Peter Suciu
As the war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending and is set to enter its 11th month, there are indications that Kyiv will become increasingly emboldened in taking the fight to Russia.
Last year, Ukrainian forces launched a number of raids against the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, using a variety of aerial and sea-skimming drones.
In addition, a number of Soviet-designed Cold War-era reconnaissance drones were employed in strikes against Russian Aerospace Force bases deep within Russia.
According to Ukraine’s military intelligence head, Kyrylo Budanov, the Kremlin should expect similar attacks in 2023.
Though the actual Kremlin complex in the capital city of Moscow might not actually be targeted, Russian military facilities throughout the country could come under attack, the intelligence chief told ABC News this week without specifically saying that Kyiv would be behind such strikes.
Recent Attacks
Ukraine didn’t claim responsibility for the December 26 attack on Russia’s Engels Air Force Base, located some 800 miles from the frontlines. However, Budanov said he was “glad to see it” targeted, and suggested that attacks would come “deeper and deeper” inside of Russia.
Western governments have cautioned Ukraine on targeting Russian territory over concerns that such attacks could escalate the conflict. The Biden Administration has also limited the types of weapons that have been supplied to Ukraine, refusing to send any weapons that could have the potential of being used against facilities within Russia.
Crimea Fair Game for Ukraine?
Though Kyiv has been cautious in claiming responsibility for attacks in Russia, Budanov said, “Crimea is Ukrainian territory, we can use any weapon on our territory.”
In fact, explosions were reported on Wednesday in the vicinity of Russia’s Belbek military airfield outside of Sevastopol. The base is home to the Russian Aerospace Force’s 38th Fighter Aviation Regiment, which operates the Sukhoi Su-27 and Sukhoi Su-30 combat aircraft.
Russian officials claimed on the Telegram social media service that two drones had been shot down by Russian forces. The base, which is located adjacent to the civilian airport, was previously targeted in a drone attack last August. It is unclear if any aircraft were damaged in Wednesday’s attack.
Campaign in Crimea Next for Ukraine?
It was just last month that a Biden Administration official told members of the United States Congress that Ukraine now has the military capability to take back Crimea.
While no offense is imminent, there have been concerns in Washington that any large-scale attack on the peninsula could push Russian President Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons.
Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, after a so-called referendum that Ukraine and the West never recognized. In October, the Kerch Bridge – which Putin has seen as a symbol of pride – linking the Russian mainland to Crimea was partially destroyed in an attack that Moscow deemed an act of terror. As an important lifeline for Russia, efforts are now underway to repair it. In December, Putin visited the bridge and even drove his car across a section to check on the progress.
Moscow announced plans to complete the repairs by July 1, 2023. The 11-mile Kerch Bridge is the longest in Europe and it carries both road and rail traffic.
It would certainly make an inviting target, much like many of Russia’s air and naval bases. It is now likely a matter of when, not if, such strikes could occur.
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