Ivan Shkvarun
The modern era is one of constant flux and change. Burgeoning technologies are all around us, perpetually evolving and imperceptibly melding with our lives. This has led to a lot of speculation about what the future of tech holds, and in particular, what will become of that seminal invention of recent history—the internet.
Working in the sphere of open-source intelligence for years, I’ve encountered numerous theories on this topic, but the one that has intrigued me the most is the concept of Web3. While predictions and doubts abound about this new potential paradigm, one thing remains clear to me: The unknowns of tomorrow are also opportunities, and those who adapt early on are the ones who stand to gain if a sea change does occur.
So, here are my thoughts on where I think the World Wide Web might be heading and what this actually means for the individuals and organizations whose activities are inextricably linked to these technologies.
The Evolution Of The Internet
Web 1.0
By and large, the early period of the World Wide Web was a “read-only” time, when the internet was predominantly characterized by data consumption. The vast majority of users absorbed content rather than generated it.
Web browsing was straightforward and carefree—we just followed hyperlinks to static, simple, noninteractive webpages, whose data was stored in server file systems. There weren’t all the forms and ads that clutter the experience today.
Web 2.0
This is our current period, which represents a general shift from a passive culture of consumption to a far more interactive one where users have become content creators. This is a time of social media and blogs, in which the internet is host to many virtual communities.
At the same time, this has led to a massive proliferation of online data, with users leaving their information voluntarily in return for access to resources. Ours is the era of recommendation algorithms and targeted ads, which feed off of a new type of currency: user data. Information is still stored on single servers and issued on demand, but the point is that users can’t control it—it all remains in corporate hands.
Web3
So the big question is, what’s next? Amid all the speculation, the issue of data control is central to me. The concept of Web3 is attractive as a framework for decentralization: Data would no longer be stored on designated servers but distributed among the user base, shifting focus away from self-appointed data masters to individuals. This has significant implications for a range of issues, including the following:
• Ownership: Ultimate control of all data would revert to the owner, meaning companies would no longer be able to trade off such data without the express permission of the individual or company that possesses the information. This would also have interesting repercussions for censorship, as companies would not have the power to de-platform users and change the rules whenever they feel like it. Meanwhile, NFTs could empower users to monetize their digital endeavors, as opposed to merely having them aggregated and sold to advertisers.
• The Spread Of Technologies: The emergence of Web3 would necessitate the widespread adoption of the technologies key to building the new service. Blockchains would have to become the primary method of online data storage, which would mean an immense migration. The complexity involved in making this all work has led many to assert that machine learning will be the lifeblood behind the development and maintenance of Web3.
• Behavioral Patterns: It wouldn’t just be technologies that would need to adapt in order to accommodate this new paradigm; we would also see a shift in the way humans interact online. The permanent and cumulative nature of blockchains means that people could develop online identities that are far more nuanced and realistic than the abstractions of social media. Some have even hypothesized about “decentralized identities”—detailed, blockchain-based records of each individual’s online self and history, which actually carry significant weight in the real world.
• Data Security: People hand over their data on the assumption that a huge company (such as Apple, for instance) can’t possibly have security gaps. This is demonstrably false, and no company is immune. Web3 could bring about a revolution in data security. Regardless of where the data is stored, encryption means that access is utterly restricted to those with permission—there is no corporate database waiting to be hacked into.
• Data Reliability: A crucial characteristic of blockchains is that they cannot be altered after the fact. The contents are essentially set in stone unless you can somehow unravel all subsequent blocks. What’s more, distributed computing automatically invalidates any file copy that differs even microscopically from the others. This could be a highly effective, systemic way to counteract various forms of piracy, copyright infringement and misinformation, restoring a degree of trust in data.
• Democratization: This is not just about giving control of data back to the people but also about development. We could see a massive surge in open-source development, not just for applications but platforms as well. Social networks could be built by the people for the people and moderated democratically by the users.
A Look To The Horizon
With tech, a lot can progress in a short time frame, and as far as revolutionary inventions go, the World Wide Web is still very much in its infancy. That said, there’s no reason to assume that any form of technological progress will be an undiluted blessing. Our tools usually have an ethical ambiguity—it’s how we use them that matters.
While the next generation of the internet might return some security and reliability to our data, people will also develop more advanced modes of hacking and dissemination, muddying the waters all over again. In this context, the relevance of open-source intelligence is bound to grow, helping us cut through the noise and navigate the digital landscape.
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