Washington Examiner
In his famous 1946 "Iron Curtain" speech warning of a rising Soviet imperium, Winston Churchill hailed a "special relationship" between the United States and the British Empire . As Churchill put it: "If the population of the English-speaking Commonwealths be added to that of the United States with all that such cooperation implies in the air, on the sea, all over the globe and in science and in industry, and in moral force, there will be no quivering, precarious balance of power to offer its temptation to ambition or adventure. On the contrary, there will be an overwhelming assurance of security."
The world faces a similar communist threat today. Indeed, because of Beijing's ability to draw traditional American allies into subordinating economic entanglements, its threat is arguably even greater than that which the Soviet Union posed. China has the potential to overcome the common freedom and prosperity that defines the U.S.-led democratic international order. Under Xi Jinping's now-supreme authority, Communist China aims to enthrone itself atop a new feudal mercantilist international order in which Beijing extracts political fealty in return for scraps of economic opportunity.
The U.S.-U.K. response to this challenge will thus determine whether the special relationship indeed remains real. But as attested by Rishi Sunak's accession as British prime minister, it's an open question whether the special relationship can pass this great test.
Entering No. 10 Downing Street this week, Sunak resisted any fanfare. His message, designed for a British public concerned over economic stagnation, is that he will restore growth and confidence. But Washington's legitimate fear is that Sunak's pursuit of rapid growth may see him leap at the short-term offer of Communist gold at the cost of Britain's long-term alliance with America. Sunak's own words evince the risk . Serving as finance minister earlier this year, Sunak responded to growing U.K.-China tensions by calling for a "complete sea change" in relations with Beijing. It echoed a sentiment Sunak struck in 2021 when he used a keynote address to call for a "mature and balanced relationship with China."
The rhetoric has not gone unnoticed in Beijing. Xi's primary West-focused propaganda outlet, the Global Times, has lauded Sunak for his "pragmatic view of developing balanced ties with China." Following Sunak's arrival as prime minister, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman told journalists that "cultivating and advancing sound bilateral ties is the shared responsibility of China and the U.K. ... China hopes to advance ties with the U.K. along the right track on the basis of mutual respect and mutual benefit."
Beijing will now quietly but quickly reach out to Sunak's government, offering the prospect of major new investments to an economy in serious need of them. But the read-between-the-lines contract language will entail Sunak's agreement to limit his support for U.S. foreign policy vis-a-vis Beijing. If Sunak wants China's help in strengthening the United Kingdom's economy, he will have to live by China's conditions. Don't send warships into the South China Sea, they will say. Don't criticize our policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Don't support new restrictions on technology exports and Chinese business interests in the U.K.. Or do you want to suffer like Australia has ?
Yes, Sunak did adopt a more hawkish stance toward China as this summer's Conservative Party leadership contest advanced. That included a pledge to ban Confucius Institutes and review Chinese acquisitions of U.K. businesses in security-related industries. The question, however , is whether these pledges were designed as a play to Conservative primary voters or are actually reflective of a genuine shift in his thinking.
The U.S. must show Sunak that the special relationship accrues special benefits. If he provides support for U.S. security efforts facing China, Sunak's gesture of friendship should not go unanswered. In return for U.K. support, which we hope might include a boosted British submarine presence in the Pacific, the U.S. should reinvigorate negotiations for a U.S.-U.K. trade agreement. Those negotiations began under the Trump administration but have been de-prioritized by President Joe Biden .
The U.S. could also use its leverage on behalf of U.K. economic and political interests with the European Union. Indeed, considering the unashamed cronyism with which EU powers such as Germany now shape their China policies, the U.S. should shift its supportive policies toward nations like Poland and the Baltic States, which recognize Beijing's threat.
Still, hard times require hard choices. If Sunak chooses China's trade over Britain's traditional alliance with the U.S., the nature and expectations of the U.S.-U.K. alliance must shift in tandem. The stakes attached to the U.S.-China struggle are simply too great. In such a scenario, Australia would become America's most special ally.
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