In Deterring China, Dialogue Is No Substitute for Budgets, Hard Power

Brent Sadler

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KEY TAKEAWAYS

This is not to say China is itching for a fight, but it is trying to test its potential wartime foe in a controlled way.

President Biden continues to focus on advancing his progressive domestic agenda, while trying to deter China on the cheap with words and not a defense budget.

Shrinking defense budgets while doggedly pursuing dialogue at any cost signals weakness. Beijing can only interpret that as a green light to push harder.

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At last week’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin proudly announced that the “fiscal year 2024 budget request includes the largest procurement request in the history of the Department of Defense.”

There are two problems with this statement: It’s not true when you adjust the numbers for inflation, and it doesn’t match what is needed to counter today’s threats.

Mr. Austin’s Singapore trip was bookended by a dangerous Chinese air intercept and a purposeful near-collision with a U.S. warship.

Clearly, China’s leadership is taking such risky, provocative actions to test U.S. resolve. Yet thus far, leaders such as Mr. Austin and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seem resolved only to continue chasing after “no conditions” talks with Beijing to cool tensions.

But while Washington calls for dialogue, China lets the phone ring, unanswered, and acts. This is not to say China is itching for a fight, but it is trying to test its potential wartime foe in a controlled way.

The Naval War College’s Ryan Martinson argued that today’s provocations and future ones should be viewed as part of a Chinese approach called “training from contact with the enemy.” How the U.S. responds to such tests could either delay or accelerate a future military showdown with China.

In the days following Mr. Austin’s trip to Singapore, China and Russia conducted a combined strategic bomber patrol in the Sea of Japan. Separately, a fleet of Chinese maritime militia, coast guard cutters, and a survey vessel left Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone after weeks of operations there.

Washington by now should get the message: Don’t hold your breath waiting for a security dialogue with the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA.

Beijing has made it explicit that bilateral dialogue is not going to happen until the U.S. “earnestly respects China’s sovereignty and security.” And as Gen. Li Shangfu, China’s defense minister, made clear at the Shangri-La Dialogue, China is prepared to use force should its expansive territorial claims not be respected.

Sadly, President Biden continues to focus on advancing his progressive domestic agenda, while trying to deter China on the cheap with words and not a defense budget to match the threat.

The administration’s 2024 budget proposed spending increases of more than 10% for domestic programs, while pegging Pentagon spending at a level that would reduce its purchasing power by about $9 billion.

China, on the other hand, plans to boost its defense spending by 7.2%, adjusted for inflation. It will expand its navy to over 400 warships by 2025. To counter this, today’s U.S. Navy has 297 warships, which it has not been able to keep in fighting trim due to decades of inadequate resourcing.

Don’t be surprised if Beijing does something big this summer.

After April’s major military operations around Taiwan, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the Southern Theater Command, where major joint exercises are typically run in the summer. This could indicate planning for a larger and more aggressive drill soon. Mr. Xi has ordered his military, the PLA, to “strengthen military training oriented toward actual combat.”

In addition, Taiwan’s presidential elections are fast approaching. Beijing watches these closely, wary of the emergence of any independence-minded candidate. The current polling in Taiwan certainly isn’t easing Beijing’s concerns. The leading candidates lean toward independence or to an indefinite continuation of the status quo—a situation that Beijing says it cannot countenance.

Events of the past week make clear that U.S. and Chinese leaders are talking past each other. To break this cycle, U.S. leaders need to exercise more levers of national power to get Beijing’s attention—fast.

In such an atmosphere, shrinking defense budgets while doggedly pursuing dialogue at any cost signals weakness. Beijing can only interpret that as a green light to push harder against the U.S.

This piece originally appeared in The Washington Times