David Axe
Russian mercenary firm The Wagner Group since this summer has been trying, and so far failing, to capture the town of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.
For Wagner, Bakhmut is a symbol. In seizing the ruins of the lifeless town, which lies 10 miles southwest of Russian-occupied Severodonetsk—one of Donbas’s bigger cities—Wagner apparently aims to establish itself as an alternative to the regular Russian army.
But at least eight of the Ukrainian army’s heaviest brigades keep interrupting Wagner’s plan—and making the battle for Bakhmut a statement about Wagner’s weakness rather than its strength.
“The Russian military and mercenaries have been attacking Bakhmut nonstop since May,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday. “They have been attacking it day and night, but Bakhmut stands.”
The Ukrainian brigades in and around Bakhmut—the 60th and 71st Infantry Brigades, the 24th, 57th and 58th Mechanized Brigades, the 4th Tank Brigade, the 46th Air Mobile Brigade, the 128th Mountain Brigade and others—represent the best of Kyiv’s active army, which in 10 months of hard fighting has bulked up with new and heavier weapons while also translating extensive battlefield experience into better tactics and small-unit leadership.
Each brigade might have 3,000 troops and a hundred or more armored vehicles plus artillery and drones.
The battle for Bakhmut is ongoing. Wagner attacked—again—last week. The Ukrainian counterattacked—again—this week. By Wednesday the front lines were stable enough for Zelensky to drop into Bakhmut for a quick visit with the local garrison. A day later, Zelensky was en route to Washington, D.C. to address the U.S. Congress.
“Last year, 70,000 people lived here in Bakhmut, in this city, and now only few civilians stay,” Zelensky told lawmakers from the U.S. House and Senate, minus a few dozen pro-Russia Republicans who declined to attend the Ukrainian president’s speech.
“Every inch of that land is soaked in blood; roaring guns sound every hour,” Zelensky added. “Trenches in the Donbas change hands several times a day in fierce combat, and even hand-fighting. But the Ukrainian Donbas stands.”
There’s no sign Wagner’s about to give up. But extreme losses—not only in infantry, but also among the mercenary company’s attack pilots—have diminished Wagner’s chances.
After expending its initial contingent of skilled fighters in its first few attempts to capture Bakhmut, the company this fall began recruiting thousands of convicts from Russian prisons—and shoving them toward Bakhmut without adequate training or equipment. According to Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, Wagner might have as many as 50,000 fighters in Ukraine, 40,000 of whom are former prisoners.
Ironically, the closer Wagner gets to downtown Bakhmut, the more dire its predicament becomes. “Intense combat has occurred in the Bakhmut sector since June 2022, but the front lines have primarily been in open country around the eastern approaches to the town,” the U.K. Defense Ministry explained.
“The war has seen little protracted, large-scale fighting in built-up areas since the Russian advances into Lysychansk and Severodonetsk in July 2022,” the ministry added.
Urban combat requires “highly trained infantry with excellent junior-level leadership,” the ministry stated. Ukraine’s brigades have highly-trained infantry, thanks in part to NATO instructors. They have good junior leaders, too, owing to a military culture that distributes responsibility to younger officers and sergeants rather than solely assigning it to aging colonels and generals, as is the Russian custom.
As the Bakhmut battle grinds into its eighth month and becomes increasingly urban, the Ukrainians probably have the advantage. “This type of combat is unlikely to favor poorly-trained Wagner fighters,” the U.K. Defense Ministry concluded.
No comments:
Post a Comment