Joe Webster
On May 19, Beijing proposed expanding the BRICS grouping of nations, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the first mention of any additions since South Africa joined in 2010. Moscow’s initial reaction to Beijing’s proposal was cautious and ambivalent, as the Russian Foreign Ministry took six full days to clarify that it “welcomes China’s proposition to enlarge the alliance…but believes it too early to name new possible members.” Moscow may have been unenthusiastic about any new BRICS members because it believed that expansion would dilute its influence and, potentially, highlight its economic weaknesses.
Russia’s position on expanding BRICS may be changing
Russian state media appeared to welcome Saudi Arabia’s accession yesterday, amplifying reports of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s visit to Riyadh, where Ramaphosa remarked that his Saudi counterpart had expressed interest in joining the BRICS grouping.
China shows no signs of opposing Saudi Arabia’s accession to BRICS, and may even be quietly supportive. While the most authoritative PRC organs (the Foreign Ministry and the People’s Daily, in that order) have yet to weigh in on Riyadh’s latest plan, the Global Times (GT) wrote on Wednesday that the “U.S. ‘oil for security’ formula faces a setback.” The GT also praised Saudi Arabia’s “growing autonomy in its diplomacy with Washington.”
As reported last week, the PRC has (still) not publicly expressed any opposition to OPEC’s production cut — which will, all else being equal, further raise inflation and harm economic growth — despite its status as the world’s largest oil importer.
Saudi’s accession to BRICS could have major geopolitical and economic ramifications. Although BRICS currently lacks cohesion and may be more form than substance, Riyadh’s accession could strengthen the China-Russia axis.
Russian military to withdraw in Kherson, potentially avoiding a catastrophic defeat
As of this writing, Russian military forces are signaling that they intend to withdraw from Kherson, a city less than 75 miles from occupied Crimea. Though Putin initially ordered Russian commanders to hold the politically important but militarily exposed city, he has apparently been persuaded by his generals to change course. While Putin’s forces can expect to sustain significant casualties (and severe equipment losses) during their retreat across the Dnipro River, the maneuver almost certainly decreases the probability of a Russian military disaster.
The retreat will also likely draw sighs of relief in Beijing, as a mass surrender of Russian armed forces, coupled with worsening economic conditions inside Russia, could have imperiled Putin’s domestic political standing.
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