Although the populist wave that once seemed like an existential threat to the union has since subsided, vestiges of it remain. Illiberal governments hold power in Hungary and Poland, and a far-right candidate once again reached the second round of France’s presidential election last year. And Italy’s elections in September resulted in its first far-right government since the fascist dictatorship of Benito Mussolini.
The coronavirus pandemic further highlighted the EU’s difficulties in providing effective collective responses to a crisis that, at least initially, saw each member state looking out for itself. Since then, however, the EU’s collective vaccine procurement program proved to be a success, and the bloc took a huge step toward enhanced integration in July 2020, when it agreed to a historic deal that included a collective debt mechanism to help finance pandemic relief funds.
Even as leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have fended off challenges from right-wing opposition parties at home, they have also sought to position Europe as an independent pole in an increasingly multipolar world. To achieve that goal, however, the EU will have to overcome its internal divisions and bat down external threats to articulate a coherent collective foreign and security policy backed by a credible military deterrent.
Those external threats are myriad. Most prominent among them now is Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose persistent attempts to destabilize the European order culminated in the invasion of Ukraine. But rather than divide the West, as Putin perhaps expected, the war has revitalized trans-Atlantic ties and given the NATO alliance newfound relevance and urgency. And the EU response to Putin’s aggression has been robust, particularly with regard to economic sanctions. For now, the degree of unity and cohesion displayed by the EU has surprised many observers, but with the war in Ukraine dragging on, there is no guarantee it will endure.
Putin isn’t the only concern occupying European policymakers. U.S. President Joe Biden has demonstrated a more conventional approach to trans-Atlantic ties than his predecessor, Donald Trump, exemplified by Biden’s leadership in the ongoing crisis over Ukraine. But numerous tensions within the partnership—over trade relations and burden-sharing on defense, for instance—preceded the current moment of solidarity over the standoff with Russia, and those tensions, as well as new ones, will no doubt resurface over time.
The EU must also navigate a relationship with China that is becoming increasingly complex, combining areas of cooperation with elements of strategic rivalry and confrontation, even as Brussels seeks to stake out an independent position amid the strategic competition between Washington and Beijing. And all the while, Brussels must address recurring tensions with states on the EU’s periphery, like Turkey and Belarus.
WPR has covered Europe in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next. What are the long-term political and security implications of the war in Ukraine for Europe? Will the EU establish itself as an independent global strategic actor, given its security dependence on the U.S.? And how will the EU navigate its relations with an increasingly assertive China? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.
Our Most Recent Coverage
At a recent conference of the U.K.’s self-described National Conservatives, senior Tory MPs and a Cabinet minister espoused views that align with those of European far-right parties. It’s an indication of how strong these factions, which just a decade ago remained at the outer fringes of the Conservative Party, have now become.
Elections and Domestic Politics
Overshadowed by the rise of the far right has been the growing support for various national Green parties, driven by both the mounting pressure to address climate change and the absence of any other viable political home for left-leaning voters. Meanwhile, even as the center has held against the threat from the political extremes in many recent elections across Europe, compromise might be increasingly hard to come by in the face of political polarization. That could prove especially costly when it comes to addressing challenges like rising inflation due to lingering fallout from the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.How Spain’s government bungled a law meant to strengthen protections for victims of sexual violence, in Spain’s Sexual Consent Law Debacle Has Sanchez’s Coalition on the Ropes
Why Greece could be in for a string of indecisive elections, in Greece’s Elections Could Usher in a Period of Political Uncertainty
What an upstart farmers’ party in the Netherlands means for the domestic politics of climate change, in The Netherlands’ Farmers Party Is a Wake-Up Call for Europe
How a recent criminal case against a pro-choice activist returned abortion rights to the center of Poland’s political debates, in In Poland, Abortion and Women’s Rights Are Back In the Spotlight
The European Union
The EU managed to survive the populist wave by turning to its historical crisis-response strategy: muddling through. But efforts to reform the EU have stalled, leaving it vulnerable in the face of future crises—and to the changing global geopolitical landscape. The coronavirus pandemic initially seemed to be a perfect storm combining both challenges, but instead it opened a window of opportunity for enhanced integration, particularly when it comes to fiscal policy and collective debt, as well as addressing regional and global security challenges. So far the EU has also effectively responded to the war in Ukraine, but it, too, presents long-term challenges that won’t be easy to overcome.Why Romania’s reluctance to be proactive in policy debates within EU and NATO institutions has now become problematic., in Romania Is Punching Below Its Weight in the EU and NATO
Why an EU anti-graft initiative is raising hackles among member states, in The EU Pushes for a Common Playbook to Tackle Corruption
Why the implosion of the EU’s effort to assist Sudan’s transition to democracy raises tough questions for Brussels, in The EU Has Been Sleepwalking Through Sudan’s Crisis
What elections in Turkey and Greece mean for the EU, in Europe Has a Lot Riding on Turkey’s—and Greece’s—Elections
Europe-China Relations
The EU has been struggling to strike a balance in its relationship with China. Ahead of the pandemic, the newly installed European Commission had taken a harder line toward Beijing, particularly over unfair trade practices. But China also represents economic opportunity to many of Europe’s leaders, leaving the bloc divided over how to balance China’s value as an economic partner and its risk as a strategic rival.What the latest “wolf warrior” incident revealed about Europe’s leverage when it comes to ties with China, in A United Europe Can Stand Up to China
Why another “wolf warrior” gaffe could have lasting consequences for China’s ties with Eastern Europe, in Another ‘Wolf Warrior’ Controversy Strains China’s Ties With Europe
What the recent controversial remarks by France’s president reveal about Europe’s approach to ties with China, in Macron Put the Spotlight on Europe’s Disjointed China Policy
How France’s president muddied the waters on Europe’s China strategy, in Macron’s Confusing Vision for France and Europe’s Relations With China
Europe-U.S. Relations
During his four years in office, Trump infuriated America’s long-standing European allies, lobbing trade threats and backing out of hard-won international agreements. At the same time, he cozied up to some of the continent’s more illiberal regimes, particularly Poland and Hungary. The arrival of the Biden administration improved the tone of the relationship, even as divergences on key policy and strategic issues continued to arise. For now, any tensions are on hold due to the need for cohesion over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they haven’t necessarily gone away.Why the U.S.-China rivalry makes Washington’s ties with Europe more important than ever, in The U.S. Still Needs Europe to Compete With China
Why Washington’s leadership of the Western response to the war in Ukraine might be too successful for its own good, in U.S. Leadership on Ukraine Is Increasing European Dependence
Why Washington’s increasingly protectionist trade policy could undermine its alliances, including in Europe, in A Protectionist America Won’t Be a Global America
What’s ahead for the EU’s standoff with Washington over the industrial subsidies included in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, in The EU Is Taking the Gloves Off in Its Trade Dispute With the U.S.
Democracy and Rule of Law
Democratic norms have been under attack throughout Europe for the past decade, with leaders like Hungary’s Victor Orban and Poland’s Andrzej Duda chipping away at the rule of law in their countries. The EU has armed itself with new mechanisms to increase its leverage over recalcitrant member states that don’t respect its democratic norms. But with Orban having recently won a landslide reelection victory, Brussels’ problem isn’t going away anytime soon, and he just gained an ally in Rome with the election of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the head of a far-right coalition government. At the same time, unprecedented popular movements have arisen to counter these threats to democracy, and recent elections in France, Slovenia and most recently the Czech Repuclic demonstrate that the appeal of right-wing populists could be on the wane elsewhere in Europe.How randomly selected panels of citizens are reinventing democracy in Europe and beyond, in Citizens’ Assemblies Could Be Democracy’s Best Hope
How Hungary and Poland helped write the playbook for political capture of the judiciary, in When Is Judicial Reform Anti-Democratic?
Why the EU is losing its nerve over applying rule-of-law penalties against Hungary, in In Its Rule-of-Law Standoff With Hungary, the EU Just Blinked
How Brussels looked the other way on Greece’s illegal migrant “pushback” policy—and Athens’ crackdown on the press covering it, in Greece’s Press Is the Latest Casualty of Mitsotakis’ War on Migrants
Trade and Economy
In the face of Trump’s hostility to free trade, the EU redoubled its efforts to seek out new partners in defense of the liberal trade order. Meanwhile, with Brexit now official, the EU must navigate the political and economic fallout of its permanent trade deal with the U.K., which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2021. The economic impact of the war in Ukraine is also already being felt across the bloc, in the form of rising energy costs and food prices.Why the EU and London may have finally closed the book on Brexit, in Did Sunak’s Northern Ireland Protocol Deal Finally ‘Get Brexit Done’?
How Brexit is weighing down the British economy, in As the EU Economy Picks Up, Brexit Clouds the U.K.’s Forecast
Why Russia presents a new and unique test case for Western sanctions, in Sanctions on Russia Are a Long Game, Not a Quick Fix
Why the U.S. and European sanctions against Russia won’t affect the outcome of the war in Ukraine, in The West’s Sanctions Against Russia Aren’t Working
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