Europe Follows Macron’s Lead on China

SCOTT HOWARD

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As conflict rages in Ukraine and tensions in the Indo-Pacific region rise, the conversation regarding Europe’s involvement in a potential U.S.–China conflict has grown more public. The actions and comments of European leaders such as French president Emmanuel Macron in recent months have hinted towards an attitude of indifference about whether Europe would back the U.S. and Taiwan in a conflict with China. A recent poll seems to confirm that theory.

According to a recent survey conducted by the European Council of Foreign Relations, a clear majority of Europeans (62 percent on average) polled in eleven countries answered that, in a potential conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, they would want their country to remain neutral. Of the eleven countries from which respondents were selected, only one (Sweden, at 49 percent) fell short of an outright majority for neutrality. As Lauren Chadwick of Euronews wrote:

It shows that the European public’s view of China is more in line with French President Emmanuel Macron than European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the report’s co-authors argued in a policy brief.

It is not surprising that Macron and France have taken this approach. As Andrew Struttaford reflected in a recent issue of National Review magazine, France has a long history of bucking American preferences and charting its own path. It is also true, as Andrew wrote, that Macron’s position has not gone unchallenged within the EU itself. If this poll is reflective of reality, however, most Europeans lean toward France here, not against it. The weight of reality in eastern Europe has ginned up support for the Ukrainian cause, but the U.S. cannot assume support for any cause of ours in the Indo-Pacific.

Our moral and geopolitical obligations require us to (rightfully) support Europe and Ukraine today, but if Europe is not committed to the current set of arrangements, it may be worth reconsidering them tomorrow. Any future conflict with China will require undivided U.S. attention, and we cannot afford to lean on unreliable allies. The Europeans, with leaders like Macron and their desire for autonomy from the U.S., may be such allies. If their minds cannot be changed, the U.S. might have to put its faith elsewhere.