How to defeat Russia and prevent nuclear armageddon with one weird trick

Rafael Loss

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Three weeks before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, I suggested there “would not be a nuclear war, but a war with an undeniable nuclear dimension.” This remains true today – despite some recent claims to the contrary. The risk of nuclear escalation may have increased since 24 February, but it is still extremely remote. Genocide, however, is a certainty if Western leaders, paralysed by the Kremlin’s nuclear talk, were to abandon Ukraine.

Nuclear rhetoric from Russia has been the norm throughout this war. This should not come as a surprise. Russia’s nuclear weapons are an integral part of its escalation-management toolkit, and frequent referrals to its nuclear potential are standard practice. According to researchers Anna Clara Arndt and Liviu Horovitz, Russia calibrates its nuclear rhetoric in pursuit of three distinct goals: “to deter foreign military intervention; dis­suade foreign aid to Ukraine; and coerce the government in Kyiv”.

The Kremlin has achieved at most one and a half of these goals. Pointing to the risk of nuclear escalation, Ukraine’s international supporters continue to abstain from direct military intervention, whether through boots on the ground or a no-fly zone. They have, however, supplied increasingly sophisticated weapons. These allowed Ukrainian forces to reverse the Russian army’s advance on Kyiv, frustrate its campaign in the east, and eject occupying forces from Kharkiv. But Western countries still withhold some aid, including ground-attack missiles with longer ranges, fighter jets, and Western-produced tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Concerns about escalation seem to have played a role these decisions.

Where the Kremlin has undoubtedly failed is in coercing Ukrainians into surrendering to Russian occupation. Just this week, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that peace negotiations with Russia could only start once Ukraine’s territorial integrity had been restored. And even the recent terror bombing of residential areas and energy infrastructure has not diminished the Ukrainian people’s defiance. After the mass murder, rape, and deportations committed by Russians in – at least – Bucha, Irpin, and Mariupol, who would doubt them?