Mackenzie Eaglen
For years, Pentagon leaders have described China as a “near-peer” competitor—not quite up to snuff when it comes to matching American hard power. The phrase carries an implication a state may possess similar capabilities and capacity to the United States, but never enough to be considered on equal footing.
No more.
China’s continuous and rapid transformation of its military and strategic capabilities means Washington can safely retire “near-peer” as an accurate classifier.
The 2017 National Security Strategy made waves when it declared the dawn of “great power competition” between the United States and assertive powers such as China and Russia. The strategy was quick to cite areas in which the United States had fallen behind and China had developed asymmetric advantages.
Subsequent strategy documents written by the Biden administration have contained similar monikers. The 2022 National Defense Strategy declared China the “most consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades,” and has highlighted strategic competition with China as a serious challenge for the US military for the foreseeable future.
When speaking on the Pentagon’s 2022 report China military power report here at AEI, Michael Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, seconded this, emphasizing that China was the “pacing challenge” for the Pentagon in nearly all domains.
So which is it – great power competition, strategic competitor, or pacing challenge? One could endlessly argue over the semantics, but one thing is certain: China’s rapid and substantial investment in the modernization and expansion of its armed forces have are changing the military calculus in the Indo-Pacific.
This shift comes on the heels of a decade where the United States has been focused on other theaters and threats, and long delayed crucial modernization programs to maintain our military’s (rapidly shrinking) edge. The Pentagon has affirmed as much, writing in the 2020 China Military Power Report that “China has already achieved parity with—or even exceeded—the United States in several military modernization areas.”
Take for example China’s rapid development of land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles. After years of development, China now possesses “largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the world,” with stocks that dwarf the United States in both size and capability. This doesn’t even account for China’s newer hypersonic weaponry, which is designed to strike US bases and fleets across the Western Pacific. As China deploys more weaponry, the United States’ premier attempt at deploying a hypersonic missile, the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), has fallen behind as the program has faced delays and uncertainty.
Other strategic factors are also contributing to a shifting calculus. While China’s navy (PLAN), coast guard (CCG), and maritime militia (PAFMM) all continue to grow, under the President’s budget request for fiscal year 2024, our fleet will actually shrink by one ship as retirements outpace new construction. China has also sought to greatly expand its nuclear, cyber, and space capabilities in an effort to achieve parity with the United States.
While no other country is able to yet match America’s global power projection capability, China is working hard and fast on it. However, this widespread recognition of “strategic competition” over “near-peer” is emblematic of a shifting power calculations. Already, within the regions where conflict would most likely breakout, such as the South China Sea or the Taiwan Straits, China is chipping away at American advantages.
More effectively competing and deterring China’s Communist Party regime requires relentless focus to build up credible combat power. Mending gaps and maintaining any shrinking advantage in sectors such as shipbuilding, the organic and commercial defense and aerospace industrial bases, or cutting-edge technology means the Pentagon has no time to spare nor ability to take its foot off the gas. Shrinking forces will not be able to change the minds of leaders intent on upending the status quo. As our military superiority continues to decline, leaders must be more clear-eyed and honest that we have met our peer and it is China.
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