James Marson, Matthew Luxmoore and Ian Lovett
MYKOLAIV, Ukraine—After a crescendo of long-range strikes on Russian military facilities and bridges in the dark of night early Monday, Ukrainian forces launched a southern offensive with attacks along the front lines.
Ukrainian armor crashed over the Inhulets River and established a bridgehead, the main gains that Kyiv has made in two days of fighting.
Whether Ukraine can capitalize on its initial thrust and retake territory in its south that Russia seized at the start of its invasion will go a long way to shape the next phase of the war.
After repelling the Russians from the outskirts of Kyiv in the spring, Ukraine had been slowly losing ground in the east in the face of intensive shelling and airstrikes. But after all but halting the Russians there, Ukraine sought to cut off enemy forces on the western bank of the Dnipro River in the south by using precise, long-range rockets provided by the U.S. to strike bridges and military facilities.
Russia has indicated it wants to annex the lands it holds in Ukraine’s south and has sought to play down the Ukrainian assault.
Further Ukrainian gains would boost national morale and show the country’s military and financial backers in the West, who are facing a winter of economic troubles, that Ukraine’s military can halt the Russians and also take back territory.
“Not only would this be their first substantial offensive, it would be a demonstration to the West that they should continue supporting Ukraine to fully push the Russians out of their territory,” said retired Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan.
A warning sign marks a minefield that surrounds a skate park in Mykolaiv, Ukraine.PHOTO: JOSEPH SYWENKYJ FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNALA Ukrainian advance would also be crucial for residents of occupied areas holding out hope that Ukraine will liberate their towns.
“I think the political dimensions of this offensive are as important as the military ones,” Gen. Ryan said.
Ukrainian officials have cautioned against excessive optimism. They say the offensive will be slow and grinding.
“This will be a tough fight for the Ukrainians,” said Gen. Ryan. “Offensive operations are hard to coordinate and support, compared to defensive operations.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he wants to retake Kherson, the only regional capital Russia captured since launching its invasion on Feb. 24. That would give Ukraine a gateway for attacks on Crimea Russia seized in 2014.
‘The political dimensions of this offensive are as important as the military ones’— Retired Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan
The southern offensive is the latest sign that Ukraine is seeking to seize the initiative. Ukrainian sabotage groups this month struck an air base and ammunition depot in Crimea, which acts as a rear base for Russian forces in the south of Ukraine. They were the first major strikes there and sent many Russians fleeing to the mainland while Ukrainians celebrated.
“Ukrainians can sense that momentum is shifting in their favor,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. “This will make it much more feasible for Ukraine’s supporters and Ukrainians to envision the recovery of Ukraine. It will continue to remove the idea that Russian victory is inevitable.”
Thousands of Russian troops on the western bank of the Dnipro River are now all but trapped, with Ukraine saying it had damaged bridges across the river sufficiently to prevent any heavy vehicles from crossing.
“They haven’t been properly resupplied,” said Gen. Hodges. “Their chances of getting out of there are not good.”
Residents collect water on Tuesday in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv.PHOTO: JOSEPH SYWENKYJ FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNALUkraine is well aware of the importance of the offensive. The military has restricted access for reporters to the front lines and demanded that officials, media and semiofficial propagandists hold their tongues.
Ukrainian officials say little more than that things are going to plan. They have long said they don’t have sufficient armor and troops to mount a broad, overwhelming offensive.
Instead, they wanted to cut off the Russian troops from their supplies and now are seeking to destroy them piece by piece.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister, played down the significance of Monday’s events, saying it is a continuation of operations that had been taking place for weeks.
“I can’t say that something has dramatically changed,” he said. “They are slowly pushing forward.”
Still, he said, “we’re destroying their capacity to hold territory.”
A National Guard soldier manning a checkpoint south of Mykolaiv, some 10 miles from the front line, said Ukraine has been wary of launching ground offensives because of the size of Russia’s forces. He said strikes on Mykolaiv, long a target of Russian missiles, had stepped up in the past two days.
“They’re trying to get their revenge, wherever they can and against whomever they can,” he said.
Residents of Mykolaiv on Tuesday also noted a rise in the number of Russian rocket and artillery strikes since Ukraine’s counteroffensive was announced.
Natalia Kirtenko, a 64-year-old retiree, was gathering water at a public well south of the city center on Tuesday evening when explosions rang out in the distance.
She said the increase in attacks on Mykolaiv has given people hope that the battlefield balance will shift. “At least we know this means our guys are moving forward,” she said. “So our mood has improved.”
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