Ukraine’s counter-offensive against invading Russian forces is an important turn in the war, though not without peril as Vladimir Putin calculates how to respond. Western leaders have to be prepared that he will use nuclear weapons, or attempt to involve NATO directly in the conflict.
In less than a week, Ukrainian forces have retaken some three thousand square kilometers from the Russian invaders. That’s more Ukrainian territory than Russia has seized since April. “The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis,” says the Institute for the Study of War, which has ably tracked the conflict.
The counter-offensive’s early success is notable for its planning and deception. Ukraine advertised for months that it was planning to advance in the country’s south, around the city of Kherson, and Russia sent reinforcements there. Ukraine has made some gains in the south, but it seems to have surprised the Russians around Kharkiv. Ukraine’s military intelligence, no doubt with U.S. help, seems to be better than Russia’s.
Also striking is the chaotic Russian retreat in the Kharkiv region, suggesting poor morale and military leadership. A Ukrainian soldier fighting near Balakliya and Izyum texts our Jillian Melchior: “We knew that there were morale [problems] within Russian troops. But we were shocked how much tanks and armored vehicles etc. they drop behind. Fight is over. They’re afraid to be surrounded. That’s why they run so quickly. We need to push harder.”
The desire to push harder suggests how much the Russian retreat is helping Ukrainian morale. Superior Ukrainian military esprit in defense of the homeland has been an advantage from the beginning. This is in contrast to Russian troops, who are dying by the thousands in a campaign in a foreign country.
The territorial gains are strategically significant because they complicate Russia’s ability to reinforce its troops. The Institute for the Study of War said Sunday that Ukraine has taken the city of Izyum, a necessary step toward liberating Ukrainian troops pinned down in Slovyansk. The advances build on one another.
The offensive vindicates Ukraine’s assurances that with enough advanced Western weapons it could retake territory. After Ukraine’s early victory in defense of Kyiv, the U.S. and Europe let Russia gain an artillery advantage in the Donbas. But once the U.S. supplied longer-range rockets and artillery, especially precise Himars, it has become a more even fight. Ukraine’s recent advances show the U.S. should supply even more Himars platforms, and not merely more rockets for the 16 platforms Ukraine currently has.
Ukraine’s advances raise the stakes for Mr. Putin. Russian military bloggers are sounding the alarm, but Mr. Putin has been reluctant to mobilize the entire country for his “special military operation,” lest he court more domestic opposition. Russia’s response on Sunday to its recent losses was to attack power stations in Kharkiv and other cities. This is an attack on electricity for civilians.
The Russian is capable of anything. He could engage NATO forces in some fashion that he would blame on the West and use to justify a military draft. He’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week and is likely to seek direct military aid that the U.S. says Beijing hasn’t provided. He’s also likely to cut off energy supplies to Europe even more than he has to keep the pressure on the West as cold weather arrives.
Russia’s use of chemical and tactical nuclear weapons also can’t be ruled out. The use of battlefield nukes is part of standard Russian military doctrine. Rather than lose in humiliating fashion, Mr. Putin may calculate the military benefits are worth the risks.
We hope Western leaders have been mulling how to respond rather than thinking it can’t happen. One point to make clear is that the fault would be all Mr. Putin’s, not Ukraine’s. Factions in the West, on the right and left, believe Ukraine should be left to its fate without Western aid, and they will blame Ukraine for having the nerve to defend itself against a brutal invader.
A nuclear escalation can’t be accepted as normal warfare. Radiation fallout could reach NATO territory. NATO will have to increase its military aid and let Ukraine take the fight inside Russia. We hope Western leaders are making clear to Mr. Putin that he will become a global pariah if he does go nuclear.
The prospect is horrific to contemplate, but this is the reality of a world with dictators on the march after decades of Western complacency. Ukraine’s advances are encouraging, but Mr. Putin’s threat to the world is far from over.
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