A war game by a Japanese think tank simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan resulted in a defeat for Beijing, with ghastly losses of troops and equipment on both sides, the Nikkei Asia magazine reported yesterday.
The tabletop simulation conducted by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation envisioned the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launching an amphibious attack on Taiwan in 2026 against the combined forces of Taiwan, Japan and the US, it said.
The exercise was conducted over four days through Jan. 21, with close to 30 participants, including retired Japanese military officers, and academics and researchers from the US and Japan, it said.
The army’s 564 Armored Brigade poses with the national flag in Kaohsiung on Jan. 11.
The Chinese offensive failed to seize Taiwan after a two-week struggle that cost the PLA 156 warships, including two aircraft carriers, 168 fighter jets, 48 transport aircraft and more than 40,000 soldiers killed or wounded, it said.
The victory came at a heavy price for the defending forces, who lost more than 26,000 military personnel, scores of warships and hundreds of aircraft, the report said.
The exercise had a PLA command center for the Taiwan front that was capable of deploying all of China’s aircraft, submarines and surface combat capabilities, it said.
In response, the US sent two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and advanced stealth fighter jets to the theater, while Tokyo permitted the US to operate from Japan Self-Defense Forces bases and civilian airports on Okinawa and Kyushu after invoking a state of emergency, the report said.
After detecting Chinese plans to attack its military bases being used by the US, Japan designated the conflict as an existential threat, prompting Japanese F-35s and warships to join the US in launching missile attacks against the PLA, it said.
The US and Japanese forces overwhelmed China’s, cutting the PLA’s supply lines before seizing control of the airspace over Taiwan in a decisive blow that terminated the battle, it said.
The exercise ended with casualties among Taiwan’s armed forces totaling 13,000 killed, wounded or captured, while 18 warships and 200 warplanes were lost.
The US military’s casualties tallied at 10,700 service members, 19 ships and 400 warplanes, while the Japan Self-Defense Forces lost 15 ships, 144 fighter jets and 2,500 military personnel. Hundreds to 1,000 civilians were killed or wounded by Chinese strikes in Japan, the exercise showed.
Last year, the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted a series of tabletop exercises on a Taiwan Strait conflict, which found that China was defeated in a majority of the 24 simulations, but at a similarly high cost to the forces of Taiwan, the US and Japan, the report said.
The Sasakawa and CSIS games were predicated on current capabilities and arsenals projected for 2026, so outcomes would differ if the PLA significantly improves its capabilities, it said.
China is rapidly building up its military and some experts believe Beijing is poised to swing the balance of the west Pacific to its favor within two years, the report said, adding that China is also swiftly expanding its nuclear arsenal.
“We must make every possible preparation for substantial losses while we still can,” Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior research fellow at the foundation, was quoted as saying.
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