China has no clear road map for Taiwan unification: U.S. experts

KEN MORIYASU

Source Link

TOKYO -- Leading U.S. experts broadly believe China does not have a coherent internal strategy and road map to achieve peaceful unification with Taiwan, according to a new survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The Washington-based think tank conducted a poll of 64 leading analysts to gauge their views on China's game plan shortly after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan that triggered unprecedented Chinese military exercises around the island.

An overwhelming majority said Beijing is willing to wait for unification -- but not forever. The experts were divided on the internal "deadline" that Beijing may have to solve the Taiwan issue -- anywhere between 2027, 2049 and 2072.

The findings show that U.S. experts do not believe Beijing is preparing for immediate action on Taiwan -- perhaps in contrast to how the Taiwan crisis has been portrayed in the media or at think tank seminars.

Bonny Lin, the director of the center's China Power Project and the leader of the survey, told Nikkei Asia: "The survey shows that some of the catchy media headlines about how China may use force against Taiwan tomorrow does not reflect the view of leading experts on China and Taiwan."

The survey, titled "Surveying the Experts: China's Approach to Taiwan," asked whether Beijing has "a coherent internal strategy and road map, with concrete stages and actionable next steps, to achieve peaceful unification with Taiwan."

To this, 80% of respondents said "no."

CSIS noted that this is likely related to "China's inability to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwan government and people" and the collapse of the "one country, two systems" model offered by Beijing after it reversed its promises of autonomy in Hong Kong.

This has led Beijing to increasingly leverage coercive tools against the island, including threats to use significant military force, CSIS said. "These dynamics raise serious questions as to whether China has a coherent strategy for peaceful unification with Taiwan."

Yet the experts do not believe this means Beijing's approach is to push for unification at the earliest possible opportunity. Only 10% said so, while 84% said Beijing is willing to wait for unification but will not accept the status quo permanently.

"For this group, there is likely an assessment that Beijing is willing to wait because the conditions -- political, economic, or military -- are not yet optimal for China to achieve peaceful or forceful unification," CSIS said.

Elbridge Colby, one of the respondents and author of "The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict," told Nikkei Asia that "Beijing will be willing to permanently accept the status quo if the alternative is humiliating failure."

Noting that Beijing probably does not have a "drop-dead date" for solving the Taiwan issue and that it is flexible in its approach, Colby said there is a possibility that China could engage in an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in the next 10 years.

"If the U.S., Taiwan and Japan neglect the threat, I think the risk will be much higher. I think if we prepare to defend Taiwan, the risk will be much lower," he said.

A picture of Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen behind soldiers of China's People's Liberation Army at a military base in Beijing. © Reuters

The experts were divided on Beijing's timeline for unification. The largest group of respondents, 44%, said China's deadline is 2049, the centennial of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

Only 3% said China will seek to achieve unification in the next five years, which would be in line with the 2027 time frame floated by Adm. Philip Davidson, a former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command who told Congress in March 2021 that the Taiwan threat is "manifest" in the next six years.

Another 8% said the goal is within the next 15 years -- close to the 2035 target that President Xi Jinping has set for many government programs -- and 3% said the goal may be in the next 50 years.

Some 42% answered that Beijing can wait indefinitely as long as it still sees unification as possible.

Asked whether China plans to use significant kinetic military force against Taiwan by 2027, 83% of respondents said "no."

Two areas that the experts were consistent on were the questions of whether Beijing would invade Taiwan immediately if Taipei declared independence (77% said yes) and whether Beijing believes the U.S. would be willing to deploy troops in Taiwan's defense in the event of an invasion (100% said yes).

"What surprised me was that while there were relatively clear majority responses for each answer, there were only two people out of 64 who answered the same across all 13 questions," CSIS's Lin said. "I had expected more people to answer the questions in similar ways across the board."