Simona R. Soare, Pavneet Singh
This report investigates the growing role of defence software and AI/ML (machine learning) in military power now and in the medium term. It focuses on three goals: to define software-defined defence. The paper considers software-defined defence to be a fundamental architectural, organisational and operational principle of modern military operations. Software-defined defence entails a new logic for capability development which disaggregates sensors from effectors, software from hardware, and data from specific applications, while connecting them in data-centric, multi-modal, multi-domain, adaptative battle networks;
to assess ongoing practices and processes in the development of defence software and AI/ML, and identify recurring challenges;
to explore and assess the ongoing efforts towards software-defined defence in five country case studies – China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States – and how Sino-American strategic competition is shaping them.
Software-defined defence is based on four foundations. Firstly, a changing relationship between military software and hardware, in which technological progress is faster in software than in hardware, and software-defined functionality of systems increasingly determines operational advantage in information superiority. Secondly, software-defined defence requires a data-centric approach to developing new capabilities and systems-of-systems. Thirdly, it takes a human-centric approach to designing API-enabled end-to-end electronic workflows that enhance human capacity and safety. Finally, software-defined defence regards advanced defence software and AI/ML as a core weapon capability and therefore places emphasis on the software component in early system design, as well as in subsequent upgrades.
The processes used in the development and deployment of advanced defence software and AI/ML remain embedded in decades-old, hardware-driven waterfall capability-development models. Efforts to use agile, iterative and DevSecOps frameworks are incipient across all five countries analysed. However, ongoing initiatives are slow and cumbersome, the causes of which are architectural, organisational and operational. Most advanced defence software is embedded in bespoke hardware, which requires modifications to add new software functionality and improve performance, and defence industries lack enabling digital infrastructure and sufficiently skilled operators. Examples of core operating systems for capability families are slowly beginning to emerge in France, the UK and the US. But more work is needed to move towards a defence-as-a-platform and software-as-a-service-approach.
As Sino-American strategic competition intensifies, with the integration of advanced technologies like AI/ML at its core, China’s investment in software-defined defence will narrow the West’s military-power advantage. The US is racing to meet this threat and is consistently attempting to accelerate the safe and responsible integration of defence software and AI/ML into its defence capabilities. Similar efforts are only incipient and at smaller scale in France, Germany and the UK. A transatlantic software-defined defence gap has already emerged – one which could still be bridged if Europeans choose to embrace defence software and the digitalisation of defence.
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