Stephen M. Walt
Before I got too far into 2023, I decided to look back to see if 2022 had gone according to my expectations. In my last column of 2021, I described “Biden’s 2022 Foreign-Policy To-Do List.” What did I get right, what did I get wrong, and how well did the Biden administration perform?
1. China and Taiwan. My first prediction—that “we won’t see a serious crisis or military confrontation over Taiwan in 2022”—was correct. Tensions rose slightly in response to outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s ill-advised visit there in August, but cooler heads prevailed and both Beijing and Washington subsequently decided to lower the temperature for the moment. This decision isn’t surprising, as both Beijing and Washington have pretty full plates. Thus far, at least, the Biden administration seems to be getting away with its undeclared economic war on China, but whether its campaign will succeed remains to be seen. U.S. allies in Asia (and Europe) aren’t happy with export controls on advanced chip technology or the protectionist elements of the administration’s broader economic program, and that could be an opportunity for China. Looking ahead, I’m still confident that peace will prevail in East Asia in 2023.
2. Ukraine. I got this one wrong, but only in part. Writing in late December 2021, I predicted Russia would not invade. I wasn’t 100 percent certain, however, and said that if Moscow did invade, I expected it to launch a “limited aims” incursion focused primarily on the Donbas, most likely leading to a “frozen conflict” similar to the situation in Georgia. Why did I think so? Because a limited campaign would be “less likely to provoke a strong and unified response from the West.” A limited incursion would also put President Joe Biden (and NATO) in a “no-win” situation, because there was “little appetite [in the U.S.] for a shooting war in an area far away from the United States and right next door to Russia.” I thought Russian President Vladimir Putin understood that a large-scale invasion would trigger fierce Ukrainian resistance and create a “costly running sore Moscow could ill afford.”
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