Joseph Dempsey
North Korea is already adding ground-launched land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) to complement its ballistic missile inventory, but could it also be pursuing an air-launched LACM capability? Recent statements from Pyongyang at least raise this possibility as the country attempts to improve and expand its air-launched weapon inventory.
State-controlled media reported on live-fire exercises involving the North Korean Air Force held in early October. According to the coverage, the exercises included attacks on a simulated enemy base using ‘air-to-surface medium-range guided-bombs and cruise missiles’. In the past, neither of these classes of weapons have been officially associated with air force aircraft. The report added that another exercise, conducted shortly after, involved the successful testing of ‘new-type air weapon systems’.
There are several existing North Korean systems that could fit the ‘cruise missile’ description, making them potential candidates for development into an air-launched version, though they have very different performance characteristics and dimensions. Among these is the Kumsong-3 (KN-SS-N-02 Stormpetrel) surface-launched medium range anti-ship missile which may already have been the focus of attempts to develop an air-launched variant. Alternatively, the new weapon could be a variant of a previously seen, and much larger and longer-range, ground-launched land-attack cruise missile. Two long-range cruise missile designs were shown at a North Korean weapons exhibition in October 2021. Pyongyang has claimed that both these missiles have been successfully tested.
Ageing aircraft, ageing weapons The air force currently fields only ageing combat aircraft, and associated air-to-surface weapons. Indeed, the only air-to-surface missiles to have been shown by it are the Soviet-era Zvezda Strela Kh-25 (RS-AS-10 Karen) and the Vympel Kh-29L (RS-AS-14 Kedge).The October exercises included the MiG-29 Fulcrum, MiG-23 Flogger, MiG-21 Fishbed, MiG-19 Farmer, and Sukhoi Su-25 Frogfoot. Some of these types can be used to carry tactical air-to-surface missiles, but not in the same size class as a long-range land-attack cruise missile that might have been derived from the ground-launched weapons now being developed by North Korea. The air force, however, still operates the Ilyushin Il-28/H-5 Beagle light bomber. Despite its 1940s design, it could carry a larger weapon than any other combat aircraft in the air force’s inventory. The Il-28/H-5 was not shown being flown during the exercises, but South Korean reporting indicated four bombers of an unspecified type were involved and these were almost certainly Il-28/H-5.
The Il-28 has previously been associated with North Korea’s air-to-surface weapons development, but no imagery of an in-service capability has ever emerged. These development efforts likely first involved attempts to use the aircraft as a carriage platform for a Styx/HY-1 variant (KN-SSC-02 Serge), possibly for the maritime attack role. Much more recently, the air force may have tested a variant of the Kumsong-3 naval anti-ship missile in the air-launched role. Again, however, Pyongyang has yet to show an air-launched variant of this missile.
The Kumsong-3 uses active radar for terminal guidance in the anti-ship role, with some variants also perhaps fitted with a secondary infrared sensor. Thus, this weapon could provide some capability against a high-radar contrast land target but it would not be effective should precision be required.
Strategic capabilityPyongyang has previously described one of the ground-launched LACM designs as having a ‘strategic’ role. While North Korea appears to have made considerable progress in packaging a nuclear device, further reducing the warhead size to fit within the diameter of the cruise missiles displayed would be notable. It is conceivable that the air force wants to be the third leg in any nascent North Korean nuclear triad. As a potential delivery platform, the Il-28/H-5 is obsolescent but the combination of a 1,000 kilometre combat range plus cruise missile with a similar combat radius for the aircraft would comfortably provide coverage of all of Japan. While an inner-wing pylon mounting could be feasible, the Il-28/H-5 also has an internal bomb bay, though this is too small for a medium-to-long range LACM. The aircraft, however, in the Il-28T variant was modified to carry two large torpedoes, one each side of the fuselage inside of the engine nacelle, while a large weapon could be carried under the central fuselage, or semi-recessed.
Although payload packaging could be an issue for a nuclear variant, terminal guidance might be a challenge for a conventional LACM. Satellite navigation coupled with inertial navigation would be adequate for delivery of a nuclear warhead but would be far less so for delivery of a conventionally armed missile if accuracy was required. The Il-28/H-5 could also carry two, or perhaps even four, air-launched derivatives of the Kumsong-3.
The reference to ‘medium-range guided-bombs’ also suggests a previously unseen system. Medium-range suggests either a rocket-boosted bomb or one fitted with a wing kit, while guidance may be based on satellite navigation. Again, this type of weapon has not been seen previously in development for the air force.
It is unclear exactly which still unseen air-to-surface weapons the air force may have been testing during the exercises. But there is no doubt of North Korea’s need to recapitalise and expand its air-to-surface weapons inventory, tactical or otherwise. Given the ingenuity the country’s missile industry has shown in meeting other national requirements, applying similar creativity to the air-launched sector could yet produce surprises.
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