Stavros Atlamazoglou
It has been 390 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Monday, the Russian forces continue to push hard in the Donbas but without having achieved any major operational breakthroughs.
The Russian large-scale offensive operation in the area is likely reaching its culmination point.
An offensive without much success
Over the weekend, the Ukrainian military conducted a small counterattack to the southwest of Bakhmut, pushing the Russian forces back and liberating some territory. Although a localized action, the Ukrainian counteroffensive operation shows that the Russian forces might be overstretched and vulnerable to counterattacks.
Indeed, the Russian offensive might be reaching its culmination point.
“The tempo of Russian offensive operations across the theater has slowed in recent weeks, suggesting that the Russian spring offensive in Donbas may be nearing culmination. Ukrainian officials have indicated that significant Russian losses near Vuhledar are severely inhibiting Russian forces’ capacity to conduct further offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational update on the war.
The situation in the Donbas. (ISW)
In the east, the Russian forces continued with their localized offensive operation along the Svatove-Kreminna line of contact but without much progress. The wooded terrain is preventing mobile mechanized warfare and favors the defender.
In the south, the situation remains the same for yet another day. The Russian forces continue to work on their fortifications in anticipation of a large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russian casualties
Every day, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is providing an update on its claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.
However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,800 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 8,300 weapon systems of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.
The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.
A Ukrainian T-64 tank during a training exercise. (DVIDS)In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost way more than 100,000 troops so far in the war. But U.S. officials revised this assessment in February. According to U.S. intelligence, Russia has lost almost 200,000 troops killed or wounded in the conflict so far.
Yet, proper casualty figures are still hard to compute and verify given the fog and friction of war.
As of Monday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:165,610 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
6,869 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
5,416 vehicles and fuel tanks
3,537 tanks
2,577 artillery pieces
2,160 tactical unmanned aerial systems
907 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
507 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
305 fighter, attack, and transport jets
290 attack and transport helicopters
270 air defense systems
265 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
18 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems
On Monday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and along the Kreminna-Svatove line in the east.
The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.
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