Mike Brest
The Afghanistan branch of the Islamic State, Islamic State Khorasan ( ISIS-K ), will have the ability to launch attacks against United States interests outside of Afghanistan in less than six months, according to the top defense official in the region.
General Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command , told lawmakers on the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday that it's their assessment that ISIS-K would be able to target U.S. interests, including possibly against the homeland, without much warning in a matter of months.
"It is my commanders' estimate that they can do an external operation against U.S. or Western interests abroad in under six months with little to no warning," he explained, later specifying that this includes Europe and Asia, though he deferred the opportunity to provide more details until the classified briefing, which will take place after the public hearing. "It is much harder for them to be able to do that against the homeland."
When pressed by a lawmaker, Kurilla said, "It's hard to put a timeline on" how long it would take ISIS-K to carry out an attack, "but again, I assess that they could in as little as six months with little to no warning."
Kurilla's assessment comes about a week after the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released its report on worldwide threats, which noted that ISIS-K “almost certainly retains the intent to conduct operations in the West and will continue efforts to attack outside of Afghanistan,” while it will “maintain its campaign against the Taliban and religious minorities.”
ISIS-K has had formidable conditions for the group to grow since the U.S. military withdrew in August 2021 with the Taliban in control. But, ISIS-K and the Taliban are at odds.
The Islamic State affiliate is "under attack from the Taliban," Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier told the Senate Intelligence Committee last week.
Since leaving, the U.S. relies on its over-the-horizon capabilities, which is its ability to launch strikes from afar, though it's difficult given the need for real-time accurate on-the-ground intelligence.
"It is difficult right now, as I said in my confirmation hearing. It's difficult but not impossible," Kurilla added. "One of the things that we are trying to do is increase our intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance over that. We're putting investment into long-duration high-altitude, alternative airborne ISR that can go up for days and weeks."
Additionally, they are "increasing our other intelligence efforts to get penetration into the networks that we want," he noted.
In the roughly eighteen months since leaving, the U.S. has conducted one such strike, in July 2022, that targeted Ayman Al Zawahiri , the successor of Osama bin Laden in al-Qaeda’s leadership, though Kurilla said they have conducted two non-kinetic counterterrorism events that have taken place but deferred to the classified session.
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