Section A: India-China Relations
This section is brought to you by Anushka Saxena
This week, there have been some statements of interest to cover, as well as a Bill from the US Congress that may be both, a boon and a bane for India.
To begin with, interesting comments were made by Indian EAM S. Jaishankar and Chief of Army Staff General Manoj Pande on China, at the India Today Conclave held in New Delhi on 17 and 18 March, 2023.
Indian Express reports: “The situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh remains “very fragile” and “quite dangerous” in terms of military assessment, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said Saturday, in a significant choice of words that underlines the current state of the India-China border standoff that began nearly three years ago.”
It adds: “This is a very, I would say, challenging and abnormal phase in our ties with China. Why I say that is because from 1988 when Rajiv Gandhi went there till 2020 the understanding was that peace and tranquility on the border would be maintained,” Jaishankar said.
He said the Chinese violated the agreements in 2020 and “the consequences of it were seen in Galwan Valley and other areas”. “We have deployed our troops, we have stood our ground and the situation to my mind still remains very fragile because there are places where our deployments are very close up and in military assessment, actually therefore, quite dangerous,” he said.
S. Jaishankar also reiterated the Indian position that the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative violates national integrity and sovereignty as it passes through the PoK.
The EAM’s sentiments were echoed and his dispatch on deployments was reaffirmed a day before his remarks by General Manoj Pande, who said at the Conclave that “We have adequate reserves to deal with any contingencies. With the infusion of new technology and weapon systems, our capability development is an ongoing endeavour. Equally, we are focussing on infrastructure development, especially in forward areas like roads, helipads, etc.”
Manoj Pande regardless propagated negotiation over aggression. “It’s only through dialogue and talking to each other that we can find a resolution. In the balance friction points that is what our aim and endeavour is,” he said, adding that “till the time it happens, our deployment of forces, alertness level will continue to remain at a high level.”
Apart from these, Takshashila Fellow Manoj Kewalramani also made comments at the India Today Conclave on ‘China Strategy’, and following are some of the main takeaways for our readers:
The best-laid plans often end up facing reality, and China is, since its early days, trying to emerge as a global power. You can compare different metrics of China’s relationship and its comparative strengths with regard to the United States, and there is a stark disparity between the comprehensive national powers of China and the United States.
If you look at military power projection, Beijing’s ability to project power beyond its near seas is extremely limited in the Indian Ocean. Its ability to negotiate deals between countries is extremely limited. And this is keeping in mind that we’ve just seen some sort of an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia where China swooped in at the last minute to try and broker. But is that really a peace deal? No, it’s an agreement to talk as opposed to necessarily trying to start a new era in the Middle East.
This is not to say that China has no significant comprehensive national power. But if you’re still going to compare China with the United States, there is still significant daylight between them. Has that gap shrunk over the last thirty years? Obviously, it has. And that is a matter of concern.
Beijing is not trying to downplay its intentions. It’s quite obvious that it’s talking much more publicly about its intentions. If you listen to what Xi Jinping is saying, he’s no longer downplaying what he wants the world order to be like. If you look at what their projections for their own desires are in terms of the global governance architecture that they want, his initiative on Global Development, Belt and Road, Global Security Initiative, and now the Global Civilization Initiative - all of those talk about a world that he wants to create.
[Xi] has learned lessons from the Made in China 2025 fiasco which led to the response in the United States and the Trump administration on trade, because that really crystallized the nature of the economic threat that China presented.
But today he [Xi] doesn’t have the capability to achieve those goals of dominance and some of that, we need to measure in our understanding of what China maybe desires to do and what it can do. We need to keep that gap between intent and capability in mind, that then respond in kind to try and shape the kind of response or behaviour we want from China.
Before that, on 14 March, United States Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) published a press release on a bipartisan Resolution he and Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) introduced in the US Senate in February 2023, on reaffirming the United States’ recognition of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of the Republic of India.
“At a time when China continues to pose grave and gathering threats to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, it’s critical for the United States to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our strategic partners in the region—especially India,” said Senator Hagerty. “This bipartisan resolution expresses the Senate’s support for unequivocally recognizing the state of Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India, condemning China’s military aggression to change the status quo along the Line of Actual Control, and further enhancing the U.S.-India strategic partnership and the Quad in support of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”
The text of the Resolution itself also says that “since the Sino-Indian war of 1962, the United States has recognized the McMahon Line as the international boundary between the People’s Republic of China and the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.”
The Senators’ resolution condemns additional PRC provocations, including the People’s Republic of China’s use of military force to change the status quo along the Line of Actual Control, construction of villages in contested areas, publication of maps with Mandarin-language names for cities and feature in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, and expansion of PRC territorial claims in Bhutan.
Furthermore, the resolution commends the Government of India for taking steps to defend itself against aggression and security threats from the People’s Republic of China. These efforts include securing India’s telecommunications infrastructure; examining its procurement processes and supply chains; implementing investment screening standards; and expanding its cooperation with Taiwan in public health and other sectors.
Hagerty also argues that the resolution serves to further strengthen the U.S.-India bilateral partnership regarding defense, technology, economics, and people-to-people ties and promotes enhancing our multilateral cooperation with India through the Quad, the East Asia Summit alongside our partners in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and other international fora.
It seems as if India’s China challenge has awoken the US in a reinvigorated way this year, with recent events such as the establishment of the India-US Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) in January 2023, the introduction of the abovementioned resolution in February, and now, the appointment of an American Ambassador to India on March 15.
Quartz reports: On Wednesday (March 15), the US Senate confirmed Eric Garcetti as the next ambassador to India after a gap of more than two years. Since January 2021, the US has not had an envoy in New Delhi, which is the longest period of diplomatic vacuum between the two countries.
It adds: “We see India as a trusted technology partner and we want to deepen our tech relationship with India...We want to deepen our technology relationship with India,” Gina Raimondo, US commerce secretary said last week, during a four-day visit to the south Asian nation.
Thoughts: While America’s affirmation of India’s long held position on the border and its efforts to finally appoint an Ambassador to accord India the diplomatic status it deserves is welcome, it may also create more tensions between India and China.
China’s geopolitical ambitions and strategies are dominated by competition with the US. This can be gauged from the conflicting responses of the two parties on supply chain resilience and critical technology self-reliance, the Russia-Ukraine war, or the larger hierarchy of power prevalent in the Indo-Pacific. Naturally, China is also wary of US interference in India’s China policy. For example, this wariness plays out in how China narrativizes US presence in the Indo-Pacific, and what role it sees for India in it. The Chinese project India as a “key variable” in the US’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, and view India’s enhancing engagement with the Quad as an active effort to balance and contain it. Even recently, in November 2022, China criticized joint India-US military drills in Uttarakhand as “not conducive to the trust between India and China.”
At the same time, they express relief at India’s withdrawal from the trade pillar of the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. In India’s move, China finds the implication that India and the US have an unresolvable dispute over the mechanism, which means that the “Western hype of ‘the US succeeded in winning over India’” is “nonsense.” Overall, in the endeavour to make more believable the threat of an India-US nexus, China inflates such narratives, and acts to arm-twist India into maintaining an autonomous policy.
Hence, we must continue to anticipate a greater emphasis within Chinese discourse and policy on India’s strategic autonomy from the US and the West, as well as prolonging the instability on the border to inhibit India’s regional partnerships and ambitions. At the same time, China could also see a potential opportunity if not a genuine desire to improve its relations with India to deter its full-fledged alliance with the US. As yet, neither have we seen any adjustments in China’s diplomatic approach to India, nor any disruptions in the India-US economic and defense partnerships.
Section B: Chinese Domestic Politics
This section is brought to you by Amit Kumar
This week, there is a lot of post-Two Sessions discussion in Domestic Politics.
Xi Jinping’s Speech
First up is Xi Jinping’s speech that he delivered at the conclusion of the first session of the 14th NPC. In the speech, he begins by thanking the “deputies and the Chinese people of all ethnic groups” for the trust placed in him to “continue to serve as the President of PRC” for the third time. He says “people’s trust has been his greatest source of strength” and “the greatest responsibility” on his shoulders. He pledged his allegiance to the Constitution and vowed to “take the needs of the country” as his “mission and the people’s interests as the yardstick to follow,”; be honest, devoted and “never fail to live up to the great trust of the deputies and the people.”
Next, as is customary in his speeches, he refers to the great and glorious ancient Chinese civilization spanning over 5000 years being reduced to a “semi-feudal and semi-colonial society” with the advent of modern times which witnessed frequent “bullying by the foreign powers.”
He says that the Party since its inception has tirelessly worked hard to put an end to the great suffering and national humiliation that besieged the Chinese people for a century. Consequently, “the Chinese people have become the masters of their future” and the “Chinese nation has achieved the great transformation from standing up and growing prosperous to becoming strong (referring to the New Era under his leadership).” He says that “China’s national rejuvenation has become a historical inevitability.”
Xi then outlines the Party’s central task to build “China into a great modern socialist country in all respects and advance national rejuvenation on all fronts” by the end of the mid-century. Alluding to the strategic plans made at the 20th CPC National Congress, he called for the implementation of the “Five-Sphere Integrated Plan and the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy.”
Xi then refers to “unswervingly promote high-quality development” and faithful application of the “new development philosophy” to foster a “new development pattern” in order to achieve national rejuvenation. He stressed achieving an “innovation-driven development strategy” and “greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology.”
He emphasized the need to “coordinate development and security” by underlining security as “the foundation of development and stability” and the “pre-requisite for prosperity, and therefore, “resolutely pursue a holistic approach to national security, improve national security system, strengthen our capacity for safeguarding national security, enhance public security governance and improve social governance system.”
Referring to Hong Kong and Macau, Xi underlined the need to promote the practice of ‘one country, two systems’ toward the “great cause of national reunification.” He pledged a “high degree of autonomy” and commitment to “law-based governance” in Hong Kong and Macau. On the Taiwan question, he said that “realizing China’s complete reunification is a shared aspiration” of the Chinese nation and the essence of national rejuvenation. He referred to the “Party’s overall policy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era (i.e. under Xi’s rule - emphasis added), uphold the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus and “resolutely oppose foreign interference and separatist activities aimed at ‘Taiwan independence’ and unswervingly promoted progress towards national reunification.”
Xi also alluded to the “building of a community with a shared future for mankind” and asserted that “China’s development benefits the world” and that “China cannot develop in isolation from the world” to underline the importance of “high-level opening up” and an “open world economy.” He stressed promoting the implementation of the Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative to contribute to global peace and development.
Lastly, he underlined the significance of the centralized and unified leadership of the CPC central committee and the need to continue to carry out self-reform, fight corruption and party building to advance the cause of national rejuvenation.
Li Qiang’s Press Conference
Chinese Premier Li Qiang held the first press conference after the closing of the first session of the 14th NPC on March 13 where he answered questions by Chinese and foreign journalists on a range of issues. Below is a summary of his responses.
On the goals and priorities of the new government:
Li Qiang underscored the implementation of the comprehensive and strategic plan for the country’s development that was laid down at the 20th Party Congress held in October 2022 as the key government priority. He identified following a ‘people-centered development approach’, promoting ‘high-quality development development’ and ‘deepening reform and opening-up’ as the three major priorities of the government.
On the economy, policies:
Li Qiang admitted to the not-so-optimistic prospect of the global economy this year and referred to the several factors that are driving uncertainty, instability, and unpredictability. Against this backdrop, he said the task of achieving the 5% growth rate on such a high base as China’s is a difficult task and would require “redoubled efforts.”
On the government’s specific economic policies, he said that the government would adhere to the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) comprehensive plan that was unveiled in December 2022. Prioritizing ‘stability’ and ‘high-quality development’ would be central.
On the question of ‘drags on the Chinese economy’, the Premier said that every country is facing some difficulties and China is no different. He assured that the Chinese people will pull through these difficult times. He said that the trends in the last two months of this year look promising leading international organizations to revise upward their forecast of the Chinese economy.
On Hong Kong and Macau:
Li said that the government attaches great importance to Hong Kong and Macau but they faced “some difficulties in their economic development” due to “various factors” in recent years. “The central government will fully, faithfully and resolutely implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems,” he said.
On Private economy and boosting business confidence:
Li said that Xi Jinping has already stressed on the “importance of ensuring healthy and high-quality development of the private sector” during his meeting with the CPPCC National Committee members during the two sessions.
Referring to the party and the government’s policy of ‘two unswervings’ which essentially means that private enterprises will be supported at par with the state-owned enterprises (SOEs), Li said that the private sector is an important component of China’s basic economic system.
He promised that “private enterprises will enjoy a better environment and broader space for development” and that the “government will continue to foster a market-oriented and law-based business environment in keeping with international standards, treat companies under all types of ownership as equals, protect property rights of enterprises and the rights and interests of entrepreneurs in accordance with law.”
The government will “create a level playing field for all kinds of market entities” and make efforts “to support private enterprises.”
Quick Thought: Ever since Li Qiang has taken over as Chinese Premier, observers are optimistic that Li will exercise more autonomy given he is a Xi loyalist and that the environment for private enterprises would improve because Li is a pragmatist and is known for his pro-business approach. However, I am a little sceptical.
Firstly, there are real constraints that may prevent Li Qiang from exercising greater autonomy. The State Council under Xi has witnessed consistent erosion of its authority and several of its bodies have been placed under direct party oversight. Then, Xi has given no signs to indicate that Li would have the final say in matters of economy. This is particularly evident in the fact that Li has not returned as the Chairman of the Party Leading Small Group (LSG) on Economy and Finance, a position that has traditionally been held by the Premier until Xi placed it under the chairmanship of the General Secretary. This is despite the fact the current Premier is a Xi loyalist.
Secondly, regarding the policy on private enterprises, despite the government’s efforts to enthuse confidence by underlining the ‘two unswervings’, there is a need to recall that every such reiteration has been supplemented by the ‘three unchanged’ which essentially means that the policy against the private sector remains unchanged. Given the ‘tightening of regulations and crackdown’ has largely been the government policy in the last three years, the underlying hidden message seems that while the government is ready to support private enterprises but it will do so only so long the private sector adheres to the party line.
On unemployment, negative population growth and demography:
Li said that the solution to unemployment lies in economic growth and the government will pursue the employment-first strategy. He vowed to increase government support in terms of employment services and technical training.
On the demographics and negative population growth, Li sought to dismiss the concerns surrounding it saying that one must not look just at “the quantity but also the quality of the population.”
He said that China has close to 900 million working-age population and it adds more than 15 million people to its workforce every year, and that more than 240 million people have higher education. Further, “the average length of employment received by new entrants into the workforce has increased to 14 years. Therefore, China’s demographic dividend has not disappeared, and our talent dividend is in the making.”
On the question of retirement policy, Li said that “we will conduct careful studies and thorough analysis to roll out the policy prudently in due course.”
On COVID measures:
While claiming a major and decisive victory against COVID, Li said, “we have always put the people and life above everything else” and “adopted a well-conceived and targeted approach, and adjusted and improved our response measures in light of changing conditions.” He justified the Dynamic Zero COVID policy during the first two years. He then claimed a successful and smooth transition in the COVID response phase within a span of two months to restore economic and social stability.
On Taiwan:
While emphasizing that “Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are members of one and the same family,” Li called for the promotion of “economic and cultural exchanges and cooperation across the Taiwan Strait on the basis one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus.”
On rural revitalisation:
Stating that China is a big agricultural country and hosts close to 500 million permanent rural residents, Li said that China’s socialist modernization is incomplete without rural sector modernization. He said that rural revitalization is a key priority for General Secretary Xi Jinping, and requires adherence to the keywords: comprehensive, distinctive and reforms.
The comprehensiveness indicates an overall approach that is just not limited to economic growth but also takes into account the ecological, social and cultural value of the countryside. ‘Distinctiveness’ refers to development based on local strength, customs and values.
He outlined ‘food security’ as a key priority for the country and said that China’s grain output has remained at over 650 million metric tons for eight years now. “Going forward, we will further increase our grain production capacity” to ensure that “the rice bowl of the over 1.4 billion Chinese people” is “firmly held in our own hands,” he said.
On decoupling:
Li said that decoupling will benefit none and pointed to the strong trade relations between the US and China by underlining the record trade figures achieved last year which stood at $760 billion. He called for China-US cooperation and said that “encirclement and suppression is in no one’s interest.”
Section C: Economy and Tech
This section is brought to you by Amit Kumar
The following pieces of news are of significance from the past week:
The Party overtakes control of China’s financial sector
The Party and State Institutional Reform Plan unveiled during the 14th NPC’s inaugural session placed the country’s financial sector under the Party’s supervision. The Xinhua text informs that a central commission for finance will be established under the leadership of the CPC’s Central Committee which will be responsible for the “top-level design, overall coordination, overall promotion, and supervision of implementation of financial stability and development, study and review of major policies and major issues in the financial field, and serve as the Party Central Committee’s decision-making, discussion, and coordination organisation.”
The new reform does away with the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council that earlier dealt with the issues of the financial sector.
The SCMP reports that this move will allow the party to oversee the country’s USD $58 trillion worth of banking, insurance, and securities assets. Xi Jinping will likely head the new central commission, the report said.
Observers opine that the reform indicates the high priority that the Party attaches to the financial regulations and it will allow the Party to better mitigate domestic and overseas risk. The step comes when financial markets across the world are under stress due to US Fed’s rate hikes, the Russia-Ukraine war, US-China tensions, and now the SVB default.
The current set of reforms further strengthens the Party’s control of matters that were earlier
US-China economic relations becoming less interdependent: Peterson Institute of International Economics
Despite the data pointing to the contrary, the Peterson Institute of International Economics (PIIE) has stated the two biggest economies are becoming “less directly interdependent,” according to SCMP. Recently, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis had informed that in 2022, the US exports to China increased by US $2.4 billion year-on-year while China’s exports to the US increased by US $31.8 billion to US$536.8 billion, the report said.
The US-based PIIE however dismissed the trends as “misleading” pointing to the drop in the share of manufacturing goods in the US-China bilateral trade. It stated that while “manufacturing goods represented 44 percent of the total amount of US goods and services exports to China” before the pre-trade war period (2018), the “proportion had fallen to 41 percent” by 2022. In the same period, “China’s total imports of manufactured goods also fell by 8 percent last year.”
PIIE stated that China is “shifting some purchases of foreign goods away from the US” and that both the US and China are operating under the same fear “that the other side will suddenly weaponise trade flows - cut off imports or exports - in the name of security.” It pointed to the falling US automobile exports to China, adding that the slump in semiconductor sector sales - which formed a significant component of US-China trade, may never recover after the US’ export control measures.
Here’s an interesting tweet thread on this:
US exports to China cratered during Trump’s trade war, and American sales of goods and services continue to suffer. Yet, US exports to China somehow reached "record levels" in 2022. Wait, wut? Making sense of China's slow decoupling. My latest 1/ ๐งต piie.com/blogs/realtime…
piie.comFive years into the trade war, China continues its slow decoupling from US exportsNewly released data show US exports are falling farther and farther behind foreign peers also selling into the Chinese market.1:02 PM ∙ Mar 16, 2023
China’s Semiconductor output shrinks by 17 percent in 2023
According to an SCMP report, China’s semiconductor output has shrunk 17 percent in the first two months of 2023. According to the data released by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the total production of ICs in January and February stood at 44.3 billion units compared to 57.3 billion units during the same period last year (a decline of 1.2% from previous year). The year-on-year decline in 2022 was recorded at 11.6 percent.
According to NBS data, “shipments of microprocessor dropped 21.9 percent year on year to 46 million units in the first two moths amid weak consumer dubbed, while in the same period smartphone output in China fell 14.1 percent year on year.”
Quoting China’s customs data, the report informs: “In January and February, the volume of China’s chip imports slumped 26.5 percent to 67.6 billion units, a drop steeper than the 15.3 percent decline recorded for all of 2022. The IC exports fell 20.9 percent year on year, compared with a 0.5 percent increase a year ago.
Huawei resorts to replacements and redesigning components to overcome US tech sanctions: Huawei Founder
Ren Zhengfei, Huawei’s founder, has revealed that the company has “replaced more than 13,000 components in its range of products with local substitutes and redesigned over 4000 circuit boards in the past three years,” in its “efforts to overcome years of US sanctions.”
He informed that the company has managed to “stabilise” the production of circuit boards. The report informs that Huawei is set to “launch MetaERP, its own resources planning system, next month and fully use its own operating system, data system, compiler and language.” Ren also informed that in 2022, Huawei spend US$23.8 billion on research and development.
Huawei was added to the US export blacklist or the entity list in 2019 by the Trump administration citing security reasons.
Section D: Foreign Policy Watch
This section is brought to you by Kingshuk Saha
There have been some very interesting developments over the past few days, which are worth capturing in this week’s section.
Global Civilization Initiative proposed by Xi Jinping
Xi Jinping on Wednesday, 15 March, attended the opening ceremony of the CPC in Dialogue with World Political Parties under the theme of in Beijing "Path towards Modernization: The Responsibility of Political Parties," Xi in his keynote address proposed a Global Civilisation Initiative (GCI).
Xi said, “countries need to uphold the principles of equality, mutual learning, dialogue and inclusiveness among civilizations and let cultural exchanges transcend estrangement, mutual learning transcends clashes, and coexistence transcend feelings of superiority. peace, development, equity, justice, democracy and freedom are the common aspirations of all peoples. Countries need to keep an open mind in appreciating the perceptions of values by different civilizations and refrain from imposing their own values or models on others and from stoking ideological confrontation”.
Song Wei, a professor at the school of international relations and diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University observed “China has achieved world-recognized achievements in combating the COVID-19 epidemic, and has successively proposed the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in the field of global governance.
He adds, especially after the 20th National Congress of the CPC, the international community has a newer, more accurate and more positive understanding of the Chinese path to modernization. China has always been an important supporter of multilateralism while the US is promoting unilateralism, and China's status in the field of global governance has also improved. Although China has made a series of achievements in governance modernization, it will never impose its own development model on others through political and other means.”
The Telegraph reports: The GCI is the third global initiative proposed by Xi in recent months after the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and the Global Security Initiative (GSI) under which China has clinched a peace deal between arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia. As a part of the agreement brokered by China, the two countries have agreed to establish diplomatic ties and improve their relations. In his address to the world political parties' meet, Xi was quoted by the official media as saying that countries need to explore the building of a global network for inter-civilization dialogue and cooperation, enrich the contents of exchanges and expand avenues of cooperation to promote mutual understanding and friendship among people of all countries.
Additionally, he stressed that countries need to fully harness the relevance of their histories and cultures to the present times, and push for the creative transformation and innovative development of their fine traditional cultures. The inheritance and innovation of civilizations should be highly valued, he said. He stressed that countries need to fully harness the relevance of their histories and cultures to the present times, and push for the creative transformation and innovative development of their fine traditional cultures.
Xi also advocated robust international people-to-people exchanges and cooperation, saying that countries need to explore the building of a global network for inter-civilizational dialogue and cooperation, and expand avenues of cooperation to promote mutual understanding and friendship among people of all countries. Hitting out at the developed countries, he said modernization is not "an exclusive patent" of a small handful of countries.
Cyril Maphosa, South African President, said, “He fully agrees with Xi's initiative. The history of South Africa in struggling for national independence makes its people value the importance of unity, harmony, inclusiveness and mutual respect. The initiative is particularly important considering the destructive challenges that the world is facing, such as climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, terrorism and geopolitical confrontation. South Africa appreciates China's foreign policy based on non-interference in domestic affairs and mutually beneficial cooperation, which are reflected in China's global initiatives and are crucial to promoting the collective growth of developing countries”.
Through the Global Civilizational Initiative, Xi Jinping wants to portray China as a global leader and its keen desire to engage the world as a civilizational state that respects diversity and harmonious growth for all, unlike the aggressive and exploitative west.
China says Aukus submarines deal embarks on ‘path of error and danger’
On Monday [13 March], Australia, US and UK unveiled details of their plan to provide Australia with nuclear-powered conventionally armed submarines to counter growing China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Guardian Reports: In a tripartite deal with the US and the UK, Australia has unveiled a plan to acquire a fleet of up to eight nuclear-powered submarines, forecast to cost up to $368bn between now and the mid-2050s. Australia will spend $9bn over the next four years. From this year Australian military and civilian personnel will embed with US and UK navies, including within both countries’ submarine industrial bases. From 2027 the UK and the US plan to rotate their nuclear-powered submarines through HMAS Stirling near Perth as part of a push to step up the training of Australians. Increased Chinese naval power and assertiveness – particularly in the South China Sea – has convinced the Australian government that it requires submarines capable of operating far from home bases, both as a deterrent and for attack capability in the event of a crisis. The current fleet of Collins-class conventional submarines is expected to lose its edge beginning in the 2030s.
Wang Wenbin, spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “The so-called AUKUS trilateral security partnership and the promotion of cutting-edge military technology cooperation, including nuclear submarines between the three countries, come under a typical Cold War mentality that will only stimulate an arms race, sabotage international nuclear non-proliferation systems and harm regional peace and stability”.
Chinese Mission to UN tweeted: “The nuclear submarine cooperation plan released today by #AUKUS is a blatant act that constitutes serious nuclear proliferation risks, undermines international non-proliferation system, fuels arms races, and hurts peace and stability in the region”.
The ABC News Reports: China has made no secret of its plans to diplomatically thwart Australia's AUKUS submarine plan, which it sees as part of a broader US effort to contain China's future military dominance of Asia. But rhetoric aside, China's real strategy is focused on stifling the submarine plan at the world's nuclear watchdog body in what will likely be a long-term effort to win over other member states. So far, China's diplomats are losing the battle, fuelling increasing frustration. China has the world's biggest navy, including at least 12 nuclear-powered submarines, with a quicker production capacity than the US and its allies. And not long after the AUKUS plan was first announced in 2021, Beijing launched a vigorous diplomatic campaign at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), arguing the plan blatantly breached the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The problem for Beijing is that it doesn’t. However, the deal does set a precedent that some analysts fear could be exploited by countries intent on using the cover of nuclear propulsion to secretly develop weapons. China’s diplomats have so far failed to convince IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi, who has expressed satisfaction that consultations between his agency and the AUKUS nations are in line with the treaty.
Kevin Rudd incoming Australian ambassador to the US said, “last week Aukus should be seen in the context of China’s own push to build the world’s largest navy. China currently operates 56 submarines, of which 12 are nuclear-powered.”
The SCMP Reports: The anglophone nations that make up the Aukus pact will need to undertake a fresh round of diplomacy in Southeast Asia to allay concerns that Australia’s submarine acquisition will further fuel US-China tensions and trigger a regional arms race, analysts say. The leaders of the United States, United Kingdom and Australia announced on Monday that Canberra will purchase up to five conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered US submarines, starting early in the 2030s, as part of efforts to thwart Beijing in the Pacific.
It adds: While Biden said he was not worried that Beijing would see Aukus as aggressive, the Chinese mission to the United Nations said on Tuesday that the “blatant” submarine plan “constitutes serious nuclear proliferation risks, undermines [the] international non-proliferation system, fuels arms races, and hurts peace and stability in the region.” Southeast Asian countries have previously expressed concerns that Australia’s nuclear-propelled submarines may mainly operate in their region, particularly in the South China Sea. The likes of Malaysia and Indonesia have also been anxious over the risk of nuclear proliferation, with Jakarta noting that sharing nuclear technology to power submarines could heighten the risk of new weapons of mass destruction. Vietnam and Thailand also share these concerns.
Michael E. O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow and Director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology said “The AUKUS deal’s specifics most of all, its commitment to increase the overall amount of U.S. and allied submarine shipbuilding capability make it a net win on these terms. AUKUS is significant for two other reasons: signaling and technology sharing. Canberra, London, and Washington have not always been on the same page regarding China, and AUKUS will strengthen their strategic collaboration in pushing back against Beijing’s assertive behaviour and aggression. Yet at the same time, the three countries may temper each other’s and especially America’s tendencies toward an overly confrontational China policy”.
The AUKUS submarine deals will deepen the hostility between China and the AUKUS member state. It will not only lead to an arms race in the region but will force the countries of the region to be part of one camp or the other.
China to resume visa issuance for foreigners
China will be allowing foreigners for the first time in the three years since the COVID-19 pandemic erupted by resuming all categories of visas to be issued from 15 March 2023.
The Hindustan Times Reports: China will resume issuing visas to tourists and other foreigners from March 15 marking a step in the country’s move to leave its strict Covid restrictions behind, China’s embassy in the US said in a statement. With this, visa-free entry will resume into Guangdong province for foreigners in groups from Hong Kong and Macau and for those on cruise ships stopping in Shanghai, the statement added. China moved away from its Covid-zero policy which involved frequent lockdowns, mass testing and closing borders that affected the country's economic growth. The policy was abruptly scrapped in early December after protests across China. In January, China ended mandatory quarantine for inbound travelers.
It adds: This comes as China’s new premier Li Qiang called for more effort to meet a 5% expansion target for 2023 this week. In China, only 115.7 million inbound and outbound trips were made in 2022 which is less than a fifth of those flown in 2019 before the pandemic hit, according to data from China’s Ministry of Public Security. Mainland residents made 64.6 million trips last year, data showed.
Vaughn Barber, chairman of the Australian Chamber of Commerce in China said “The announcement that China will resume issuing nearly all types of visas for foreigners from tomorrow is positive for Australian businesses whose executives would like to travel to here to visit their China-based teams, customers and suppliers and to explore new business opportunities in the mainland market.”
Noah Fraser, managing director and chief representative of the Canada China Business Council in China said “Canadian executives, investors and entrepreneurs welcome the news of the updated visa policy - there are thousands of business visas issued to Canadian executives pre-pandemic that are still within their validity period. New visa issuance is a time-consuming burden and this return to the previous rules will encourage a resumption in travel.”
The Al Jazeera Reports: China says it will start issuing all categories of visas to foreigners from Wednesday, lifting cross-border control measures it imposed three years ago at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. China stopped issuing visas to foreigners, and passports to its people, in early 2020 as the disease ravaged the central city of Wuhan. The resumption of visa services removes the last of the cross-border control measures introduced because of the virus. Areas in China that required no visas before the pandemic will revert to visa-free entry, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday. This will include the southern tourist island of Hainan and cruise ships passing through Shanghai port. Visa-free entry to the southern manufacturing hub of Guangdong for foreigners from Hong Kong and Macau will also start again. The ministry also said foreigners holding visas issued before March 28, 2020, that are still within their validity dates would also be able to enter China. Before the pandemic, China was the world’s largest market for outbound travel, having gone from 4.5 million travellers in 2000 to 150 million in 2018, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization.
The Spokesperson of the British Chamber of Commerce in China said, “This announcement is one of the final steps in restoring international travel and reconnecting China with the world. International talent in China will no doubt take comfort in the fact that they can more easily reunite with friends and family outside of China. We hope that these further steps will boost international interest in engaging with China and ultimately result in an increase in visitors to the country”.
The move shows China wants greater economic engagement with the outside world and free movement would provide stimulus for its economy hard hit by its zero covid policy.
Honduras to cut ties with Taiwan in tilt toward China
Honduras to cut its ties with d Taiwan and establish formal l ties with China in the latest diplomatic tussle between Taiwan and China.
The Nikkei Asia Reports: Honduras will seek to establish formal diplomatic relations with China, the country's president said Tuesday, in a move that would effectively end its official relationship with Taiwan. Honduran President Xiomara Castro announced on Twitter that she had instructed her foreign minister to begin the process of recognizing China, following up on a campaign pledge she made in 2021. In her tweet, Castro said the move is intended to "fulfill the government plan and expand borders. “Beijing claims Taiwan - an island democracy of 24 million people that have never been controlled by Communist China - as its own territory. China also doesn't allow countries with which it has official diplomatic relations to maintain formal ties with Taiwan. If formalized, the decision would leave Taiwan's government with 13 formal diplomatic partners.
Wang Wenbin Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said “China is willing to develop friendly relations with other countries, including Honduras, on the basis of the one-China principle. We welcome the relevant statement from the Honduran side. The fact that 181 countries have established diplomatic relations with China based on the one-China principle shows it is the correct choice consistent with the times.”
While Taiwan’s foreign ministry spokesperson said, “Taiwan is a sincere and reliable ally. Our country has always assisted Honduras in its national development to the best of our capabilities. China’s only goal in developing relations with Honduras is to shrink our country’s international space, it has no sincere intentions to cooperate for the good of the Honduran people.”
Ma Jianying, an associate professor at Shandong Normal University said “In addition to military and anti-independence efforts, the move could be a diplomatic push to minimize Taiwan’s international status. With Beijing’s growing influence in the world, including in Latin America, when choosing between Taiwan and mainland China, they would naturally choose to build ties with mainland China. The new left-wing governments in Central and South America favoured diplomatic ties with Beijing. It was “highly possible” for more countries to pursue ties with Beijing as it was “using all means” to minimize international ties with Taiwan amid growing cross-strait tensions”.
The Deccan Herald Reports: A high-ranking envoy of President Joe Biden will travel to Panama and Honduras this month, the US Department of State said on Thursday, days after Taiwan ally Honduras said it would establish formal diplomatic ties with China. Chris Dodd, the US special presidential adviser for the Americas, will visit the two Central American countries from March 17 to March 21, the department said in a statement.
In addition, it reports that in recent years, the United States has focused on migration and security challenges stemming from Central America, as well as trade and development priorities, but it has also been concerned about Chinese efforts to expand its influence in the region. Dodd, a former lawmaker, will meet Honduran officials and private-sector representatives, officials and finance leaders in Panama, as well as attend an annual conference of the Inter-American Development Bank.
Honduras's tilt toward China can be seen in the context of China's relentless machinations to globally isolate Taiwan.
Section E: Military Developments in China
This section is brought to you by Anushka Saxena
This week, the following developments concerning the Chinese military and police force, have grabbed my attention :
On 13 March 2023, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released its Fact Sheet on ‘Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2022’, which revealed interesting information about China’s dealings in arms for the five-year period between 2018 and 2022.
To begin with, China is the only country that overlaps between the world’s five biggest exporters and importers of arms as of 2022. As per the report, the five largest arms exporters in the world from 2018 to 2022 are the US, Russia, France, China and Germany, accounting for 76 per cent of the total global arms exports. The five largest arms importers in that period are India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Australia and China, accounting for 36 per cent of total global arms imports.
China’s global share of exports of major arms in 2018–22 is 5.2 per cent, and there has been a 23 per cent decline in the volume of exports of major arms by in 2018-2022 as compared to the 2013–17 period.
SCMP reports: A drop in China’s arms exports could signal military stockpiling in the country amid surging geopolitical tensions and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to analysts.
The decline in arms exports from China could be a sign that Beijing was focusing more on domestic needs as geopolitical tensions rose, said Ni Lexiong, a professor at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.
This is an ironic indication given that as per China’s Global Security Initiative, expansive focus is to be given to military equipment and technology transfer to developing countries to maintain “world peace and security.”
However, diplomatic outreach by China, especially in African and Latin American countries, is still focused around expansion of arms sales. For example:
Manoj Kewalramani, in his Discussion Document for Takshashila on GSI, writes: “Significantly, [Ambassador] Zhou’s [Pingjian] description of the ambit of GSI [in Kenya] included China’s mediation efforts in the Horn of Africa and its commitment to ‘undertake 10 peace and security projects for Africa, continue to deliver military assistance to the AU, support African countries’ efforts to independently maintain regional security and fight terrorism, and conduct joint exercises and on-site training between Chinese and African peacekeeping troops and cooperation on small arms and light weapons control’.”
Additionally, “Writing for Somali media, ambassador Fei Shengchao talked about China’s provision of COVID-19-related supplies, military vehicles and equipment, food and humanitarian aid to the country.”
On 14 March 2023, Argentine Ambassador to China Sabino Vaca Narvaja held a work meeting with Argentine Defense Minister Jorge Taiana and his team in Buenos Aires to promote cooperation with China in the field of national defense. In the aftermath of the meeting, as Global Times reports, “the Argentine Embassy in China said [on Tuesday] that the South American country is considering procuring the JF-17 aircraft, with Chinese analysts saying [on Wednesday] that the fighter jet jointly developed by China and Pakistan is the best choice for Argentina in terms of performance and availability.”
Fu Qianshao, a Chinese military aviation expert, told the Global Times on 15 March that Argentina has long been seeking to procure new fighter jets to replace its aging and shrinking warplane fleet, but because of the issue of the Malvinas Islands, the UK has blocked Argentina's aircraft procurement attempts on the international market. As a consequence, the Argentina-China deal on JF-17s was halted last year, and is now being reportedly revived.
The SIPRI report also highlights that “The main [arms] suppliers to Africa in 2018–22 were Russia, accounting for 40 per cent of African imports of major arms, the USA (16 per cent), China (9.8 per cent) and France (7.6 per cent).” .
It should also be noted that as compared to the 2013-2017 period, Russia has overtaken China as the main arms supplier to Sub-Saharan Africa in the 2018-2022 period. Russia’s share of arms imports to sub-Saharan Africa rose from 21 per cent in 2013–17 to 26 per cent in 2018–22, while China’s fell from 29 per cent to 18 per cent. Hence, because China is not yet a competition to Russian or even American arms exports to the region, through the GSI, China is attempting to re-gain traction.
Graph prepared by Anushka Saxena
Next, the SIPRI report highlights that even though in 2018-2022 period, 23 per cent of Russia’s arms exports went to China alone, the 2020-2022 period witnessed a much lower volume of such exports than the 2018-2020 period, indicating that China is actively moving away from Russian defence equipment imports. At the same time, as discussed in light of the increased defence budget for 2023 and a focus on innovation and high-quality development in our previous edition, China is ramping up domestic production of advanced major arms.
54 per cent of China’s own arms exports in the 2018-2022 period went to Pakistan. This means that China supplied over three quarters (77 per cent) of Pakistan’s arms imports in 2018–22.
According to SIPRI analyst Siemon Wezeman, “Pakistan also has a wish list it expects China to look into: the 5th generation combat aircraft, long-range air-defence missile systems and major warships, like the ‘Type-054s or something else from the quite large Chinese catalogue of warships’.”
He further says: “Our assessment that this picture [China being Pak’s largest arms supplier] is not going to change, mainly since the US has ‘given up’ on Pakistan and turned more to India as it primary partner in region, aside from the end of US operations in Afghanistan in 2021 which ended the need to keep Pakistan as some kind of ally.”
Other indicators of relevance from the SIPRI arms sales trends pertaining to China include:
The vast majority of Chinese arms imports (83 per cent) came from Russia. Russian deliveries in the last three years of the period (2020–22) consisted almost entirely of helicopters and engines for aircraft, which are the last few types of major arms that China has had difficulties in developing.
Both Japan (+171 per cent) and South Korea (+61 per cent) increased their arms imports between 2013–17 and 2018–22. Japan and South Korea are expanding their military capabilities in a move that is largely driven by tensions with North Korea and, in the case of Japan, with China.
Australia, by far the largest arms importer in Oceania, is another key ally of the USA and is also building up its long-range strike capabilities based on a perceived heightened threat from China.
Although most South East Asian states continued to be affected by tensions in the South China Sea, mainly with China, arms imports by states in the subregion fell by 42 per cent between 2013–17 and 18–22.
The next few developments of significance come from domestic politics:
CNN reported: China's leader Xi Jinping on Monday [13 March] vowed to bolster national security and build the military into a "great wall of steel," in the first speech of his precedent-breaking third term as president.
The full context of the statement from Xi’s full speech at the closing meeting of the 14th NPC is as follows: “We need to better coordinate development and security. Security is the foundation of development and stability is the prerequisite for prosperity. We must resolutely pursue a holistic approach to national security, improve the national security system, strengthen our capacity for safeguarding national security, enhance public security governance, and improve the social governance system. With this new security architecture, we will be able to better safeguard China's new pattern of development. We should comprehensively promote the modernization of our national defense and our armed forces, and build the people's military into a great wall of steel that can effectively safeguard our nation's sovereignty, security and the interests of our development.”
It lays out an ambitious balancing agenda, the rationale for which, as Xi articulated, is that “Security is the bedrock of development, while stability is a prerequisite for prosperity.”
Then, Manoj Kewalramani writes in his Tracking People’s Daily for 16 March:
There’s a report on a notice by the General Office of the Central Military Commission, requiring the PLA and PAP to study the spirit of the first meeting of the 14th NPC and study and implement Chairman Xi’s important speeches.
Among other things, the notice calls on everyone to understand that “Xi’s unanimous election as the country’s president and the chairman of the Central Military Commission is as per the aspiration of the Party, the hope of the people and people’s expectations.”
It also calls on the PLA and PAP to “understand the decisive significance of the Two Establishment more deeply, and further strengthen the trust and support for the Party's core, the people’s leader and the commander of the armed forces.”
Next, Some reportage on China’s aggressive postures on the high seas:
Firstly, like any usual day in the East China Sea, China’s dispute with Japan over Japanese-controlled islands is heating up again, with both sides accusing the other of infringing on their maritime territory.
Republic reported: The Japanese Coast Guard on 17 March claimed in a statement that at least two Chinese ships intruded into its territorial waters near the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea known as Diaoyudao Islands China. The Chinese vessels encroached on the Japanese waters as they followed two Japanese fishing boats patrolling the region's resources. People's Liberation Army Navy [PLAN] ships and two other Chinese vessels entered the territorial waters off Taisho Island between 4:20 a.m. and 4:50 a.m. on Friday, said the Japanese Coast Guard in a statement.
China says the islands belong to it and refuses to recognize Japan’s claim to the uninhabited chain of islands. Taiwan also claims the islands, which it calls the Diaoyutais (้ฃ้ญๅฐๅๅถผ). They are known as the Senkakus in Japanese and Diaoyu in China. Taipei has signed agreements with Japan for its fishers to access the waters around the islands.
In relatively more unusual news, on 16 March, Australian airline Qantas warned its group aircraft of Chinese military electronic interference in the Western Pacific and the South China Sea.
The following is Qantas’s statement on the matter:
Not only were reported Chinese military ships using Very-High Frequence (VHF) electronic/ communications interference in the region, there was also GPS jamming detected from warships “off of the coast of north west shelf of Australia,” with the source unidentified.
EurAsian Times reports: The updated guideline advised pilots to stay on course if they encountered unauthorized VHF communications or interference that claimed to be coming from the Chinese military. It added: “China’s foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on March 14 that the most recent joint declaration from the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia shows that the three nations entirely disregard the international communities’ concerns to pursue their geopolitical goals and are progressing down a risky path.”
Hence, this adventurism by the PLAN may be deemed as a response to the enhancement of Australia-UK-US ties as per recent announcements under the AUKUS defence partnership.
A few weeks ago, on 2 March, the International Federation of Air Line Pilots Associations (IFALPA) had also issued a similar statement regarding “Communication Interference by Military Warships in the Pacific region.”
There was no mention of the Chinese military in particular here.
This deployment of electronic warfare through tools such as GPS jamming, communications interference and spoofing, is something various brigades of the Chinese PLA are already readily training in. It marks a sophistication in the use of dual-use technologies across conventional areas of contention and conflict.
Finally, Some bits on China’s military exercises abroad this week:
The Chinese Ministry of National Defence informed: “According to the consensus of the militaries of China, Iran, Russia and other countries, from March 15 to 19, the navies of China, Iran, Russia and other countries will hold the "Security Bond-2023" maritime joint military exercise in the Gulf of Oman. The "Security Bond-2023" maritime joint exercise was developed from the China-Iran-Russia joint maritime exercise held twice in 2019 and 2022.”
It added: “This exercise will help deepen the practical cooperation between the navies of the participating countries, further demonstrate the willingness and ability to jointly maintain maritime security and actively build a community of shared future for the sea, and inject positive energy into regional peace and stability,” without giving full details of what is the complete list of “participating countries” involved.
China sent the guided-missile destroyer Nanning to participate in the exercise, mainly participating in air search, sea rescue, and sea sorting.
Al Jazeera reports: US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the White House was not concerned by the joint training exercise, as it was not the first time that the Russians and Chinese trained together. “We’re going to watch it, we’ll monitor it, obviously, to make sure that there’s no threat resulting from this training exercise to our national security interests or those of our allies and partners in the region,” Kirby said on CNN.
Next, on 15 March, the C-MOD announced the “Golden Dragon-2023” exercise between China and Cambodia would take place from late March to early April, and a PLA group would set sail for the event on the Jinggangshan, a Type 071 amphibious landing ship, from a port in Guangdong province.
That same day, more than 200 troops from the Army, the Navy and the Joint Logistic Support Force of the PLA Southern Theater Command held a departure ceremony on Wednesday in Zhanjiang, South China's Guangdong Province.
The subject of the exercise is supposedly operations for the security of important events and humanitarian aid.
No comments:
Post a Comment