‘Big wars take a lot of bullets’

PAUL MCLEARY, ALEXANDER WARD and LAWRENCE UKENYE

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Top military weapons buyers from dozens of countries are huddling in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss next steps in arming Ukraine for the long haul, and to begin mapping out a strategy for replenishing their own stocks depleted by the war.

The meeting takes place as the Kremlin hardens its position on the war, calling up 300,000 conscripts and threatening to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues its offensive against Russian-occupied territory.

The day of meetings in Brussels comes under the umbrella of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, an ad hoc alliance of around 50 NATO, EU and other nations that have gathered every few weeks to discuss what military aid can be sent to Ukraine rapidly. Those meetings have spurred the transfer of American-made guided-missile launchers, along with multiple rocket launchers, armored vehicles and artillery systems from across Europe. WILLIAM LaPLANTE, the Pentagon’s top acquisitions official, is convening Wednesday’s meeting.

The Pentagon announced a new $1.1 billion military aid package to Ukraine on Wednesday featuring 18 new HIMARS. The money will be drawn from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, leaving about $400 million in the account.

An increased supply of weapons to replace what’s been given to Ukraine couldn’t come quickly enough for frontline states in Europe. They fear that clogged supply chains, dwindling workforces and long lead times will leave their arsenals thinned out, complicating their material support to Kyiv in the months ahead.

“There’s no quick replenishment fix,” a senior Finnish defense official told NatSec Daily and a group of reporters and experts in Helsinki last week, noting that everyone’s stocks are shrinking fast. “Big wars take a lot of bullets.”

“We are having discussions with the defense industry because like most countries we have taken equipment, weapons, ammunition and so on from our stocks to send to Ukraine,” Norwegian Defense Minister BJØRN ARILD GRAM told POLITICO during a visit to Washington for meetings at the Pentagon last week. “We will still look into that but at the same time … we have to replenish our own stocks and also purchase more for Ukraine.”

In the meantime, officials in Europe’s east continue to push France and Germany to arm Kyiv, giving Ukraine the firepower it needs and smaller countries enough time to regrow their arsenals. “If other countries did as much as we are doing, the war would be over,” Latvian Defense Minister ARTIS PABRIKS told the same group of reporters and experts in Riga last week. "We had to start expanding production already yesterday."

At issue are calls for Germany to give Leopard main battle tanks to Ukraine to help in its grinding offensives in the south and east, something Berlin has so far refused to do until other allies also send heavy armor. The French are also in the mix for potentially sending more Caesar mobile howitzers to Ukraine, and Foreign Minister CATHERINE COLONNA arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit on Tuesday.