China a growing port of call for African naval expansion

Source Link

Sub-Saharan naval forces have been undergoing dramatic and dynamic changes, driven by economic developments and growing maritime security concerns. The Military Balance and Military Balance+ data show that China is playing an increased role in transforming what have largely been modest naval forces. The data also underscores some of the continuing challenges in developing African naval capabilities.

Numbers game Concerns about piracy and other threats to the maritime economy and shipping in and around the African littoral have received greater international attention in recent years. These concerns have driven United States activity – chiefly through the naval component of US Africa Command – and an increasingly coordinated and persistent European maritime presence. In both cases, efforts have included a focus on local training and capacity-building. These concerns have also been among the main drivers behind regional force developments.

According to The Military Balance and the Military Balance+ database, the total number of active Sub-Saharan surface combatants has almost tripled since 2008. The region now sports 420 such vessels, up from 158 in 2008.

The preponderance of the additions is to patrol and coastal combatants, in a move by respective states to secure their littoral waters. Their procurement choices have been dictated chiefly by their limited budgets – larger combatants can be significantly more expensive to buy and operate. But operational priorities – focusing on offshore, coastal and riverine security and patrolling – have also played a part.

Although 18 of 30 regional states with navies and/or coastguards saw their fleet sizes increase by 50% or more, the growth in aggregate Sub-Saharan vessel numbers was driven primarily by a few countries. Nigeria’s surface combatant number rose from 12 to 128, in large part to combat maritime security threats in the Gulf of Guinea. Angola’s fleet grew 650% over the period and Mozambique, which had no surface combatants in 2008, now has 30.

This regional fleet growth needs to be kept in perspective, however. Of all the regional flotillas, only two operate principal surface combatants. South Africa has a fleet of four frigates and Equatorial Guinea operates one. Nigeria recently signed a contract to refurbish its single frigate, which has been laid up for more than five years. Moreover, South Africa is the region’s sole operator of a small submarine force, with two operational boats. Meanwhile, some of the region’s navies have shrunk. The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gambia saw their vessel numbers decline, while South Africa’s fleet size is down 22% since 2008.

The China factor One of the biggest beneficiaries of the demand has been China. The country has seen its market share – in terms of number of vessels supplied – rise from 9% in 2008 to 16% in 2023. It is now the second-largest supplier, up from fourth, with Singapore, perhaps surprisingly, the largest in numerical terms thanks in considerable part to multiple patrol-boat acquisitions by Nigeria.

Among larger naval vessels (those above 250 tonnes full-load displacement) in regional inventories in 2023, 30% were of Chinese origin, up from 5% in 2008. The percentage rises to 50% if only vessels acquired since 2008 are considered. This undoubtedly reflects Beijing’s increasing interest and stake in the region and the development of China’s naval shipbuilding industrial base, as well as the evolving economic and strategic outlook of Sub-Saharan Africa itself.

Regional countries have looked further afield to satisfy their demand as the Sub-Saharan defence industry is characterised by perhaps the weakest regional shipbuilding sector. South Africa, with its Damen and Sandock-Austral shipyards, is by far the largest hub. Only two other states in the region – Eritrea and Nigeria – have built complete warships in recent years, while only 5% of current inventories across all Sub-Saharan Africa were built locally.

Minding the gap The fleet additions have driven a considerable reduction in the average age of vessels in service, from 20.3 years in 2008 to 16.9 years in 2023. That also reflects a change in regional procurement practices, with a shift towards buying newly built vessels as opposed to second-hand purchases or transfers. Notably, Angola’s navy has taken delivery from France of the first of three innovative Ocean Eagle 43 patrol trimarans. Conversely, between them Nigeria and Ghana still operate six Second World War-era, ex-US Coast Guard (USCG) seagoing tenders as oceangoing patrol boats, the oldest of which, NNS Ologbo, was first commissioned into USCG service in October 1942.

One of the challenges for the region’s navies continues to be their mixed record of maintaining vessels in service whilst remaining operationally effective. Individual fleets are often small, fragmented and dominated by minor war vessels. The enduring and indeed evolving threats to maritime security in the region, which include organised criminal activity and growing worries about threats to the maritime environment, will likely see a continuing demand for further fleet upgrades.