Space Development Agency Tracking Layer satellites will keep eyes on both ballistic and hypersonic missiles. (Graphic: L3Harris)
Updated 4/14/23 at 12:41 pm ET with information from the 2023 Space Threat Assessment published by CSIS.
SPACE SYMPOSIUM — More and more nations are developing more advanced counterspace capabilities, in a worrying trend of “proliferation,” though the conflict in Ukraine appears to have demonstrated the limited value in destructive weapons, according to the authors of a new report published by the Secure World Foundation.
The SWF’s survey of 11 nations, released today ahead of the Space Symposium conference, provides an update on the spreading space arms race detailed in the group’s report last year. Over the five years of studying counterspace capabilities detailed in annual reports, one of its authors, Brian Weeden, said a leading trend was definitely “proliferation.”
“On the destructive side, we’ve seen it go from originally two countries in the Cold War, to then China and now four in India, and there’s a lot of concerns over might there be a fifth and a sixth,” Weeden said during a briefing with reporters ahead of the report’s release, referring to the use of destructive anti-satellite weapons, or ASATs.
“And then we’re seeing much more, I would say proliferation on the non-destructive capabilities,” Weeden said. There’s widespread interest in space situational awareness among spacefaring nations, he added, with “growing research on directed energy across quite a few countries.”
Victoria Samson, who co-authored the report, pointed as well to the growth of dedicated military space organizations.
“We’re seeing a lot of that happening,” she said of the creation of branches like the Space Force. “I think that’s a recognition both of how important space is from a national security viewpoint, but then also maybe the idea that, if you are a major actor, this is something that you need to have to ensure your access to space. I don’t know if I necessarily agree with that,” she continued, “but that’s how a lot of countries are choosing to handle this sort of circumstance.”
Many feared Russia might wield an ASAT capability against Ukraine especially since Russia used one in the months leading up to the war, yet after a year of conflict, Weeden highlighted that ASAT weapons have yet to be deployed.
“For all of the hype and the predictions about why Russia did their destructive ASAT test in November 2021, that has not shown up in the conflict,” Weeden said. Though some predicted that Russia was using the test as a warning to the West to stay out of Ukraine, if that was the case, Weeden said, then that attempted deterrence failed.
Russia’s reluctance to blast a satellite out of orbit may be in large part due to the plummeting utility of trying in the first place, particularly for proliferated low-earth orbit constellations like Starlink. So far, Weeden emphasized that Russia has limited operations to cyber and electronic warfare against satellite systems Ukraine is relying on to coordinate its defense.
“If you’ve got a constellation of a couple thousand satellites or you’ve got hundreds of commercial imaging satellites, destructive weapons are not all that useful in countering those because if you take out one or two, it doesn’t really have an effect,” he said.
The SWF report’s findings in many ways mirror those of another global survey on counterspace published today by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“As space capabilities continue to demonstrate their utility, from peacetime to conflict, it should come as no surprise that adversaries seek to block their use,” CSIS said in a summary.
Both the CSIS and SWF reports note the US is wrangling an international coalition to implement a moratorium on ASAT tests to prevent an even greater amount of orbital debris than the over 32,300 pieces currently tracked.
CSIS’s report discussed Russia’s space-related activities in Ukraine and noted that after Russia jammed Starlink terminals in March 2022, the company was able to quickly counter the attack and has not experienced a similar disruption since. Russian forces also seem to have made little use of more advanced non-kinetic weapons rumored to have been deployed in Ukraine, leaving many experts “surprised at Russia’s lack of success with electronic warfare systems,” according to the report. That may be because Russia is holding more advanced capabilities in reserve, the effects of their attacks are not being disclosed, or Russia’s counterspace prowess is not as effective as was previously thought.
The CSIS report additionally notes that maneuvers by a Russian inspector satellite known as Luch may be gathering signals intelligence to bolster the country’s war efforts. CSIS says that prior to Russia launching its invasion of Ukraine, Luch sidled up next to an Intelsat satellite providing European coverage and has been conducting proximity operations near Intelsat satellites since, loitering much longer than usual for about 150 days at each. The Intselsat satellites transmit Ku- and C-band frequencies often used for secure military communications, though the report emphasizes it’s unclear if the satellites are actively “supporting any military operations in the region.”
SWF’s Samson said that other countries seem to be heeding their own lessons about not only the hazards posed by destroying satellites but the efficacy of non-kinetic attacks.
“If you look at the other countries in this report like Australia and South Korea, they’re learning as well,” she said. “Destructive weapons are not helpful, but something that can interfere with an enemy’s capability like non-destructive electronic warfare, they’re absolutely interested in.
“A lot of people are picking up the lesson about what is useful versus what is just something that maybe fits your political base but not really helpful for the military context,” she said.
The logic that proliferating satellites lowers the chance of a destructive attack against them has been fully embraced by the United States Space Force, whose chief Gen. Chance Saltzman explained the strategy during a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 14.
“In low Earth orbit to provide the coverage, you have to have a vastly greater number of satellites,” he said. “By going to low Earth orbit, we’re buying smaller satellites and more of them, which creates a targeting problem.” That problem, in turn, requires downing so many satellites that “the escalatory threshold is raised to the point where they probably wouldn’t [attack].”
The Pentagon on April 2 took its first step in fielding that new constellation with the launch of the inaugural Space Development Agency’s Tranche 0 satellites. Hundreds more are planned to be sent up to low Earth orbit, where the brand new birds will track missiles and transport data around the globe.
The Space Force will launch tranches roughly every two years to build out the constellation, with an expectation of delivering capability by 2027.
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