Shannon Welch
“It's a victory when the weapons fall silent, and people speak up,” Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview in 2019, long before the invasion in Ukraine, when tensions were rising along the Ukrainian borders over the ongoing Russian occupation of Crimea.[i] Only six months in office, Zelensky quickly learned the difficulties in keeping peace with its largest neighbour, Russia, who had been committing boundary violations and human rights abuses in different regions throughout the south of the country, preparing him for the conflict that would define his presidency.
The Russian invasion Ukraine has passed its one-year anniversary, solidifying it as the most violent land war since WWII. According to the latest UN human rights office (OHCHR) data, at least 8,000 non-combatants have been confirmed killed—with nearly 13,300 injured—since the Russian invasion began.[ii] In 2022, the United States spent US $50 billion on Ukraine; in 2023, the war is anticipated to cost the German economy US $170 billion, or 4% of Germany's GDP.[iii] Despite the assistance from NATO, the EU, and the United States, the war continues without a probable end, complicating the strategy for the next possible year of the war.
Despite the difficulties for the region, this past year was full of successes for Ukraine and NATO, from securing Kyiv to US President Joe Biden's successful visit to the capital despite the soundings of air raid sirens and a war-torn horizon. Ukraine’s military and militias have fought hard to regain stolen land and protect the economy by remaining open and relying on new forms of income stimulation. The Ukrainians have been creative and resilient, allowing NATO and the West to pull from their successes observable and repeatable strategies to combat the Russian military structure.
Three significant strategy realms have been considered the most effective for Ukraine: time, leadership, and technology. Having been strong on all three fronts, which are often overlooked in hybrid wartime strategy, Ukraine has maintained a competitive edge against Russia, despite having fewer troops and artillery in its fight against a more extensive, robust military apparatus. By focusing on these three strategies, NATO and the West can improve their current policy concerning Russia for present and future conflict.
The Time Strategy
Time has been a complex tactical strategy used on both sides of the war. What was once thought to be a short war, over within weeks or months, has been drawn out into a long, ongoing conflict, with concessions from both sides on land and air power. Unfortunately, NATO, the US, and Ukraine do not have the luxury of maintaining the ongoing conflict at the same level in which it is being fought for another year. Decisive action will be critical for the US and NATO on the funding and weapons assistance it provides Ukraine in the coming months. At the same time, concern for the war is still a priority in their policy-making sectors.
Ukraine has utilized its ongoing preparedness for a Russian invasion, having its military trained since 2014 by US military forces, allowing for the most current military strategy to be shared and utilized. This military preparation allowed for better homeland defence when Russia invaded the country in February 2022 and for the quick push of Russian troops out of the capital, utilizing training exercises and methods practiced with the US and NATO over the past eight years.[iv]
In this conflict, time is a critical component of both sides’ strategies. Putin knows a protracted war will significantly erode popular support for the conflict and deplete several inadequate Ukrainian military stockpiles.[v] President Zelensky has been adamant with NATO and the West on the importance of a timely response to Russia via funding and artillery to reduce the ability of Russia to wait out the war. Russia’s more extensive military infrastructure ensures its ability to withstand a more protracted battle, a luxury that Ukraine does not have without significant help from NATO.
An undefined approach to providing defence capacity will never give Ukraine the power to force Russia to negotiate or prevail in the conflict. Moving forward, NATO should focus on a two-pronged strategy regarding timelines: first, providing enough time and assistance to Ukraine to allow it to prevail against Russia capturing additional land or increasing mass casualties, and second, putting a negotiation timeline on Ukraine to be willing to negotiate with Russia in exchange for Western assistance. This will give Ukraine more opportunities to prepare for negotiations and have the resources they need to protect the remainder of the country.
The Leadership Strategy
In May 2022, US Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth made public several crucial lessons that her military has learned from the conflict in Ukraine. She believes that Russian failings on the battlefield demonstrate the significance of leadership, training, discipline, and logistics in lengthy warfare.[vi] In contrast, Zelensky has proven to be a true example of leadership throughout the war, reassuring his people and the global community in his competence and providing stability in a time of extreme stress and conflict.
Zelensky and his cabinet have gained almost a cult status on social and traditional media through their brave choices to remain in Kyiv through the invasion of the city, as well as their robust and transparent leadership strategy, openly sharing their needs, successes, and challenges with the population in daily updates, taking a relaxed and relatable posture often choosing to stand in front of war-torn landscapes, and using a relatable and accessible tone for all people watching. This relatability has reinforced his confident communication style that has resonated well with Ukrainians and the global community, helping to keep morale high.
After Zelensky’s conversations and appeals to the West for economic support, almost one thousand corporations withdrew from the Russian economy in 2022[vii]: not because they were obliged to or because of sanctions but because doing business in Russia became to be perceived negatively. This new type of geopolitical cancellation will have long-term effects on the Russian economy and how other nations see their economies and conflict. The relatability and support for Zelensky's leadership style have significantly impacted the Russian economy and perception of Russia as a whole.
Ukraine's leadership has been far more restrained in its use of sophisticated weaponry on the frontlines. Given the stakes, Ukrainian leaders have experimented with a mixture of innovative and rudimentary technology to gain a military edge, such as deploying deadly autonomous weapons in conflict or increasing reliance on artificial intelligence tools. This leadership posture, to hold back and be thoughtful about the use of technology and artillery due to necessity and strategy, have allowed Ukraine to continue innovation throughout a year of ongoing warfare.
The Technology (or lack of) Strategy
Ukraine has taken a twofold strategy to use technology on the battlefield, and the lack of technology to protect their signals intelligence and human resources. This strategy has formed over several attempts of trial and error, depicting a delicate balance between the proper times and regions to deploy different kinds of technology (UAVs, long-range and hypersonic missiles, combatting the Russian disinformation machine, etc.). The training and support from NATO and the West on these programmes have been imperative to Ukrainian success thus far.
In addition to Wormuth’s comments on Ukrainian military leadership, she emphasized that the Ukrainian Army must decrease electronic signals, particularly from cell phones, protect against advanced drones, and sustain weapons stocks and the defence industrial bases.[viii] This became a vital strategic tool for Ukraine, as low-end technology, often available to civilians off-the-shelf, has been a critical advantage. Items such as commercial quadcopter drones and Starlink satellite internet terminals have enabled the Ukrainian military to empower themselves with technologies that significantly enhance command and control, communications, and situational awareness.[ix]
Mid-tier drones modified for military usage give crucial real-time tracking and surveillance data for troops on the ground. Their aerial information gathering enables compact, mobile militias to make the best possible use of Ukraine’s limited and depleting high-tech weaponry. Ukraine has mastered the impressive integration and use of this assortment of technologies and capacities. It starkly contrasts Russia's technological usage or the traditional NATO models of hybrid warfare, often relying on their most advanced technologies, underutilizing more basic models that are not usually tracked by signals technology.
In addition to providing precise surveillance that can assist intelligence, the videos acquired by quadcopters could assist in assessing responsibility for war crimes following the conclusion of a conflict. "This is one of the first cases we have had where drones have collected so much applicable information for war crimes investigations against civilians," Faine Greenwood, a civilian drone researcher, has stated. Greenwood is an expert with small drones during wartime and has recorded and logged over 350 instances in Ukraine involving consumer drones, including video footage published on Twitter, Telegram, YouTube, and other social media platforms.[x] These videos can be imperative in proving war crimes by Russia, evidence that has never been able to be placed before the international courts.
Conclusions
The world is still watching how Ukraine, NATO, and the US respond to the next year of possible warfare in the region. This invasion is being used as a global example for countries like China and Serbia, who have threatened to invade territories they claim to be theirs, Taiwan and Kosovo, respectively. The response to Russia will be remembered by these regions and used in their future strategies to achieve their strategic objectives. If NATO and the West hope to avoid these conflicts in the future, it is imperative to work quickly to combat and hold Russia accountable for the conflict in Ukraine.
Through observation of the first year of the war, NATO and the West can learn from Ukraine's successes and lean further into them, focusing on time, technology, and leadership in the coming year to help as a catalyst to the end of the war. Despite valiant attempts to protect its borders and populations from ongoing war crimes, Ukraine cannot combat Russia alone. NATO and the West will need to find concrete ways to ensure ongoing negotiations and protect the Ukrainian people from further casualties and trauma through ensuring a timely response, excellent leadership, and the implementation of hybrid technology styles to collect intelligence and evidence of war crimes.
No comments:
Post a Comment