Forget jets – Ukraine needs tanks, artillery and drones for its counter-offensive against Russia, experts say

David Parsley

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President Volodymyr Zelensky

does not require fighter jets to mount a successful counter-offensive in south-east Ukraine this summer as long as he does not attempt to wrest back control of Russian-occupied Crimea, security and military experts have told i.

As the long-awaited offensive draws closer, experts are agreed that Kyiv has until the beginning of November to break Russian forces in the Donbas region before another winter sets in.

Former British Army general Lord Dannatt, who was chief of the general staff until 2009, told i that jets were not the key to Ukraine’s counter-offensive.

“It’s about tanks, artillery and drones,” he said. “The jets will come later.”

In the past week the UK has confirmed it is providing Ukraine with anti-aircraft defence systems armed with hundreds of missiles, long range drone bombs, as well as long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

During President Zelensky’s visit to Chequers on Monday, Rishi Sunak also committed the UK to training Ukrainian pilots, but there remains no sign that Kyiv is going to receive the US F-16 fighter jets that it has requested since the outset of the war in the near future.

One defence source told i that the UK had completed its latest round of military support for Ukraine and Mr Sunak would be urging other allies to bolster Ukrainian supplies in the coming days.

The UK is the first nation known to have supplied Ukraine with long-range weapons, such as the Storm Shadow cruise missiles (Photo: Getty)

Dr Joshua Andresen, an associate professor of national security at the University of Surrey, believes the West is also looking for how Ukraine combines its new weaponry and troop training before supplying further arms to President Zelensky’s forces.

“Ukraine has just a few months to show its counter-offensive has been successful, and success will be taking a corridor in the east to split the Russian forces and disrupt their supply lines at least,” said Dr Andresen, who was also an adviser to the US State Department during the Barack Obama and Donald Trump administrations.

Dr Andresen added that Ukraine requires five key elements before it is likely to launch its full counter-offensive.

“It already has the well-trained and well-motivated troops, but is also requires enough ammunition like 155mm shells, the armoured personnel carriers to protect troops operating in the offensive, anti-aircraft systems to protect both civilians and its weapon supplies, and, of course, the logistics, parts and repairs capability for all the kit.”

It is understood that Ukraine has been stockpiling weapon systems and parts for months as Western nations have donated military aid in a piecemeal fashion.

As well as the Storm Shadow missiles from the UK, Ukraine has also taken delivery of a number of mission critical systems from Western allies in recent weeks.

While Kyiv has not been promised any F-16 jets, it has been given more than 20 Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets by Slovakia and Poland. Several of these are believed to have been successfully adapted to launch the Strom Shadow deep into Russia occupied territory in both the south-east and Crimea.

Ed Arnold, a research fellow in European security at the Royal United Services Institute, added that Ukrainian forces had already proved adept as making the best of what weapons it has.

“They didn’t have jets last year and they performed two consecutive counter-offensives, one in Kharkiv and one in Kherson, so they’ve shown there’s far more to fighting than just kits and capabilities.

“Ukrainian forces are essentially having to just mix and match what kit they have. They have shown they’re actually quite good at that.

“You also have to consider what the Russian troops will do when faced with Ukraine’s full assault. They’ve already shown signs pulling out or deserting their posts around Bakhmut, and they are clearly not as motivated as the Ukrainians.”

Dr Arnold added: “Ukraine’s ambitions should probably stop short of taking Crimea. If it does want to take Crimea, then that could wait until next spring when the F-16s may have arrived.”

The US has also delivered the Patriot air-defence system, which was put to use this week during what Kyiv called “an exceptional” attack by the Kremlin on the capital.Ukraine has received around 100 modern tanks so far, including Germany’s Leopard 2 (Photo: Denis Balibouse/Reuters)

Ukrainian officials claimed that all 18 missiles aimed at Kyiv on Monday night were shot down, including six of Russia’s sophisticated hypersonic missiles. However, Russian claimed it had destroyed a Patriot system in Kyiv.

The US and EU has also supplied more than 50,000 155mm canon shells for the offensive, with the promise of a further million shells coming from European allies this year. It is also believed Ukrainian forces have taken delivery of around hundred modern tanks – including the UK’s Challenger 2 and Germany’s Leopard – while around a further 150 Leopard and US M1 Abrams have been pledged.

Italy and France are also thought to have begun delivery of their jointly manufactured SAMP/T air-defence systems to Ukraine.

The United States has sent two air-defence systems known as Nasams to Ukraine, with two more having been delivered from Canada and Norway. Germany has also delivered at least two of four IRIS-T missile systems.

While leaked Pentagon papers claimed weapon deliveries still fall short of what military planners have assessed that Ukraine needs to make the most of an offensive, US and Western officials have been keen to point out that many more supplies have arrived since those papers were written at least two months ago.

US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, said that he believed Ukraine had enough supplies to begin its offensive, telling reporters that the West had met its “initial goals to provide what’s required to get started”.