Promise of armour and combined-arms training to Ukraine point to new phase in Russia war

Richard Thomas

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The decision by the US, French, and German governments to supply the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), AMX 10RC wheel armoured reconnaissance vehicle, and Marder IFV respectively to Ukraine point towards Kyiv’s war against Russia moving towards a new phase in the first half of 2023, with a greater emphasis on mobile protected firepower.

That Ukraine is able to utilise the resources and financial support of NATO members and replenish or renew its stocks of munitions, small arms, artillery, and armour, runs in stark contrast to the difficulties Russia is facing in its own efforts. Moscow appears to be limited to systems already in reserve, of which it has significant but ageing stock, and niche support from countries such as Iran for loitering munitions.

Reports persist that Russia is attempting to resupply through North Korea, and other allies such as Syria, although little hard data is available to verify such claims. The US Pentagon press secretary Brig Gen Pat Ryder, speaking during a media briefing on 5 January to confirm the inclusion of Bradley in the latest US support package, stated that the US had “seen Russia’s intent to acquire artillery and ammo” from Pyongyang, although little in the way of recent developments.

Battlefield losses

As the two sides near the unwanted one-year anniversary since the initiation of large-scale combat operations in Ukraine on 24 February last year, both will have felt the impact of battlefield attrition over the past 10 months.

GlobalData analysis of open-source information compiled by Oryx indicates that Russian losses of IFVs up to 21 December 2022 amounted to 1,869 platforms, across various types. In contrast, Ukraine had lost 418 IFV in the same reporting period. A similar picture can be painted with tanks losses, with Russia and Ukraine suffering 1,585 and 426 battlefield losses respectively. Armoured fighting vehicle losses for the two sides are somewhat closer in terms of ratios, although still heavily in favour of Ukraine with 238 destroyed compared to 744 for Russia.