Indian Strategic Studies: 09/23/22

23 September 2022

India’s Membership In Shanghai Cooperation Organization Is A Geopolitical Anachronism – Analysis

Dr. Subhash Kapila

The recent Summit Meet of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SC0) at Samarkand in Uzbekistan once again brings into bold relief the incongruity of India’s continuance as member of the China-led and China-dominated SCO, which perceptionally going by its enlarged Islamic countries composition is reminiscent of a Sino-Islamic Bloc in confrontation with Western Civilisation as predicted by Samuel Huntington in his classic work ‘The Clash of Civilisations’.

China’s semi-official media organ commenting on the SCO Summit asserts that SCO is a “strategic move to break the United States containment of China” by China’s ‘Circle of Friends’ at SCO. Further, China maintained that SCO compliments China’s international stature and influence. Addedly, that United States continues to keep Russia under pressure in Europe while at the same time continuing to keep China under containment pressure.

Reading between the lines it should strike that SCO dominated and led by China with Russia in tow is nothing but a fig-leaf intended to shroud China’s and Russian core aims of forging a united front as counterweight to QUAD and United States bilateral Strategic Partnerships with Major Asian Powers like Japan and India and including Australia in the wider Indo Pacific expanse.

The Enduring Ideological Threat Of Al-Qaeda After Ayman Al-Zawahiri – Analysis

Mohamed Bin Ali and Ahmad Saiful Rijal Bin Hassan

The leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist group Ayman Al-Zawahiri was killed on July 31, 2022 by a drone strike launched by the United States. After the attack took place, President Joe Biden said on television that “justice has been served and this terrorist leader is gone”

The New York Times reported that the attack took place at a house owned by Sirajuddin Haqqani. He is the acting Interior Minister of Afghanistan and is the leader of the Haqqani network, a powerful faction within the Taliban which has ties with Al-Qaeda.

It turned out that this attack was a great blow in terms of leadership, morale and operational aspects for Al-Qaeda which was founded by Osama bin Laden two decades ago. But after the death of Al-Zawahiri, who will take over the leadership and will the ideology of Al-Qaeda fade away and will the threat of Al-Qaeda terrorism decline?

What Stopped Globalization?

PINELOPI KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG

NEW HAVEN – After decades of unprecedented openness, international economic relations have entered a new era, characterized by mistrust and division. Given the potential costs of this shift, it is worth retracing how we got here.

Following the end of the Cold War, globalization brought about a drastic reduction in extreme poverty, not least by enabling East Asian countries, including China, to achieve rapid growth and development. Living standards (as measured by income per capita) also improved globally.

Open trade and market-oriented policies were central to this progress. Trade with low-wage (at the time) countries – such as China, Mexico, South Korea, and Vietnam – kept goods prices and wages in advanced economies in check, benefiting both consumers in these countries and workers in the exporting economies.

Defense Department to Investigate Military-run Fake Social Media Accounts

Stephen Silver

The Department of Defense has vowed to launch a probe into military-run fake accounts on social media sites after such accounts were recently taken offline. That’s according to a Washington Post story published over the weekend.

The undersecretary of defense for policy, Colin Kahl, announced the probe and “instructed the military commands that engage in psychological operations online to provide a full accounting of their activities by next month.”

This was after concerns were raised that Pentagon agencies had engaged in “attempted manipulation of audiences overseas.”

“Our joint investigation found an interconnected web of accounts on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and five other social media platforms that used deceptive tactics to promote pro-Western narratives in the Middle East and Central Asia. The platforms’ datasets appear to cover a series of covert campaigns over a period of almost five years rather than one homogeneous operation,” the report said, citing data from a group of accounts removed from those social media sites in July and August 2022.

Xi Jinping Is Not Going Anywhere

Brian W. Cag

Xi Jinping, the leader of the Chinese Community Party (CCP) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), is facing a variety of challenges to his leadership. The Chinese economy is staring down its greatest crisis in decades, including a housing market overburdened by excess capacity, unprecedented debt levels causing a decline in overseas investment, and a banking sector shaken by the public’s uncertainty to protect its capital. Xi’s vertical consolidation of political power across all levels of the party and the state has drummed up discontent among the elite class, especially in the run-up to the 20th Party Congress. Senior party cadres have been strategically leaking their disapproval of Xi’s leadership in recent months and many are worried about Xi diminishing the already flailing concept of collective leadership. Security concerns also abound, as China is facing pushback from Western nations on its military’s encroachment in the South China Sea and Pacific nations. Export restrictions on China’s semiconductor sector and the gutting of collaborative relationships with Chinese defense industries have temporarily struck a blow to China’s desire to carry out its civil-military fusion policy. In spite of these challenges, however, there is no realistic elite power struggle nor any semblance of an organized political group within China that can seriously counter Xi’s consolidated rule.

Xi is laser-focused on moving forward with his ambitious economic agenda. Despite public discontent with the rollout of the CCP’s “common prosperity” campaign, Xi and senior cadres have quietly signaled a shift to scale back some of the drastic redistribution aspects of the party’s initiative. Covid-19 lockdowns have also caused great disruptions to business operations and the housing sector. In turn, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) recently announced rate cuts to spur growth while the rest of the world grapples with increasing rate hikes to counter inflation. As sanctions pummel the Russian economy and complicate trade deals across Eurasia, China’s yuan is becoming an attractive alternative for nations seeking to minimize their use of the U.S. dollar. Since the yuan does not operate on a free-floating currency system, the PBOC sets a central parity rate which allows the Chinese government to manipulate its value at will. China’s confidence in its currency is strong and recent reports have highlighted Russia and China’s decision to use local currencies for their energy trade. Although the yuan is still far behind the U.S. dollar in its global use, its lack of adoption as the premier reserve currency affords Beijing great flexibility to devalue the yuan in accordance with global economic challenges and any negative geopolitical developments.

How India Became a Global Energy Player

Gopi Krishna Bhamidipati Ariel Ahram

India would have seemed an unlikely power player in global energy markets until a year ago. India has long been among the world’s largest oil consumers. Since 2000, India’s oil consumption has more than doubled, reaching 4.8 million barrels per day (BPD) in 2021 and making it the third largest importer and consumer. The economic slowdowns associated with the Covid-19 pandemic stifled India’s energy use. As the road to recovery unfolds, India is poised to have the largest increase in global energy demand over the next two decades, according to the International Energy Agency. Still, India had traditionally played a passive role in global energy markets, a dutiful customer that prioritized diversity and stability over driving cutthroat deals.

India’s energy policy is based on the efficiency of energy usage. The Indian economy is characterized by low energy productivity caused by the misuse of energy resources and energy-intensive technologies. Commonly referred to as the “swing fuel,” oil accounted for only 27 percent of primary energy sources, whereas coal accounted for 57 percent and natural gas nearly 7 percent, according to the latest BP statistics.

Neuro-Cognitive Warfare: Inflicting Strategic Impact via Non-Kinetic Threat

R. McCreight

What is the strategic value of a covert technology that has consistently displayed a capability to disable and permanently impair basic thought, perception and inflict degrading effects on human neuro-cognitive motor skills? Is it significant but far less than strategic? Non-kinetic yet still strategic in impact? What if an adversary intent on harming US military and civilian leadership could unleash and deploy this technology without fear of detection? What if that adversary knew the US targets had no way to protect themselves from the insidious effects of this covert technology? This is neuro-cognitive warfare which has been taking place during the last decade and which allows an aggressor to attain a degree of strategic leverage and influence literally without firing a shot. US military experts in C4ISR, electronic warfare, Psychological Operations and medical science ought be aware of this and study it assiduously to gauge its genuine threat dynamics. Is that happening? The answer seems patently clear yet the issue has been subterranean in attention and falls regrettably below the threshold for assessing America’s strategic risk spectrum as it evaluates the next decade. Does this make sense in terms of emerging Joint All Domain C2 developing doctrine and technology? Likely not too many.

We do know that the US government has officially devoted serious high level attention to the issue based on recent statements and testimony by senior Biden administration officials [1][2]. What is far less clear is what they actually intend to do about it including how to characterize it, detect it and defend against it let alone the idea of devising effective neutralizing countermeasures. Now the threat issue has expanded beyond its origins several years ago and it manifests itself closer to home with reported instances occurring up until the present day.

China’s Military Exercises Indicate Beijing Is Not Yet Ready To Invade Taiwan

Julian Spencer-Churchill & Liu Zongzo

Mainland China is far from conducting the types and scale of exercises it will need to blockade, let alone invade, Taiwan. At best, China is currently able to attempt a re-run of the 1954 and 1958 Taiwan Straits Crises, consisting of an aerial, artillery, rocket bombardment and amphibious assault of Taiwanese possessions off the Chinese coast: Kinmen, Matsu, Pratas, possibly extended to Penghu and Itu Aba Island. Both of those crises ended in military exhaustion and concerns for U.S. escalation, including permanent deployments of U.S. troops in the then named Republic of China (ROC). It is well within China’s capability to seize these islands. However, Beijing is concerned that an attempted conquest of the coastal Taiwanese islands of Kinmen and Matsu will simply be reciprocated by a U.S. backed Taiwanese capture of Chinese Islands in the South China Sea. The U.S. Marine Corps has been reconfiguring its combat units to seize island promontories.

China’s most recent extensive maritime exercises around Taiwan, taking place on August 4-7th, were a response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s high-profile visit to Taiwan, and were in part political intimidation by a demonstration of capabilities, and cognitive warfare. However, the deployment was mainly a routinized sequence of small flotilla, single mixed-squadron, and marine battalion-sized training exercises meant to give experience to frontline naval platforms and air squadrons that would participate in a blockade or invasion of Taiwan.

Europe Is Losing the Energy WarHere’s how the continent can fight back.

Mark P. Mills

Wars are fought on many fronts. So far, Russian president Vladimir Putin is winning the energy war. High energy prices, triggered by supply disruptions, have neutered Western sanctions. Russia’s current account balance stands at record highs. Meantime, the same forces are de-industrializing Europe right before our eyes. Industry after industry is throttling back, shutting down, or considering doing so if the energy chaos continues. Britain is staring at the potential shutdown of 60 percent of its manufacturers. Germany and most of Europe are on the same track.

Discussions of how to rebuild Ukraine when the ground war eventually ends are prevalent, but the question of the decade will be how to rebuild Europe’s industrial infrastructure. Industrial facilities and supply chains that use and produce energy can’t easily be restarted once stopped. That’s one lesson, at least, that policymakers should have taken from the Covid lockdowns.

Europe is learning the importance of energy resilience and reliability and seeing just how pivotal energy-intensive industries are for an economy. With gas and electricity prices soaring by as much as 1,000 percent, the fuel bills to make steel, aluminum, glass, or fertilizer in Europe far exceed what the final products can be sold for—hence the closures. Those products are inputs to other domestic industries, from cars and beer to agriculture, that are scrambling for other sources or closing down themselves.

I Have Seen Iran’s Drones Up Close: They Could Help Russia Fight Ukraine

Cam McMillan

Many observers were quick to mock Russia’s acquisition of Iranian drones for use in Ukraine. Analysts consider it more evidence of Russian decline, which it is.

However, we cannot underestimate the capabilities of these platforms and the threat they present. As a C-RAM (counter rocket, artillery, mortar) battle captain in Iraq who was responsible for counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems, or C-UAS, I too scoffed at the idea that Iranian drones posed any threat to me, my soldiers, or the theater-level assets we were responsible for defending. It didn’t take long for us to realize that these drones were nothing to dismiss and posed a severe threat to our forces.

Iranian drones have regularly attacked American and coalition forces in the Middle East, many times slipping through formidable American defenses and striking targets on U.S. bases. Beyond American forces, Iranian drones have posed such a serious threat to Sunni Gulf states and to Israel that these states have formed an unlikely military partnership. That collaboration emerged after Iranian drones attacked forces and infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel. The drones have also been used to target individuals – a capability once almost exclusive to the U.S. – most notably in an assassination attempt against the Iraqi prime minister that did not fail by much. In the context of Ukraine, these platforms have already successfully attacked key Ukrainian forces and are likely an even greater threat than what American forces and partners have faced in the Middle East.

Ukraine and the Shifting Geopolitics of the Heartland

Alexander Brotman

As the Ukraine conflict has now passed the six-month mark, fears of a brutal war of attrition along an immovable front have now evolved into a series of successful counteroffensives by Ukrainian forces of towns held by Russia since the beginning of the war. It is now possible to imagine a Ukrainian victory sooner than many in the West had expected, and with immense geopolitical consequences for Europe and the wider world. As a frontier state, Ukraine may be guided by the hands of neighbouring powers, but its destiny is increasingly being shaped by those within its own borders. The possibility of a fully liberated Ukraine in charge of its strategic destiny calls for an assessment of Ukraine’s place in the history of geopolitical theory. Russia’s ability to manage relationships and project power across its sphere of influence in the heartland of Eurasia is waning. As such, over thirty years since its independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine’s fight marks a dividing line of the post-Soviet era in one of the most geopolitically significant regions of the globe.

Ukraine’s History in Geopolitical Perspective

The geographer and founder of modern geopolitics Halford Mackinder famously posited in his Heartland Theory that whoever ‘rules East Europe commands the Heartland; Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; Who rules the World-Island commands the World.’ Since Mackinder’s article was published in 1904, Eastern Europe has largely fallen under a Western orientation, with the notable exception of Belarus as a Eurasian-leaning Russian appendage, and Ukraine and Moldova progressing towards the West but still existing in a state of geopolitical limbo. Ukraine’s security guarantees are more iron-clad than Moldova’s, which remains at risk of Russian provocations in Transnistria, combined with steady support for the pro-Kremlin aligned Socialist Party of former President Igor Dodon.

Russian Options

George Friedman

Last week, I discussed the nature of tactical nuclear weapons. They are built for tactical effect, not strategic effect. Strategic nuclear weapons, such as the ones dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, can devastate a large area, with both the blast and the nuclear fallout. The blast area would be devastated, and the fallout would increase the lethality and carry it a significant distance downwind. However, it must be remembered that regardless of casualties, neither city was completely abandoned, and both were populated and functioning at a reasonable level about a year after the bombs were detonated. The power of tactical nuclear weapons (depending on the type) is less than 1 percent of the Hiroshima blast, and as important, they yield little nuclear fallout.

Tactical nuclear weapons can determine the outcome of a battle but not a war, and would not make the land unlivable. Therefore, Russia’s other nuclear option is strategic: to destroy Ukrainian cities with a Hiroshima-type weapon. This option has two weaknesses. The winds in Ukraine are variable and in eastern Ukraine, for example, blow to the northeast. A strategic nuclear detonation would send fallout blowing into Russia and in this example toward Voronezh, a strategic Russian city. Any use of a strategic nuclear weapon would likely affect Russian territory.

Who’s winning the war in Ukraine?

Shlomo Ben-Ami

Some view these companies as the ‘arsenal of democracy’, as US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt called the American industrial effort to support the Allies during the early days of World War II. And their role in helping Ukraine fend off Russian occupation is undeniable. But their profit motive and influence over American foreign policy threaten to turn the arsenal against democracy itself.

For years, the US arms industry—together with other major arms exporters such as Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and Israel—has reaped the benefits of protracted wars and long-term military alliances. American contractors, now in control of 39% of the global arms trade, began rearming Europe long before Russia invaded Ukraine. While arms exports declined by almost 5% globally between 2017 and 2021, Europe increased its rearmament commitments by 19%.

In the United States, defence contractors are among the biggest lobbyists in Washington. In late 2019, Transparency International described how ‘dark money’ groups persuade members of Congress to approve arms sales to repressive regimes. Even in the case of arms sales to Israel, the five biggest US weapons producers spend three to five times as much on lobbying Congress as Israel’s powerful lobby group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

Here’s what we know about the state of Russia’s military

Ellen Ioanes

Ukraine’s continuing rout of Russian forces in the east has exposed fundamental problems within the Russian military, including deficiencies and power struggles in its command structure and gaps in intelligence gathering and processing. Though Russia’s early failures and difficulty recruiting enough soldiers for the front line have been clear for months, the latest operation shows the depth of the disarray and stasis in Russia’s armed forces.

Ukraine’s lightning strike operation in the Kharkiv region demonstrated the Ukrainian military’s ability to take advantage of those deficiencies to recapture not just territory, but strategically important transport and resupply hubs for the Russian military’s eastern front. Although the war is far from over, and Russia still controls around 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory, the Kharkiv operation provided a strategic and moral win for Ukraine, and revealed a Russian military seemingly unable — or unwilling — to learn from its previous errors.

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America’s Top Marine Is Studying Up on Ukraine’s War Effort

Caleb Larson

The nation’s top Marine thinks several valuable lessons can be drawn from the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine that affirm some of the training and doctrine the Marine Corps uses.

During Defense One’s State of Defense conference, held online, Gen. David H. Berger, the commandant of the Marine Corps, highlighted how Ukraine’s decentralized command structure—built upon NATO lines—empowers small-unit leaders to make critical battlefield decisions rather than the top-heavy centralized Russian command structure.

Berger also highlighted Ukraine’s use of surveillance and reconnaissance assets, both for assessing the state of the battlefield and locating and destroying enemy assets, particularly enemy artillery batteries.

The Ukrainian experience on the battlefield “reaffirm[s] the fact that small unit leaders who are well-trained, who have the experience and maturity to make decisions and are empowered to make decisions in lieu of detailed guidance is powerful,” Berger said.

The Israeli Spike Missile Turns Tanks Into Coffins

Girish Linganna

In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is renewed interest in anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM). Ukrainian forces have been enthusiastic about using ATGMs from the get-go. From the Next-Generation Light Anti-armor Weapon (NLAW) to the FGM-148 Javelin, Ukrainian forces have decimated Russian tank power by successfully deploying an asymmetric engagement tactic. Ukrainian troops often take cover under dense canopies and use drones to survey the streets. When a Russian tank approaches, they use ATGM systems to disable or destroy it. As dismounted infantry, they can quickly immobilize multiple Russian tanks before being forced to change positions.

For some perspective, the Soviet-Afghan war lasted nine years and about 150 tanks were lost. Azerbaijan recorded the loss of 250 Armenian tanks during the forty-four day 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. In the seven months since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Russia has lost over 1,800 tanks.

A large part of this must be attributed to ingenious Ukrainian tactics. Battlefield videos often show that when a Russian tank comes under attack from an ATGM, the tank would move away from where the Ukrainian missiles were fired. This meant that the tanks would expose their rear to Ukrainian attackers, increasing the tank’s vulnerability to further attacks.

Law Is On Armenia’s Side in Nagorno-Karabakh

Timothy Jemal Nerses Kopalyan

Military skirmishes erupted this week in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani forces sought to destabilize and seize Armenian-populated territory. Azerbaijan and its cheerleaders in the West say that Azerbaijan is right and note that the United States and other countries recognize Azerbaijan’s administrative authority within the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. While caviar diplomacy and its beneficiaries increase Baku’s volume, neither history nor international law is on Azerbaijan’s side.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian Roots

Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian roots date back to the first century BC, if not before. Thousands of cultural and religious monuments dot the region. While Seluqs, Mongols, and Persians invaded and briefly occupied Nagorno-Karabakh beginning in the eleventh century AD, none controlled the region for more than a few years, and authority devolved back to local Armenians. A century before Russia’s entry into the Transcaucasus, the Persian shah affirmed the right of local Armenian princes to rule over Karabakh. The 1813 Treaty of Gulistan transferred Karabakh from Persia to Russia.

How U.S. Airpower Could Thwart a Chinese Attack on Taiwan

Kris Osborn

Any Chinese maritime buildup for an amphibious attack on Taiwan would most likely be seen by U.S. and allied surveillance systems. Yet given the size and lethality of China’s fast-growing navy, such a prospect clearly poses a major threat to Taiwan, the United States, and U.S. allies in the Pacific.

Such a contingency—particularly in light of China’s emerging fleet of quasi-stealthy Type 055 destroyers, Type 075 amphibious vessels, and operational aircraft carriers—might seem extremely difficult to defend. Could it be stopped?

A threat of this nature is quite likely the reason why the U.S. Navy continues joint patrols and training exercises such as dual-carrier operations, as the key to thwarting any Chinese advance on Taiwan would not only require the forward presence of surface warships but also U.S. undersea and air superiority. Of course, U.S. Navy Virginia-class attack submarines—which are increasingly stealthy, armed with torpedoes, and capable of clandestine intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions near enemy islands and coasts—would be in an optimal position to detect and attack Chinese boats approaching Taiwan.

What Can the Marines Learn From Ukraine’s Success?

Kris Osborn

The war in Ukraine certainly presents a different combat environment than the Pacific. Yet, members of Congress are pointing out the conceptual parallels to guide the development of an optimal mix of weapons and combined arms strategies for future operations.

Many variables have contributed to the unanticipated success of Ukrainian forces, however, one of the key reasons for their performance is a proven ability to effectively integrate certain weapons, tactics, and combat strategies. This includes a combination of long-range fires, such as the high mobility artillery rocket system (HIMARS), standard 155mm artillery, and intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, (ISR) and attack platforms such as Switchblade drones that loiter before descending to destroy targets.

In an interview with The National Interest, Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA), the ranking member of the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee, drew lessons from Ukrainian forces’ success for the Navy and Marines in the Pacific. Referring to Ukraine, Wittman made the point that the right combination of weapons, coupled with effective tactics, could achieve a powerful combined arms effect.

Is the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process Dead?

Farid Shafiyev Vasif Huseynov

On September 13, Azerbaijan’s defense ministry reported that the Armenian armed forces committed large-scale provocations in the Dashkasan, Kalbajar, and Lachin directions of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. The escalation resulted in the losses of military servicemen on both sides in one of the most severe hostilities since the end of the Second Karabakh War.

The clashes came after difficult negotiations in Brussels mediated by European Council President Charles Michel last month. While three previous meetings raised hopes for the prospect of signing a peace treaty based on a five-point proposal initiated by Azerbaijan, which rests on the mutual recognition of the territorial integrity of both countries, Armenia reintroduced the issue of the so-called status of Nagorno-Karabakh, which means returning to a conflict-related agenda. Moreover, beyond agreeing to a peace settlement, there are three other problems that must be addressed. First, the delimitation of borders, which was under Armenian control for thirty years and thus never defined. Second, the opening of transportation links, and third, the resolution of humanitarian problems such as landmines, detainees, and missing persons.

The West Won’t Like Russia’s Next Move in Ukraine

Ted Galen Carpenter

NATO officials and the Western news media have not concealed their glee that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has forced a precipitous withdrawal of Russian troops from a sizable chunk of territory near the eastern city of Kharkiv. The attack did appear to catch the Kremlin by surprise. Russian leaders expected the main counteroffensive to come in the south, and the bulk of Kyiv’s efforts do appear to be focused on that region. Nevertheless, the loss in the east is a significant military setback—and an even greater embarrassment—to Russia’s military command and the Putin government.

Enthusiastic pro-Ukraine figures in Europe and the United States are celebrating and contending that Kyiv’s success portends Russia’s overall defeat in the war. According to that thesis, Russian president Vladimir Putin will have to accept a peace accord that falls far short of the Kremlin’s initial goals. The best he can supposedly hope for is an agreement which restores the status quo ante—which would mean that Moscow gains no territory, nor would Ukraine be prevented from joining NATO. More optimistic types speculate that such a spectacular failure, which comes after massive expenditures of both blood and treasure, might well lead to Putin’s ouster.

Schrödinger’s Cat Emerges from the Bag

William Alan Reinsch

For the second week in a row, my plans to write about the electric vehicle (EV) tax credit and its implications for the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been derailed by external events, this time a speech on Friday by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

His speech to the Special Competitiveness Studies Project (SCSP) Global Emerging Technologies Summit addressed a popular topic these days—the accelerating digital revolution, its application to more aspects of our lives, and its implications for U.S. policy. Some of it was old, even well-worn, but some of it was new. Sullivan laid out four policy pillars and then proceeded to dissect each of them: investing in our science and technology ecosystem, nurturing top STEM talent, protecting our technology advantages, and deepening and integrating our alliances and partnerships.

The first is not new, but Sullivan did lay out clearly what the government thinks is important—computer-related technologies, biotechnologies and biomanufacturing, and clean energy technology. Much of the government’s action is embodied in the CHIPS and Science Act, an executive order on Biotech and Biomanufacturing, and the Inflation Reduction Act. He also attempted to address one of the perennial criticisms of industrial policy by arguing that in this case the government was trying to draw in private capital rather than replace it with federal spending. That is the right approach, but it remains to be seen if it will work.

Blockchain’s Future Lies in Reversible Transactions

Blockchain technology is terrific. We all know it well, especially those who have delved deeper into it. Transactions on the blockchain are incredibly secure, almost unbreakable, which we can not claim about traditional payment methods. But it’s not without its problems that need to be solved.

One of the biggest issues is the irreversibility of transactions. If you’ve ever made a crypto transaction, you know how crucial it is to enter the correct info. If you don’t, the funds could go elsewhere and likely be lost forever.

As this could be problematic for larger transactions, we wanted to cover why that’s the case in this article. More importantly, we’ll delve deeper into why transactions on the blockchain should become reversible and how that can work. It might sound impossible, but there are always ways. Let’s see what those are.

China’s semiconductor output posts biggest monthly decline in August, as Covid-19 controls, economic headwinds weaken demand

Ann Cao

China’s monthly semiconductor output recorded its biggest ever decline in August, as the government’s crippling zero-Covid-19 policy and a slowing domestic economy continued to weaken consumer spending.

Production of integrated circuits (ICs) last month slumped 24.7 per cent year on year to 24.7 billion units, marking the largest single-month decrease since records began in 1997, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday. The IC volume was the lowest on record since October 2020.

That also marked the second consecutive month of contraction for the domestic semiconductor industry, which saw its output shrink 16.6 per cent to 27.2 billion units in July.

Ukraine has shot down 55 Russian warplanes, U.S. general says

PAUL MCLEARY

Ukrainian air defenses have shot down at least 55 Russian warplanes since the start of the war in late February, a U.S. general said Monday, saying the huge losses are a major reason Russian fighter planes and bombers have not played much of a role in the conflict.

Ukrainians took down those planes using older Russian-made air defenses, forcing the Russians to severely limit the sorties they flew near Ukrainian positions. The shootdown also cut Russian ground forces off from the kind of air support they would need to take and hold territory, Air Forces in Europe and Africa commander Gen. James Hecker told reporters at the annual Air Force Association conference.

That lack of protection from the sky has been one of the big surprises of the war, as most analysts expected Russia to quickly establish dominance over Ukraine’s airspace in the early days of the invasion. That failure allowed the Ukrainian air force to regroup and survive mostly intact. Hecker estimated that Ukraine retains about 80 percent of its air force, seven months into the war.

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