Aaron David Miller and Steven Simon
With rare exception, the Middle East has become a place where U.S. presidential ideas, especially big ones, go to die. Wisely recognizing this cruel reality, U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration tried to steer clear of the region through much of the past year and a half.
But the siren call of Arab hydrocarbons amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising gas prices have forced Biden back in. Still, as he travels to the region, Biden confronts big challenges—the need to increase oil supply; a broken Israeli-Palestinian peace process; looming tensions between Iran and Israel; and an uncomfortable meeting with a Saudi crown prince, whose country Biden once deemed a “pariah”—that only offer the prospect of incremental gains.
The Biden administration may well succeed in facilitating progress in Israel’s emerging relationships with Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states. But in truth, Biden’s priorities lie elsewhere. And he will be rightly wary of making deep commitments that might drag the United States deeper into a dysfunctional and disorderly region that is likely to remain so for years to come. Israel and the Arabs will take what the U.S. president has to give, but they are acutely aware of his diminishing political currency and have begun to look past him toward the return of former U.S. President Donald Trump or his avatar.
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