China simulates ‘Z-day’ total sea war with the US

GABRIEL HONRADA

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China has just simulated a total war scenario at sea with the United States, an exercise that highlighted the People’s Liberation Army-Navy’s formidable challenges in a potential high-intensity conflict with an advanced, determined and highly-capable adversary.

South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that researchers from the PLA’s Unit 91404 recently added a “total war” scenario when testing and evaluating the performance of new weapons. Unit 91404 is responsible for the sea tests of some of China’s latest and most potent naval weapons.

The SCMP report notes that the researchers published their “Z-day” total war scenario in the peer-reviewed Chinese Journal of Ship Research last month. The report mentions that the researchers assumed that the Chinese military was under all-out attack by a hypothetical “blue alliance” with Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

In the simulation, the PLA-N had nearly 50 destroyers, with each attacked with 11 missiles and more than three torpedoes coming from multiple directions.

The report also mentions the blue alliance generated jamming noises 30 times stronger than the signal PLA-N warships use for communication and that the detection range of Chinese radar was reduced to 60% below normal.

Those conditions destroyed almost a third of the Chinese destroyer’s air defense capabilities, with only half of their surface-to-air (SAM) missiles hitting their targets. Chinese naval experts who independently assessed the simulation results were quoted as saying the figures are “realistic.”

By highlighting weapon capabilities in doomsday scenarios, military forces can showcase readiness and deter potential adversaries from engaging in conflicts, researchers in the SCMP report said, with one saying that their paper is not intended to be viewed as a “horror movie.”A Chinese Type 055 cruiser firing a YJ-18 supersonic anti-ship missile. Photo: Sina News

The Unit 91404 simulation follows on another conducted by a Chinese university wherein China had the upper hand over the US in a starkly different outcome.

In May 2023, Asia Times reported that researchers from the North University of China ran a war game simulating a Chinese hypersonic missile attack on a US carrier battlegroup, marking the first publicized simulation of its type.

The war game reportedly simulated a situation where the USS Gerald Ford supercarrier and its escorts continued approaching a China-held island in the South China Sea despite repeated warnings to turn back.

In that simulation, China used 24 hypersonic missiles in a three-wave attack to sink the USS Gerald Ford, the USS San Jacinto Ticonderoga-class cruiser, and four Arleigh Burke Flight IIA guided missile destroyers.

The first missile wave depleted the US fleet’s 264 interceptor missiles and sank the USS San Jacinto, while the second wave sank the USS Gerald Ford. The last wave finished off the surviving Arleigh Burke destroyers.

The North University of China simulation highlighted the importance of sea-based surveillance, patrol missions and lure tactics to identify targets, conserve limited missiles and reduce the number of interceptor missiles.

The US has also conducted simulations of a Taiwan Strait war with China, which unsurprisingly ended in its favor while projecting the potentially enormous costs of such a conflict.

In January 2023, Asia Times reported that Washington DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank had conducted a simulation of the US and its allies repelling a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, showing that while the US could potentially repel China a victory would come at a staggering cost.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, the US and Japan combined lost 449 combat aircraft and 43 ships, including two aircraft carriers, with the US losing 6,960 personnel and 3,200 killed in action. Taiwan lost half its air force, 22 ships, and 3,500 ground troops, with a third killed in action in the simulation.

China fared the worst in the simulation, losing 138 ships, 155 combat aircraft and 52,000 ground troops. China’s ground troop losses included 7,000 battle casualties with a third killed in action, 15,000 troops lost at sea with half assumed killed and 30,000 prisoners of war from Taiwan-landing force survivors.

The simulation mentions four critical assumptions for a US victory in Taiwan. First, as China’s logistics weaken, Taiwan must hold the line to contain China’s beachhead and counterattack in force.

Second, the US and its allies must accept that there is no “Ukraine model” for Taiwan since China can blockade the self-governing island for weeks or months to prevent resupply.

Third, the US must be able to use its bases in Japan, which would be the critical linchpin for US operations around Taiwan. Fourth, the US must be able to strike China’s warships from outside its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) bubble.

Emerging technologies would likely play a decisive role in defending Taiwan, although they may not be enough to avert a Pyrrhic outcome for either side.

In May 2022, Asia Times reported that the US Air Force’s Warfighting Integration Capability (AFWIC) office and RAND think tank conducted a Taiwan conflict simulation that demonstrated the decisive effect drone swarms would have in such a contingency.Artist’s concept of a drone swarm. Credit: C4ISRNET

Using a line-of-sight laser “mesh” network to transmit and receive data, drone swarms deployed in the simulation were effectively autonomous, sharing flight and targeting data instantaneously and constantly between individual drones.

Drone swarms could form a decoy screen for manned US aircraft such as the F-22 and F-35, extending the latter’s onboard sensor range and enabling them to observe electronic silence.

They could also significantly increase the situational awareness and target acquisition capabilities of manned platforms while flooding enemy radar scopes with multiple targets, forcing the enemy to waste limited missiles and ammunition while manned platforms later move in for the kill.

Technologies such as machine learning and artificial intelligence would allow drone swarms to look at targets from multiple angles, cross-check various targeting data streams and suggest the best way to attack a target.

While revolutionary from a war-fighting perspective, drone swarms may not be enough to prevent a Pyrrhic outcome for the US and its allies in a potential Taiwan Strait conflict with China.