Timothy Hopper
During the last few months since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the perception of most of the countries of the world about the war in Ukraine has been formed not according to the western framework; and now they see the continuation of the conflict as a geopolitical game in which the west, instead of solving the Ukraine crisis, is trying to weaken Russia and does not intend to back down from aiming to discredit it.
The west was aware that the expansion of NATO in Russia’s security environment is a red line for Moscow. On the other hand, having the vital energy artery of Europe, Russia thought it can maintain this security red line and adjust its relations with Europe and America based on its own geopolitical goals and achievement. However, not only did Russia not remove the threat, but Moscow’s actions up to this point have backfired and created a front against it that has even placed the eastern and northern countries of Europe against it.
Currently, Ukraine is the victim of a proxy war between Russia and America, and the important issue for Washington and Moscow is neither the independence of Ukraine nor the complete destruction of this country, but the desire and will of both sides of the war to defend an order based on the rules of the logic of military force. Therefore, the war in Ukraine, as a historical turning point for which there is no imminent end, has a painful end for the Ukrainians and even global security. These conditions have created a situation that has complicated the probability of reaching a political agreement.
The global hatred of proxy wars, which is the result of the complications of the open competition between Russia and the United States in Ukraine, has led to a deep international dislike of the United States and Europe, as well as Russia, whose military interventions to protect their interests in Africa, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen over the last half century have left nothing but death and destruction.
Beijing, Moscow, Delhi, and Tehran consider Russia’s economic blockade and its destructive economic and security consequences as a national and global threat, and even in the United Nations General Assembly, in which Russia’s aggression against Ukraine was condemned by an overwhelming majority of 141 votes, abstained in order to stay away from the West’s confrontation with Russia as much as possible.
As the leader of the African continent, South Africa also blamed the United States for its past military follies in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya during the discussion about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the Ukraine war at the United Nations. South Africa also listed the United States and its Western allies as violators of the UN Charter, who seek to gain their geopolitical interests against Russia by supporting the UN resolution condemning Moscow.
The actions of these countries against the United States first of all reflect the challenges that Washington is facing to show a united front in support of Ukraine and condemn Russia as an aggressor. Except for America’s close friends and military allies in Europe and East Asia, most countries in the world are not interested in joining the US campaign to isolate Russia. It is natural that in the process of the war in Ukraine, proceeding between the two major military powers, we will face a world in the future in which either a new era of multi-polarity or absolute unilateralism will prevail; a new era in which, without a doubt, either the United States or Russia is no longer considered a military superpower.
In fact, at the end of the war in Ukraine, we are certainly not going to return to the same world we were in before the war. In the future, a new world order based on the final outcome of the war will be formed and will define and outline the final form of the peace treaty between Russia and America in the future order. Therefore, the non-aligned countries of the world should have realistic prospects in mind and think about how peace will be achieved, or how to prevent the third world war. Therefore, the countries of the world should not be inclined to adopt a completely anti-Russian or anti-American position. The United Nations, which has always been under relentless attack by veto power, will lose its international and mediating advantages even more by exercising the power of the victorious side of the war-unless it is revived.
It can be said with certainty that there is a decisive issue in the future of the Ukrainian war: that the war can only have one winner under the name of America or Russia. If Russia wins the war, with the military power it will gain in cooperation with its partners such as China, India, and Iran, it will dominate a large part of the rich natural sources and human resources of the world and can easily create a “uni-multipolar world”.
Undoubtedly, India, the main rival of China in the region, will become the most important supporter of the United States by creating a delicate balance in maintaining constructive relations with the West, and a traditional neutral global actor will act against China. This condition can restore the lost trust of the United States to it, and even countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, who had lost their trust in Washington and turned to China and Russia, will have no choice. To protect what they have developed in the framework of strategic diversity, they will return to cooperation with the United States, because there will no longer be a path to continue cooperation with Moscow and Beijing.
Even countries that have gradually, especially since the Trump era, come to the conclusion that the era of the United States is over must return to the world of American unilateralism with a rapid transformation. Even India and China cannot use dissatisfaction with America as a balancing factor in foreign policy if America wins over Russia in this war and appear hesitant in regulating relations with the United States.
Trying to be optimistic, it can be said that perhaps from the day after the end of the war in Ukraine due to the victory of the US or Russia, the observer or supporting countries will not participate in the global competition between the Kremlin and the White House for at least a few decades; saving themselves from falling into the abyss of conflict between the great powers, because the common mutual threats of the Cold War between the West and Russia, which plagued many countries of the world, will end forever.
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