Michael Allen
The fate of the Russian-seized Ukrainian territory of Crimea may soon become a point of divergence between Ukraine and its Western allies. Ukraine’s November recapture of the southern territory of Kherson puts Ukraine within range—both in terms of geography and momentum—of the strategic pathways into Crimea, posing a dilemma for Western policymakers. While Ukraine still has battles to fight, the West may soon have to decide whether it would support a coming Ukrainian assault on Crimea, or insist Ukraine count its blessings and settle for the return of only the territory Russia has captured since its invasion of February 2022.
For the Ukrainians, the answer is obvious. Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, belongs to Ukraine. For U.S. strategists, however, allowing Russia to keep Crimea could be the face-saver Putin needs to agree to ending the war. Others worry that doing so will set a dangerous precedent and that rewarding Russia’s aggression will only make future hostilities more likely.
Of course, the desires of the people living in Crimea matter, too. But it is difficult to accurately discern what their preferences might be. A 2014 referendum on the topic was widely considered a sham, not unlike those recently staged in Russian-held Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. This mirage of public opinion is even less reliable considering Russian President Vladimir Putin’s subsequent efforts to reshape the population of the peninsula through forced deportations, the persecution of native Tatars, and the imprisonment of political activists.
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