Yang Liu
As previously announced by Pekingnology, this newsletter will offer you an exclusive digital version of Elon Musk’s essay in China Cyberspace, a monthly magazine run by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), the central agency for internet control and regulation.
Musk’s piece was carried in the fourth issue of the magazine, published in July, under the column “Global Vision”.
Below is the original text and translation of Musk’s essay.
Believing in technology for a better future
Thank you for the invitation from China Cyberspace magazine. I am pleased to share with my Chinese friends some of my thoughts on the vision of technology and humanity.
相信科技创造美好未来
感谢《中国网信》杂志的邀约，很高兴能与中国朋友分享我对科技与人类愿景的一些思考
As technology accelerates, it may one day surpass human understanding and control. Some are optimistic and some are pessimistic. But I believe that as long as we are not complacent and always maintain a sense of urgency, the future of humanity will be bright, driven by the power of technology. It is like a self-fulfilling prophecy: if humans want to make the future good, they should take action to make it good.
随着科技加速发展，有一天技术也许会超越人类的理解力和掌控力。对此，有人乐观， 有人悲观。但我相信，只要我们不自满，始终保持紧迫感，那么在科技力量的推动下，人类的前景终将是美好的。 这就像是一个自证预言：如果人类想让未来美好，就应该采取行动让未来变得美好。
I want to do everything we can to maximize the use of technology to help achieve a better future for humanity. To that end, any area that contributes to a sustainable future is worthy of our investment. Whether it's Tesla, Neuralink, or SpaceX, these companies were all founded with the ultimate goal of enhancing the future of human life and creating as much practical value for the world as possible—Tesla to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, Neuralink for medical rehabilitation, SpaceX for making interstellar connections possible.
我希望尽我们的可能，用科技手段最大化为实现人类美好未来助力。为此，任何有助于实现未来可持续发展的领域都值得我们投入。无论是特斯拉、脑机接口公司，还是太空探索技术公司，这些企业创立的终极目标都是为了提升人类未来的生活品质，尽可能创造更多对世界的实用价值——特斯拉旨在加速世界向可持续能源转变，脑机接口公司投身医疗康复事业，太空探索技术公司使星际连接成为可能。
Clean Energy: The Future of Sustainability
The starting point for my thinking about clean energy is how to create and store energy sustainably and for the long term, and how to provide a constant source of power for the future of productive life. In my view, the future of sustainable energy involves three components.
清洁能源：可持续发展的未来
对于清洁能源，我思考的出发点是，如何持续且长久地制造、储存能源，如何为未来的生产生活源源不断提供动力。在我看来，可持续能源的未来涉及三个环节。
The generation of sustainable energy. The sun is like a giant fusion generator, from which mankind currently exploits a tiny amount of energy. In the long run, solar energy will become the main source of energy for human civilization. Of course, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and nuclear power are also useful energy supplements.
可持续能源的生成。太阳好比一个巨大的核聚变发电机，人类目前从中开发的能量微乎其微。从长远来看，太阳能将成为人类文明的主要能源。当然，风力、水力、地热、核电也是有益的能源补充。
The storage of sustainable energy. Given the change of day and night and the change of weather, we need a lot of fixed battery banks to store solar and wind energy, because the sun does not shine all the time, and the wind does not blow all the time, energy needs to be stored in a large number of fixed battery banks.
可持续能源的储存。鉴于昼夜更替和天气的阴晴变化，我们需要很多固定的电池组来储存太阳能和风能，因为太阳不会一直照耀， 大风也不会一直吹拂，无形的能量需要被封存在大量固定式的电池组内。
Electrified transportation. Full electrification of transportation, including cars, planes, and ships. Electric rockets may be more difficult, but we may be able to manufacture the propellant used in rockets from sustainable energy sources. Eventually, the world economy will be run entirely by sustainable energy sources.
电动化的交通运输。包括汽车、飞机、轮船在内的交通工具全面电气化。电动火箭可能比较困难，但我们或许能够通过可持续能源来制造火箭中使用的推进剂。最终，世界经济将实现完全由可持续能源运转。
The world is on track for a sustainable energy transition, and humanity should continue to accelerate the process. The faster this transition is achieved, the less risk humanity poses to the environment and the more it will gain. When clean energy is available, carbon sequestration and desalination will be cheaper, climate change and water shortages will be solved, and when fossil fuels are out of the picture, the skies will be cleaner, the world will be quieter, the air will be fresher, and the future will be brighter.
世界正在向可持续能源转变的轨道前进，人类应不断加速这一进程。因为越快实现这一转变，人类给环境造成的风险就越小，获得的增益就越多。当清洁能源的供给源源不断时，碳封存和海水淡化的成本将更低廉，气候变化和水资源短缺的问题也将迎刃而解；当化石燃料退出历史舞台后，天空会变得更干净，世界会更安静，空气将更清新，未来也将更光明。
Solar power, battery packs, and electric vehicles paint a rosy picture. Next, we need to focus on the limiting factors. The electrification of cars has become a consensus among nations, but battery support on a terawatt-hour scale is needed to roll out pure electric vehicles around the globe. According to our estimates, the world needs about 300 TWh of battery storage to achieve a transition to sustainable energy. The biggest difficulty in advancing sustainable energy lies in the large-scale production of lithium battery cells. Specifically, from the mining and element refining to battery cells coming off of the production line and finally assembled into battery packs, this is a complex process that is restraining the rapid development of a sustainable energy economy.
太阳能、电池组、电动车勾勒出一片美好前景。接下来我们需要集中精力解决限制性因素。汽车电动化发展已成为各国共识，但纯电动汽车在全球范围的普及需要太瓦时规模级别的电池支持。根据我们的估算，人类大约需要300太瓦时的电池储能，才能实现可持续能源转型。而推进可持续能源的最大难点在于锂电池电芯的规模化生产。具体而言，从采矿、元素提炼到电池电芯下生产线，最终组成电池组，需要经历诸多复杂的环节。可以说，电池电芯的生产制约了可持续能源经济的快速发展。
As a pioneer and innovator focusing on energy innovation technology, Tesla was founded to solve the problem of energy innovation. On the one hand, we create integrated sustainable energy products from the three segments of energy production, storage and use; on the other hand, we are committed to redefining battery manufacturing by innovating and developing advanced battery technology to remove restrictions on battery capacity. I believe that the world will transition to a sustainable future through a combination of solar and wind energy plus battery storage and electric vehicles. I am pleased to see more and more companies joining this field. Chinese companies will be a force to be reckoned with in the cause of energy innovation.
作为聚焦能源革新技术的开拓者和创新者，特斯拉成立的初衷就是为了解决能源革新问题。一方面，我们从能源生产、储存到使用三个环节打造综合可持续能源产品；另一方面，我们致力于通过创新研发先进的电池技术，重新定义电池制造，取消对电池容量的限制。我相信，世界将通过太阳能、风能加上电池储存和电动汽车的组合，过渡到可持续发展的未来。我很高兴看到越来越多的企业加入这一领域。在能源革新事业中，中国企业将是不可忽视的力量。
Humanoid robots: doing what humans do
Today's cars are increasingly like smart, web-connected robots on wheels. In fact, in addition to cars, humanoid robots are also becoming a reality, with Tesla launching a general-purpose humanoid robot (Tesla Bot) in 2021. The Tesla Bot is close to the height and weight of an adult, can carry or pick up heavy objects, walk fast in small steps, and the screen on its face is an interactive interface for communication with people. You may wonder why we designed this robot with legs. Because human society is based on the interaction of a bipedal humanoid with two arms and ten fingers. So if we want a robot to adapt to its environment and be able to do what humans do, it has to be roughly the same size, shape, and capabilities as a human.
人形机器人：做人类所做之事
如今的汽车越来越像装了轮子的智能网连机器人。事实上，除了汽车，人形机器人也正变为现实。2021年特斯拉推出一个通用的人形机器人（Tesla Bot）。特斯拉机器人的身高体重接近一位成年人，可搬运或手提重物，还能小步快走，它脸上的屏幕是与人沟通的交互界面。你或许会好奇，我们为什么要设计这个有腿的机器人？因为人类社会是基于拥有两条手臂和十个手指的双足人形的互动而形成的。因此，如果我们想让机器人适应环境并能做人类所做之事，他就得拥有与人类大致相同的尺寸，形状和能力。
Tesla Bots are initially positioned to replace people in repetitive, boring, and dangerous tasks. But the vision is for them to serve millions of households, such as cooking, mowing lawns, and caring for the elderly.
Achieving this goal requires that robots evolve to be smart enough and for us to have the ability to mass produce robots. Our "four-wheeled robots" - cars - have changed the way people travel and even live. One day when we solve the problem of self-driving cars (i.e., real-world artificial intelligence), we will be able to extend artificial intelligence technology to humanoid robots, which will have a much broader application than cars.
特斯拉机器人最初的定位是替代人们从事重复枯燥、具有危险性的工作。但远景目标是让其服务于千家万户，比如做饭、修剪草坪、照顾老人等。
实现这一目标需要机器人进化得足够智能以及具备大规模生产机器人的能力。我们生产的“四轮机器人”——汽车，改变了人们的出行乃至生活方式。而当有一个天我们解决了汽车的自动驾驶问题（即现实世界的人工智能问题）后，就可以将人工智能技术推广到人形机器人身上，这将比汽车具有更广阔的应用前景。
We plan to launch the first prototype of a humanoid robot this year and focus on improving the intelligence of that robot and solving the problem of large-scale production. Thereafter, humanoid robots' usefulness will increase yearly as production scales up and costs fall. In the future, a home robot may be cheaper than a car. Perhaps in less than a decade, people will be able to buy a robot for their parents as a birthday gift.
我们计划在今年推出首个人形机器人的原型机，并着力提升该机器人智能化程度，解决规模化生产难题。此后，随着生产规模扩大和成本下降，人形机器人的实用性将逐年提升。将来，一台家用机器人可能比一辆汽车还便宜。也许在未来不到十年的时间里，人们就可以给父母买一个机器人作为生日礼物。
It is foreseeable that with the power of robots, we will create an era of extreme abundance of goods and services, where everyone can live a life of abundance. Perhaps the only scarcity that will exist in the future is for us to create ourselves as humans.
可以预见，借助机器人的力量，我们将创造一个商品和服务极度充裕的时代，人人都能过上富足的生活。或许，未来唯一存在的稀缺，是我们作为人类来创造我们自己。
Neuralink: Empowering the Disabled
Some of our Chinese friends may not be as familiar with Neuralink as with electric cars. These companies focus on developing computer-human brain fusion technologies, developing brain chips the size of coins, similar to wearable devices such as smartphones, except that they integrate more deeply with the user's body—recording and stimulating brain activity through implants in the cerebral cortex.
脑机接口：为失能者赋能
相对于电动车，也许一些中国朋友并不那么熟悉脑机接口公司。这类公司主要从事电脑与人脑融合技术开发，其研发的大脑芯片如硬币般大小，类似智能手机等可穿戴设备，只不过它能更深度地与用户身体结合——通过植入大脑皮层来记录和刺激大脑活动。
At this stage, the technology is helping injured people on an individual level. We have received many saddening letters: a 25-year-old young man was in the prime of his life when he had a motorcycle accident that left him unable to eat on his own, which is a great grief for the individual and the family. In light of this, brain-machine interface technology will be focused on curing or alleviating brain injury and other related disorders in the years to come. For example, it could help restore sensory or motor function to limbs of those with spinal injuries and mental system disorders or allow quadriplegics to use their brains to easily operate computers or cell phones.
现阶段，这项技术正在从个体层面对伤者提供帮助。我们收到了很多让人惋惜的邮件：一个25岁的年轻人在人生的黄金时期，骑摩托车发生了意外，导致无法自主进食，这无论对个人还是家庭都是莫大的悲痛。鉴于此，脑机接口技术将在未来很多年内都专注于治愈或缓解脑损伤等相关疾病。例如，它可以帮助那些因脊柱损伤和患有精神系统疾病的人恢复肢体感觉或运动功能，或让四肢瘫患者能够运用自己的大脑轻松地操作电脑或手机。
This technology can also improve a wider range of brain injury problems, whether these disorders are congenital or accidental, or caused by age and external stressors, including severe depression, morbid obesity, sleep problems, and underlying schizophrenia, all of which are expected to be alleviated by human-computer devices.
这项技术还可以改善更广泛的脑损伤问题，无论这些疾病是先天性的还是意外导致的，或是由年龄和外部压力因素造成的，包括严重的抑郁症，病态肥胖、睡眠问题、潜在的精神分裂症等，都有望通过人机设备得以缓解。
With the development of brain-machine interface technology, in the long term, this connection is expected to expand the channels of communication between the outside world and the human brain, "accessing" more brain regions and new neural data. This technology could allow humans to effectively integrate with artificial intelligence and ultimately expand new ways for humans to interact with the world, themselves and others. Even if the goal of human-machine integration is difficult to achieve, brain-machine interface technology could be of great value in the field of medical rehabilitation.
随着脑机接口技术的发展，远期看，这种连接将有望扩展外界与人类大脑交流的渠道，“访问”更多的大脑区域和新的神经数据。该技术可以让人类有效地和人工智能融合在一起，并最终扩展人类与世界、自己和他人的全新互动方式。即便人机结合的目标难以实现，脑机接口技术在医疗康复领域也会发挥巨大价值。
Space exploration: the possibility of cross-planet habitats
Finally, my greatest hope is that humans create a self-sustaining city on Mars. Many people ask me why I want to explore outer space and turn humans into multi-planetary creatures. In the vast universe, human civilization is like a faint little candle, like a little shimmering light in the void. When the sun expands one day and the Earth is no longer habitable, we can fly to a new home in a spaceship. If humans can inhabit other planets, it means that they have passed one of the conditions of the great screening of the universe, then we will become interplanetary citizens, and human civilization will be able to continue.
太空探索：跨星球栖息的可能性
最后，我最大的希望是，人类在火星上创造一个自给自足的城市。很多人问我，为什么要探索外太空，让人类变成多行星生物？茫茫宇宙中，人类文明就像一只微弱小烛，宛若虚空中的一点微光。当有一天，太阳膨胀导致地球不再宜居，我们可以乘坐飞船飞向新的家园。如果人类能栖息于其他行星，就代表着人类已具备通过宇宙大筛选的条件之一，届时我们将成为星际公民，人类文明也将得以延绵不断。
The first step toward interplanetary habitat is to reduce the cost of travel, which is what SpaceX was founded to do - first by building recoverable rockets and then by building reusable mega-ships with ever-increasing carrying capacity. As of earlier this year, SpaceX had successfully reused 79 rockets to deliver cargo to the space station and send ordinary people into space. We have also designed and built the largest launch vehicle in history, the Starship, which can carry 100 passengers and supplies at a time. In the future, we plan to build at least 1,000 Starships to send groups of pioneers to Mars to build a self-sustaining city.
实现跨星球栖息的第一步是降低旅行成本，这正是太空探索技术公司成立的初衷——我们先是打造可回收的火箭，再通过打造可重复使用的巨型飞船以不断提高运载能力。截至今年年初，太空探索技术公司已成功实现79次火箭复用飞行，将货物运送到空间站并将普通人送往太空。我们还设计打造了史上最大运载火箭——“星舰”（Starship），一次可运载100位乘客以及物资。未来，我们计划打造至少1000艘“星舰”，将一批批拓荒者送到火星，以建设一个自给自足的城市。
As technology continues to change lives at an accelerating pace and the world evolves, life is more than simply solving one problem after another. We all want to wake up in the morning full of anticipation for the future and rejoice in what is to come. I hope more people will join us in our fight to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. I also welcome more like-minded Chinese partners to join us in exploring clean energy, artificial intelligence, human-machine collaboration, and space exploration to create a future worth waiting for.
随着科技改变生活的进程不断加速，世界发展日新月异，生活不仅仅是简单地解决一个又一个问题。我们都希望能在早晨醒来时满心期待着未来，为即将发生的事情欢欣鼓舞。我希望能有更多人和我们一起，为加速世界向可持续能源的转变而奋斗。我也欢迎而更多志同道合的中国伙伴和我们一起，投身于清洁能源、人工智能、人机协同乃至太空领域的探索，共同创造值得期待的明天。
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