John Kraus
On July 13th, two Chinese defense attaches gained admittance to an invitees-only address delivered by Vice President Kamala Harris for the 51st annual Pacific Islands Forum in Fiji. The two CCP officials, posed as journalists for the Xinhua news agency, were ultimately identified and escorted from the room. Such acts of subterfuge are emblematic of the growing geopolitical tension in the South Pacific, as the United States and China continue to jockey for leverage in this strategically significant part of the world.
Last week’s PIF revealed manifold concerns shared by the participant island nations, namely climate change, COVID-19, and the eroding architecture of the forum itself. This year, several island nations have made a sharp about-face from traditional institutions, jarring actors like the United States and Australia out of complacency. In April, the Solomon Islands drew international attention after it signed a shadowy security agreement with China, dubbed by some Australian lawmakers as the “worst foreign policy failure since 1945.” More recently, two Micronesian states, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands, announced their withdrawal from the annual Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). As evidenced by a US leader’s first ever address to the forum on Wednesday, the event marks a pivot point for Western powers seeking to gain more influence in the region amid heightened security concerns stirred by Beijing.
The PIF was designed to encourage policy consensus among the Pacific Island nations in order to compensate for the islands’ small size and relative anonymity on the international stage. Often referred to as the “Pacific family,” it is this unity that has safeguarded the region from foreign interventionism in the past. But in recent years, the forum has begun to fray amid internal squabbling between the political leaders of the island nations. More important for US military planners, environmentalists, and business leaders alike, the maneuvers are seen as a product of China’s push to gain influence within the region on all fronts, from increased policing and biodata collection to the extraction of the South Pacific’s vast bounty of natural resources. Relinquishing leverage to the CCP in the region could help fulfill ambitions to expand its global military reach into the Second Island Chain.
Notwithstanding, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese made assurances last week that the Solomon Islands’ security deal with China will not lead to the construction of naval bases on the islands’ shores. Despite Albanese’s recent comments, the Chinese still have the contractual backing to send its military forces to the Solomons to “protect the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects” specifically related to the Belt and Road Initiative. To date, Beijing has signed BRI cooperation agreements with ten Pacific Island countries, including the Solomons. Experts speculate that such projects could serve as fronts for developing strategic airfields and ports down the line.
These developments call for the United States and Australia to reenergize their respective South Pacific policies. The Solomon Islands lay within 2,000 nautical miles of Australia, which would take a carrier strike group at least one week to cover under optimal conditions. Kiribati and the Marshall Islands, moreover, are the closest sovereign island nations to Hawaii in the South Pacific. Last year, China drew up plans to upgrade an airstrip on a remote Kiribati island that was once a US base for military aircraft during World War II. Constructing what would virtually be a fixed Chinese aircraft carrier in Kiribati would allow PLA military assets to sit along crucial sea lanes connecting Australia and the rest of the South Pacific to Hawaii, raising the potential for interdictions. The US holds an advantage in other parts of the region, thanks to its system of Compacts of Free Association (COFAs). These agreements allow unfettered US military access to Freely Associated States (FAS), including Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Micronesia. In 2020, Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper became the first SecDef to visit Palau, where he stressed the importance of renewing their COFA, which is set to expire after FY 2023. The Biden Administration should look to arrange a similar agreement with Kiribati to prevent a PLA buildup on any of its 33 sparsely populated atolls.
China’s forays into the South Pacific could also further diminish the area’s exceptional biodiversity: Kiribati and the Marshall Islands together contain over 2 million square miles of exclusive economic zone. Kiribati alone covers over 1.3 million square miles of ocean, roughly the size of the entire Indian subcontinent. With over 17,000 distant water fishing vessels, China’s heavily subsidized fleet has dropped nets around foreign EEZs without compunction, most notably near the famously diverse Galapagos Islands. Two years ago, 340 Chinese vessels were spotted by the Ecuadorian navy just outside the rich islands’ economic zone, stoking alarm over those waters’ future. Best known, China’s sand and cement dredging operations of up to five square miles in the South China Sea have buried coral reefs in favor of deep harbors for its expanding maritime fleet. Based on this dismal record, any attempts made by the CCP’s foreign ministry to promote safe and equitable maritime practices should be met with deep skepticism by Pacific Island leaders.
So long as the US remains actively engaged in the region, the Pacific Islands are better served by cooperating with Washington. The South Pacific is a critical opportunity for the Biden Administration to counter China’s ambitions while also championing the responsible use of the marine environment. Vice President Kamala Harris’ address to PIF participants demonstrates the administration’s intent to deepen its engagement with the region. Delivered through video, the Vice President announced a patchwork of measures designed to cultivate closer ties with island nations, including the opening of a US embassy in the Solomons, Kiribati and Tonga, along with the first permanent US envoy to the Pacific. In addition, Harris announced the provision of $600 million in funding, three times the current mark, to enhance maritime security, promote climate adaptation and infrastructure policies, and stave off illegal fishing operations.
The measures outlined by Vice President Harris target the Pacific Islands’ most urgent needs. Low-lying Micronesian Islands, such as Kiribati and the Marshalls, are some of the most vulnerable sites to climate change in the world. Most research suggests that these atoll nations will become uninhabitable by the end of the century due to sea level rise, first through the contamination of limited potable water supplies due to flooding, and ultimately, their full submergence into the sea. The United States would boost its position by providing climate-adaptive infrastructure aid to stimulate job growth and reduce the allure of high-risk blank checks from the Chinese.
The United States should keep the Pacific Family together. The region has long been known as part of an “American Lake,” and will become an ever more vital part of its efforts to prevent China from dominating the South and Central Pacific. In addition, the US administration has a sterling opportunity to live up to its interest in lessoning the blows of climate change. It can check both boxes if it chooses to engage further with the South Pacific.
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