Michael Mayer
Technological change influences military operations. This represents a significant factor in the outcome of military conflicts. State actors therefore invest substantial resources to develop emerging and potentially disruptive technologies (EDT) for military purposes and create operational concepts to exploit these new opportunities. The concepts currently being considered prioritize advanced technologies and network-based solutions that integrate military systems on the battlefield together with AI-assisted data analysis. Many of these ideas have existed since at least the 1990s. The technology now appears mature enough to begin implementing concepts that for decades have been «just around the corner». Understanding the implications of these trends requires envisioning the types of military systems that might be developed with emerging technologies. This report combines an empirical study of the force structures and defense innovation ecosystems of Russia, China, and the United States together with an analysis of these EDT trends to arrive at a notional future force structure for each state. Many states will have some level of access to most of the relevant technologies, but there are likely to be significant variation in each state's resulting force structure – which can be defined as the combination of elements that produce or sustain combat power (e.g. aircraft, surface vessels, armored vehicles, satellites, or weapons systems).
A thorough analysis of Russian, Chinese, and American defense policies revealed variations in the composition of (and the modernization needs within) their current force structures, dissimilarly structured defense industries and defense budgets, inequalities in access to militarily relevant technical knowledge, variations in EDT prioritization, and differences in operational concepts. The report then outlines how basic combat functions such as mobility, surveillance, communication or fires might be affected by technology over the next three decades. In addition to incremental improvements, some technologies have the potential to create disruptive effects to these functions, in particular autonomous systems, quantum computing, network-based communication and data-sharing solutions, brain-computer interfaces, and manipulation of the electromagnetic spectrum. Combining these assumptions about the future development of EDTs with the current force structures and defense ecosystem idiosyncrasies of Russia, China and the United States allows us to derive a notional future force structures for each of these states. Such developments can pose challenges as well as opportunities for the Norwegian Armed Forces. Nevertheless, some feasible measures can be taken to create opportunities and minimize the risks – many of which are already underway in some form.
Investments can be made to expand and secure digital ICT infrastructure regardless of the exact future force structure composition. Conceptual and technical work to ensure interoperability with NATO allies is another realistic and crucial measure to ensure effective operations in the future. Finally, current and future acquisition projects should emphasize flexibility and "future-proofing" among military systems. Even if the future does not evolve in the manner described in this report, adaptability and flexibility will be useful features for the future that eventually emerges. The future remains unknown, but actively considering potential outcomes such as those offered in this report can contribute to a better prepared, flexible and robust defense policy.
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