KYLE MIZOKAMI
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reported this weekend that China could be on the verge of providing “lethal” support to Russia. In comments to CBS, Blinken said that such aid would cause a “very serious problem” between the U.S. and China. If China provided arms, it would still not overcome serious problems in the Russian military, and Beijing would directly position itself as an adversary of the West.
“Lethal Support”
Secretary Blinken, appearing on Face the Nation, charged that China has already provided “non-lethal support” to Russia for use in Ukraine. The aid was provided by Chinese companies, but as Blinken noted, “there’s really no distinction between private companies and the state.”
Blinken also stated, “the concern that we have now is based on information we have that they’re considering providing lethal support.”
In the year since Russia has invaded Ukraine, Ukraine has received approximately $60 billion in military aid from the United States and other donor countries, more than ten times the country’s 2021 defense budget. Meanwhile the invading state, Russia, has not received any aid and has been forced to buy munitions, particularly artillery shells and drones, from Iran and North Korea.
For Russia, buying weapons from Iran or North Korea is a sign of desperation. Neither are known for producing high-tech, desirable military equipment, they are simply the only countries willing to antagonize the West by providing weapons. But China is known for producing high-tech equipment, and if it intends to supply Russia with arms, that could be a problem.
An Iraqi man in military outfit inspects the launcher of the Chinese-made Red Arrow-12 anti-tank missile during the Iraq Defence Exhibition at the Baghdad International Fair Ground, April 2021.picture alliance//Getty Images
The Arsenal of Authoritarianism
China’s arms industry has exploded over the past 30 years, both in scope and technological mastery. In 1993, China could at best build a fighter jet that was 20 years behind Western aircraft. Thirty years later, it is building several types of fighter jets, including the J-10, J-16, and J-20, the last one a fifth-generation fighter with capabilities matched only by the United States and Russia. China is also producing tanks, field artillery, drones, frigates, destroyers, and even aircraft carriers. Some of the equipment, such as aircraft carriers, are the first of their kind built in China.
China has the capacity to arm Russia, and a lot of the equipment it produces would prove useful to Russia. China’s Hong Jian-12, or Red Arrow-12, is a fire-and-forget, top attack anti-tank missile in the same class as the American Javelin. Javelin has helped decimate Russia’s tank fleet, responsible for many of 1,100 main battle tanks destroyed or damaged over the course of the war. China’s AH-4 lightweight towed howitzer is a rough equivalent to the American M777 howitzer provided to Ukraine. A truck-mounted howitzer, the SH-15, is similar to the French CAESAR or Swedish Archer self-propelled howitzers, both of which have been donated to Ukrainian forces.
China could act as a counterweight to the U.S. and Ukraine’s other military backers, a diverse bunch that ranges from Canada to Morocco. The two share a border, and aid could easily be funneled from one country to the next. Furthermore, much of the Sino-Russian border is remote and untraveled, making arms transfers difficult to detect.
But just like there’s a limit to what the West will provide Ukraine, there’s a limit to what China will likely provide—and what Russia would accept. Russia might accept handheld anti-tank weapons and artillery, but as a country that prides itself as a tank and fighter jet producing nation, it probably would be unable to accept tanks like China’s Type 99 main battle tank or the J-10 multi-role fighter. This could leave gaping holes in Russia’s capabilities, holes that will have a major effect on the battlefield.
A destroyed Russian tank on a road near village of Davydiv Brid, Kherson region, southern Ukraine. Even if supplied with new Chinese weapons, the conditions that caused the Russian Army to fail in Ukraine would still exist.OLEKSANDR GIMANOV//Getty Images
But, Would Any of It Help?
There’s also one big, insurmountable problem for China: Russia has already lost the war. From the outset of the war, Ukraine has grown stronger, due to the strength of its national resolve, skillfulness of its troops, and military aid from the West. At the same time, Russia has grown weaker, losing large numbers of first-line equipment and trained personnel. After one year of war, an increasingly weak Russia occupies a mere 15 percent of Ukraine. Even new Chinese weapons won’t paper over the corruption, poor leadership, abysmal training, and bad morale that got Russia into this mess. Russian President Vladimir Putin simply refuses to accept defeat.
China has been on a 30-year rip, expanding its armed forces, economic wealth, and global political power to previously unseen levels. It makes little sense to jeopardize those gains and antagonize the West by arming Russia in a war Moscow cannot win, for no tangible gain.
So, will China help Russia? One thing is clear: China didn’t get where it is today by backing losers.
No comments:
Post a Comment