For decades Russia pumped arms to China. On average it sent $2bn-worth every year between 2001 and 2010, with a bonanza $7bn deal in 2015. Now the tables have turned. Russia has lost over 9,400 pieces of equipment, including more than 1,500 tanks, during its botched invasion of Ukraine. It is desperately short of ammunition. America says it has intelligence suggesting that China is considering whether to supply Russia with weapons. That could change the course of the war. It would also trigger a deeper crisis in China’s relationship with America and Europe.
Russia has repeatedly asked China for arms since the early months of the war. China has repeatedly demurred, sending only non-lethal aid, such as helmets, and dual-use items, such as aircraft parts. American officials have not publicly disclosed details of what they think China is mulling. But on February 23rd Der Spiegel, a German magazine, claimed that Russia’s armed forces were negotiating with Xi’an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology, a Chinese firm, to buy 100 attack drones. Russia has used such drones both on the front lines and, since October, as part of regular strikes on Ukraine’s power grid.
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