Howard Mustoe
As Ukraine faces down a Russian offensive - and lays the groundwork for an expected fightback of its own in spring - focus is once again turning to whether either side has the capability for a decisive breakthrough.
Despite mass mobilisation and a decision to pull increasingly elderly vehicles out of storage, Russia is still running low on the materiel it needs.
Analysts believe it is continuing to burn through an unsustainable number of artillery shells as it grinds forward around the devastated city of Bakhmut. Even supplies of Iranian kamikaze drones appear to have run short.
So there is little surprise that Western minds are now grappling with how to prevent a potential gamechanger: the involvement of China as a provider of arms.
Beijing, long a supporter of Russia on the sidelines, is closely examining whether it should take a more active role - and begin sending Vladimir Putin's struggling armies the equipment they need for a more sustained and damaging campaign against the Ukrainians. Such a decision could transform the conflict - and give China's manufacturers a crucial testbed as they evaluate weapons amid fears over an invasion of Taiwan.
Last week, the US upped the ante in warning China away from arming Russia in its war on Ukraine.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Beijing that Chinese firms and leaders could be on the receiving end of sanctions if they intervene.
"We will not hesitate, for example, to target Chinese companies or individuals that violate our sanctions or otherwise engage in supporting the Russian war effort,” he said on a trip to Kazakhstan.
It was the latest in a series of messages from the US to Beijing, and whether they are heeded will be down to Chinese President Xi Jinping. So far China has denied it is an option.
Yet navigational gear, jet fighter parts and jamming technology and other dual-use equipment have already been shipped from China to Russia, the Wall Street Journal reported, after consulting Russian customs data.
China has plenty more to offer Russia, particularly in the area of missiles and guided weapons, says John Kennedy of RAND Corporation, although basic supplies such as artillery shells and drones will likely be top of its shopping list.
“The West is concerned about the development of China’s most advanced weaponry, its developments in guided weapons, anti-ship systems and so on,” he says.
“But Russia does not need advanced equipment now. – The question turns on whether China will offer the more mundane munitions Russia appears to need, and which the Chinese manufacturing base could potentially supply.”
The Chinese war machine is increasingly sophisticated, with weapons and technology to rival that of Nato.
In 2021 China reportedly test-fired a hypersonic projectile around the globe, intensifying a race to develop ways of halting the weapons, which travel at speeds of at least Mach 5, leaving little time to deploy countermeasures and intercept the weapon. The move served as a wake up call to the West on how far China has come as a military-technological power.
China has been growing its manufacturing base slowly and steadily over time, developing arms in tandem with civil products.
For many years it bought Russian products and then made its own versions, learning as it went.
But now Chinese defence firms rank among the biggest in the world and the role of Russia as supplier and China as buyer could reverse.
According to a ranking of top weapons contractors by Defense News, China now has seven of the 20 biggest defence contractors in the world by sales. Its largest, Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), is bigger than BAE Systems, Britain's top arms business.
AVIC is responsible for China’s push into jet fighter technology, building its newest fighter jet the Chengdu J-20, but also regional passenger aircraft and business jets.
In common with many big defence companies controlled by Beijing, it also builds civil equipment, using the one to learn from the other.
The country’s large, centrally organised economy may assist it in developments in the long term, says Trevor Taylor, head of research into Defence, Industries and Society at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies think tank.
Chinese defence spending grew by 5.1pc in 2021 to $293bn, compared to a 1.7pc decline in global defence spending, adjusted for inflation.
The country has a strategy measured in decades. The People’s Liberation Army is following a grand plan to become a war-winning machine by the middle of the century, according to analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
This process, started in 2013, includes integrating artificial intelligence into its decision-making by 2035. Beijing has embarked on a building spree of warships, with more than a dozen cruisers, destroyers and aircraft carriers
Aircraft-wise, it has shelved its cold-war era fleet of Russian-influenced jets and replaced them with hundreds of fourth-generation fighters, broadly comparable to the UK’s Eurofighter in terms of their role.
It is now building a fleet of stealthy fighters of the kind the West has only quite recently developed, led by the Chengdu J-20, which looks strikingly similar to the US F-22 Raptor.
The Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter jet bears a striking resemblance to the US F-22 Raptor CREDIT: Cynthia Lee / Alamy Stock Photo
Precisely how close Chinese warplanes are to their Western counterparts in terms of ability is not easy to say, says Mr Tayor.
Displays of aircraft and complex arms, when they are seen at all, are viewed in highly stage-managed circumstances, such as its J-31, considered a competitor to the F-35 attack jet flown from Britain’s aircraft carriers.
“They’ve got an aircraft that looks like the F-35 on the outside, but whether it's really like one to fly on the inside, you know, I very much doubt,” says Mr Taylor.
There are a few weaknesses China has yet to overcome, says Mr Taylor. Its jet engines rely heavily on Russian technology, which is itself behind the West, at least in terms of durability.
Once caught up, innovating will be a different matter, he says, requiring a completely different set of skills.
But one approach Chinese military scientists seem to have could assist them if they do overtake, said Mr Taylor.
“A bit like North Korea, they don't seem to be too upset by failure - they use failure as a learning exercise,” he says.
“That's a pretty positive stance to use, if you're trying to develop quickly.
“We can be pretty sure that in five years time, they're going to be significantly better.”
If Russia is successful in persuading Beijing that it is worth the political risk, Xi may not want to trumpet the outcome, says RAND’s John Kennedy, and since Russia’s need is great, he may not need to.
“There is a question over whether Russia would ask China to provide equipment publicly. Either way, China may be able to extract a significant price for providing even basic equipment,” he says.
This could be more access to the areas where Russia is still in a dominant position, such as space and jet engines.
But in reality, the co-operation may be much more insipid.
Russian industry outside of defence is already turning to Chinese suppliers, according Mr Kennedy, as sanctions cut off access to Western parts from Europe and North America. So even if no munitions are forthcoming for Russia, help is already on the way.
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