For years, Central America has contended with the violence and corruption stemming from organized crime and the drug trade. More recently, the countries of the region also found themselves at the center of U.S. domestic politics, due to the many desperate Central Americans who make their way across Mexico to seek asylum at the United States’ southern border.
The steady stream of outward migration is driven by ongoing turmoil, particularly in Nicaragua and the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The three Northern Triangle countries rank among the most violent in the world, a legacy of the civil wars in El Salvador and Guatemala, which destabilized security structures and flooded the region with guns. In that context, gangs—often brought back home by deportees from the U.S.—have proliferated, and along with them the drug trade and corruption, fueling increasing lawlessness. Popular unrest has done little to produce political solutions, leading many of the most vulnerable to flee.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump instrumentalized migration for domestic political purposes, while also using threatened cuts in U.S. development aid to pressure governments in the region to do more to hamper the outflow and to take in migrants returned from the U.S. border. But his administration did little to help regional governments address the root causes of the crisis—graft and violence. His successor, President Joe Biden, pledged to return to a more conventional approach of using development aid and high-level support for anti-corruption efforts to address the region’s political, economic and security deficits. But in practice, his approach to the crisis on the southern U.S. border since taking office has represented more continuity than change. Clearly, the issue will remain no less of a challenge for his administration, even as the migration flows have begun to shift.
In places where it seemed that popular movements and a new generation of leaders might make a difference, like Guatemala and El Salvador, entrenched interests have done their best to maintain the status quo, much as they have in the face of reformist efforts in other countries in the region. Since taking office, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele has raised fears of a return to authoritarianism by concentrating power in his own hands and politicizing the military. And his ongoing crackdown on the country’s violent gangs is causing human rights abuses that have raised echoes of the country’s civil war.
WPR has covered the Central America crisis in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next there. Will popular anti-corruption movements survive the backlash against them by the region’s entrenched political interests? What effect will the long-term impact of the coronavirus pandemic have on the factors driving outmigration? How effective will the Biden administration’s approach to the region be? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.
While the exodus of millions of Venezuelans from their homeland to countries across the Western Hemisphere has attracted considerable attention in recent years, another equally significant migratory pattern in Central America has been taking place with less notice: the roughly 200,000 Nicaraguans who have fled to Costa Rica.
Domestic Politics
A few years ago, the region seemed to be at a political crossroads, driven by citizens’ frustration with the seemingly perpetual corruption and violence. But entrenched elites in Guatemala and Honduras succeeded in dismantling independent commissions that had proven effective at uprooting corruption, while elsewhere, leaders promising reform have failed to deliver. Meanwhile, Bukele’s authoritarian slide has raised alarm over the health of El Salvador’s democracy.What’s driving the popular discontent ahead of Panama’s elections next year, in Panama’s Popular Discontent Is Still Simmering
What explains Guatemala’s democratic backsliding—and why it’s a problem for Biden, in Guatemala’s Authoritarian Slide Under Giammattei Is Putting Biden in a Bind
What the arrest of a prominent journalist means for Guatemala’s democracy, in Jose Ruben Zamora’s Arrest Puts Guatemala’s Democracy Deeper in Peril
Security and Drugs
Violence tied to gangs and drug trafficking overshadows the region, but particularly the Northern Triangle countries. Government attempts to clamp down on crime through strict militarized policies have largely failed, though Bukele’s draconian approach is now winning acolytes across the region. Meanwhile, global efforts to reduce drug trafficking through aid programs are undermined by the demand for narcotics from the United States and Europe.How Bukele has marketed himself as a model for the region, in Bukele’s ‘Cool Authoritarian’ Model Makes for a Dangerous Export
Why Latin American leaders are aping Bukele’s rhetoric and tactics, despite his autocratic ways, in Latin America Likes Bukele’s ‘War on Gangs.’ That’s a Problem
Why Bukele’s crackdown on gangs is reminiscent of abuses during El Salvador’s civil war, in Bukele’s ‘War on Gangs’ Is Reopening El Salvador’s Civil War Wounds
Nicaragua
Nicaragua was brought to the brink of a civil war in 2018 over proposed economic reforms. After shelving the measures in a concession to protesters, President Daniel Ortega went on to violently repress the opposition, causing international alarm. Now there is no exit strategy in sight from what has become Nicaragua’s “new normal” of repression, particularly following sham elections in 2021 that cemented Ortega’s grip on power.Why Ortega is increasingly worried about the Catholic Church’s influence, in In Nicaragua, Ortega’s Crackdown on the Catholic Church Takes a New Turn
Why the international community needs to think outside the traditional box of sanctions to find new ways to pressure Nicaragua’s government, in Further Sanctions May Only Enable Ortega’s Repression in Nicaragua
What’s behind Nicaragua’s recent aggressive response to international criticism of its human rights abuses, in Nicaragua’s Ortega Has a New Strategy to Counter His International Critics
Migrant Crisis and the Northern Triangle
In addition to rampant violence, the massive migration from the three Northern Triangle countries is driven by a lack of economic opportunities and the absence of rule of law. By setting increasingly difficult hurdles for Central Americans to enter the United States, though, Washington is increasing the pressure on regional governments—and on Mexican, which is currently grappling with the influx of migrants and refugees. Biden promised to reverse Trump’s border policies and focus on helping regional partners address the root causes of migration. But political hurdles—in the U.S. among Trump supporters and in the Northern Triangle among the region’s entrenched elites, respectively—have resulted in more continuity than change.Why seeking asylum at the U.S. southern border has gotten no less challenging due to a range of policy proposals put forth by the Biden administration, in Biden Is Rebranding Trump’s Border Policies, Not Dismantling Them
Why the U.S. approach to the southern border is outdated, in U.S. Border Policy Must Adapt to the Region’s New Migration Patterns
Why international law matters when it comes to changing minds about detaining asylum-seekers, in The U.S. Is Breaking the Law on the Southern Border
Trade
Trump used trade as an unlikely weapon in his battle to stop Central American migrants from heading to the United States. But Central American leaders are busy exploring other options. Several countries have cut ties recently with Taiwan, sending a clear signal to Beijing that they are keen to open negotiation channels.Why Taiwan’s approach to maintaining ties with the region’s smallest countries is self-defeating, in Taiwan Needs a New Approach in Latin America
Why Congress shouldn’t use preferential trade with Central America as an excuse to raise trade barriers with other developing countries, in U.S. Trade Policy Shouldn’t Pit Developing Countries Against Each Other
Why Trump considered kicking three Central American countries out of a long-standing trade agreement, in Trump’s Strangest Trade Idea Yet
Corruption
The region is plagued by corruption, often tied to the organized crime syndicates behind the drug trade. Persistent citizen protests and the airing of scandals seem to have little impact on systems that perpetuate graft. And in countries where anti-corruption campaigns scored major victories, like Guatemala and Honduras, the entrenched interests have fought back.What the extradition of Honduras’ former president to the U.S. means for accountability in the country, in Honduras’ Hernandez Will Face Justice, but His Narco-State Could Live On
Why winning might have been the easy part for Honduras’ new president, in Castro Will Have Her Hands Full Cleaning Up Honduras’ Mafia State
Why Biden’s “root causes” approach to tackling Central American migration will be an uphill climb in Guatemala, in Guatemala Has No Intention of Tackling Corruption
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