borders of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania.
From a tactical perspective this also puts Wagner forces within striking distance of Kyiv and is reminiscent of the avenues of approach used in initial invasion of February 2022.
This is advantageous since it effectively bypasses the vast majority of Ukrainian defenses which are set up in eastern Ukraine.
The last week might have been an entertaining show for those living outside the borders of this war, but from the Ukrainian perspective, they will now have to anticipate a second line of defense to protect their capital from a new and formidable force in the north.
An effective strike from Belarus could cut supply lines from Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Moldova, thereby starving the Ukrainian war effort of its much-needed supplies.
Politically, Putin may appear weak after the weekend’s "rebellion."
However, his public addresses on the matter have been carefully worded and it is safe to assume Putin, Wagner CEO Prigozhin, and Belarusian President Lukashenko remain allied. Given the above, Russia’s strategic military position is exponentially better placed thanks to this unconventional military buildup in Belarus.
Putin can now strike Ukraine conventionally and without warning through both Wagner and nuclear forces placed in Belarus.
And what can be said of Ukraine, goes equally for NATO Allies on Belarus’s border.
Russian grey zone activities in the north of Ukraine and in the Baltics have been ongoing for years.
The Wagner Group’s introduction to this front brings the potential for kinetic action while maintaining a layer of deniability for the Kremlin since the West has now conveniently created a narrative gap between The Wagner Group and the Russian military.
This makes any article 5 response to Wagner actions more difficult or at least more confusing as compared to actions by the Russian military itself.
To replicate a Donbas scenario in the Baltics, Russia needs a non-attributable force staging out of Belarus.
The Wagner Group now sits along Belarus’s 775-mile border with NATO, and within 24 miles of Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius.
If a messy situation arises between NATO border guards and Belarusian militants, later revealed as Wagner troops, Putin will say Prigozhin and his troops are "mutinous exiles" with no affiliation to the Russian state or its interests.
And just as we saw over the past week, many in the West will eagerly fall for it.
The danger of grey zone warfare is that once it has begun, it is very difficult to stop, particularly through military force. NATO is designed to tackle external threats.
If a NATO ally is destabilized internally through Wagner troops posing as militant groups of Russian minorities within the Baltics, both the NATO ally and the wider alliance are caught in a trap of our own making, wondering "why are Russian exiles acting in the Kremlin’s interest?"
While we scratch our heads, Russia will have moved on an alliance member.
Now that the dust has settled around the "coup," we can see the status quo remains effectively unchanged except for some shake ups at the Russian Ministry of Defense and, now, Wagner forces are deployed to Belarus.
If a magician wants to magically transport an object from point A to B, he begins by distracting you.
To that end, Wagner’s actions appear more as a series of staged events designed to set Ukraine’s ongoing offensive on the backfoot by threatening to seize Kyiv or cut off Western supplies.
Some might be skeptical of such a grand act of deceit and suggest that this author might be the one buying into Russian narratives rather than the other way around.
However, if one is to watch how the pieces on the strategic board have shifted since last Thursday, Russian forces are now clearly in a much stronger position.
These events were also conveniently timed with the long-planned withdrawal of Wagner forces from the front, as well as the upcoming NATO summit.
It would be wiser than not to assume this was theater designed to achieve what we now see before our eyes.
The views expressed in the preceding column do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Defense, or of the United States Government.
Daniel Elkins, is founder and president of the Special Operations Association of America.
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